football picks making money

When it comes to picking football games against the spread, I like to wait until week 4 before I start to do so.  This gives me time to get a feel for the teams, and let some trends develop.  In college it also gets into conference play, which is a little more predictable than non conference games, especially with all of the cupcake’s that the big schools schedule. 

I started tweeting (@Dustin_Dominiak) my picks for both College and NFL games starting in week 4, because I wanted a source that would give evidence of my picks.  I hate when someone says that they went 5-0 or some other ridiculous record picking games over the weekend, but have no proof of those picks. Since college started a week before the NFL I have 3 weeks of picks for college and 2 for the NFL.  I’m off to a pretty good start, especially in college.  I started the year with the target win percentage of 62%, which would be 9% above the break even mark (remember with the vig you have to win 53% of your picks in order to break even).  I’m currently sitting at 60% winners, so I’m close to my target percentage, but I still have room for improvement.

I started out on fire with my college picks going 3-0 in my first week.  I followed that up with a 3-2 performance, then last week I went 3-3 leaving me with an overall record of 9-5 and a win percentage of 64.29%.  Not bad at all, right where I want it to be.  I must say though, that win percentage is being driven strictly by my first 3 picks, and if my recent trend of .500 picking continues that win percentage will be below my target mark before I know it.

The NFL I started the complete opposite of the college.  I went 1-2 in my first week, and then 2-1 last week (much better).  That leaves me at 3-3 overall or at 50% win percentage.  So far this is a money losing venture, but don’t fret, we’ll get it turned around.

So what am I talking about here?  Well if you’d been following my picks on twitter, and placing those bets yourself (remember sports gambling is only legal in 4 of the 50 states) you’d be making money right now.  Say you bet 110 to win 100 on each game (10% vig, which is why you have to win 53% to make money) you’d have won $1,200 (12 * 100) and lost $880 (110 * 8) for a net profit of $320.  So follow me on twitter, @Dustin_Dominiak, and visit Las Vegas to place your bets, if you catch me on a really hot weekend (like week 4 of college football) you’d be able to pay for your trip.

I'm just one man, and this is my opinion.

Thanks for reading,

Dustin Dominiak