NFL week 8 Thursday night Football San Diego at Denver

Okay, I'm a little late getting this posted so I'm going to get right to it.  Take San Diego and the points.  Currently you can get San Diego +9.5 at even money, and I don't think you can get better value than that.

In the past 5 years when divisional opponents play on a Thursday night and the spread is 7 points or greater, the underdog is 7-2 ATS.

Since coming to Denver, Peyton Manning is only 4-6 ATS versus AFC west opponents when favored by 7 points or more.  Further that he is just 2-3 since last season.

San Diego is 7-0-4 ATS in last 11 in Denver.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in last 6 meetings between these 2 teams.

Road team is 12-4-5 ATS in the last 21 games.

There you have it, value and situation sit with the underdog Chargers.

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NFL week 7 Arizona at Oakland

Arizona -4 at Oakland

This is my lock of the week pick.  Arizona is one of the strongest teams in the NFL this year, and that’s been with a revolving door at QB.  Palmer is back for a second week in a row, and this isn’t a division opponent so don’t look for the Raiders to be up for it.  The Cardinals defense is amazing this year. 

Not only do 4 of my 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Cardinals in this game, but it also has 3 key numbers, including on the 1 system that disagrees and puts value on the Raiders.  I have the Cardinals as getting 3 points of value in my game expectations systems, and that number has been 7-4 so far this season.  My vegas line system has the Cardinals getting 2.5 points of value and that number so far this year is 4-3.  Finally, the one that drove home the selection for me, the outlier of the 5 systems, my 13/14 system has the Raiders getting 1 point of value, but that number is only 1-5 in the 6 times it’s come up, and the home team fails to cover by -7.5 points.  Yes, you read that right, in the 6 times the home underdog has had value of 1 point, they fail to cover by more than a touchdown.  Arizona wins BIG.

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NFL week 7 Atlanta at Baltimore

Atlanta +7 at Baltimore

Yes, Atlanta lost at home to the Bears last week and they have put up back to back stink shows.  Yes, the Ravens dominated the Bucs last week at home.  But each week in the NFL is like a new life, you never know what is going to happen.  4 of my 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Falcons in this game.  Also, 3 of those 4 systems in agreement are on key numbers for the Falcons.

The most convincing for me of the key numbers is the result from my game expectations system.  That system shows the Falcons as having 1 point of value, and for all games this year with 1 point of value they have yet to lose ATS with a record of 6-0.  Look for that trend to continue here this week.

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NFL week 7 Cleveland at Jacksonville

Cleveland -6 at Jacksonville

Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL.  No, I’m not saying that because of record.  I’m saying it because ever ratings system that I’ve seen has the Jaguars on the bottom, and it’s not even close.  Cleveland is much improved this year, and they keep getting better each week.  They needed a monster come from behind at half time victory to get over the Titans, but that just shows this team doesn’t stop. 

Only 3 of my 5 systems agree on the value with the Browns, but the 2 systems that say the value is on the Jaguars are on key numbers for the Browns.  For example, my 13/14 system says that the Jaguars have 3 points of value in this game, but when I look at the past results of home underdogs with 3 points value in my 13/14 summary I see they are only 3-5 against the spread, and miss the cover by an average of -2.5 points.  Cleveland rolls on the road again.

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NFL Week 7 Miami at Chicago

Chicago -3 vs Miami

This is an intriguing matchup.  Miami is coming off a tough home loss to Green Bay, who won in the final seconds.  Chicago is coming off a road win at Atlanta.  The dolphins are 1-1 on the road so far this year, and the Bears are somehow 0-2 at home.  Obviously being win less at home is something the Bears will want to change.  

All 5 systems that I maintain show value on the Bears side.  When all 5 systems agree, the results have been split so far this year, but 2 of the systems fall on key system numbers, that have generated excellent results, and 2 more that are nearly split 50/50.  Both teams have struggled with turnovers this year.  Look for Cutler to have a good day, and the Bears to get their first home win of the season.

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NFL week 6 ATS best bets

Last weeks picks went 2-1, I'll take it.  This week we have 4 games for you, and a few suggestions on teaser plays.  Little time to waste so lets get straight to the picks.

Cleveland pk vs Pittsburgh
Second meeting for these teams.  It was a tale of 2 halves in the first meeting with Pittsburgh dominating the first half and Cleveland running the 2nd.  Cleveland in coming off the biggest come from behind win in team history last week in the 2nd half on the road at Tennessee.  Cleveland needs to get it going for 60 minutes and not 30, and I think this is the week they get it together.  They play tough at home, and Pittsburgh has struggled on the road this year.  Take the home team.

Atlanta -3 vs Chicago
Atlanta wins at home and loses on the road.  Devin Hester has his best game of the season against his former coach Lovie Smith, and I think he will put forth an even bigger effort against his former team.  The Falcons have too much speed for the Bears defense.  Granted the Falcons defense hasn't been anything to write home about this year, but the offense on the turf in a dome is deadly.  Falcons win the close one.

Tampa Bay +3.5 vs Baltimore
Since week 1 Tampa Bay is the most improved team so far this season.  They play really tough grind it out football.  They dropped a heart breaker last week on the road to New Orleans, which is a really tough place to play.  Baltimore looks good but not great.  They have been running a balance offense, which has helped them this year, but they haven't faced a defense like Tampa's yet this year.  Look for the Bucs to keep it close, and maybe get the outright win.

San Diego -7 @ Oakland
What can I say, best team in the NFL taking on the worst.  Granted this is on the road, but it doesn't matter the Raiders don't have any of the type of players that the Chargers do.  The Chargers offense is so good, and so balanced this year, teams don't know where the ball is going.  They probably have the most depth at WR than they have ever had in Rivers career, and he is hitting all of his targets.  Look for the Chargers to keep the blowouts going, and win big this week.

For a few teaser options here is what I'm looking at.
6.5 point teaser
Green Bay +3.5 and Cincinnati -0.5
Taking the Packers as a -3 favorite and turning them into a 3.5 dog is great, especially since you get the hook in this one.  Cincinnati will look to bounce back at home against Carolina after a stinker on the road to New England last week.  Both teams get the win, and we get the cash

6.5 point teaser
Atlanta +3.5 and San Diego -1
2 teams we outlined above, but with a little extra security.  Now we only need an SD win, easily done, and we get the hook with the Falcons again.

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NFL Thursday Night Football Indianapolis at Houston free pick

Thursday night football at its finest tonight with this AFC South battle.  Houston is much improved over last year, as expected, but Indianapolis is flying high on offense.  Andrew Luck is coming into his own as a QB in the NFL, and keeps putting up big numbers.  This will be his biggest test of the season so far as he is traveling on a short week, and going up against a tough Houston defense at home. 
Houston doesn't have very high rankings in defense yards allowed per game or passing yards allowed, but they haven't kept points off the board, bending but never breaking.  They have a tendency to stay calm, and happy to keep the games close and hope to pull them out in the end.  They've been a rushing team this year behind Arian Foster, and Deandre Hopkins has become a legit threat on the outside in his 2nd year.  The biggest reason for the turnaround in 2014 for Houston has been because of the run game.  They are averaging almost 32 rushing attempts per game, allowing them to control the clock and the flow of the game.  Also, they aren't playing from behind as much, and aren't forced to air it out in hopes of getting back in games, but I didn't watch a lot of Houston last year so maybe they fell behind because they were throwing the ball and not completing passes. 

Indianapolis defense hasn't faced much rushing this year as the offense has gotten out and put points up on the board and forced other teams to throw to try to get back in the game quickly.  The colts defense is giving up nearly 5 yards per carry as they are still allowing 102 ypg on the ground on only 22 attempts.  That's not good against a team that is rushing the ball 32 times a game and averaging 127 yards per game.  Indianapolis has controlled the ball in it's first 5 games averaging nearly 75 plays per game, which is 18 more per game than their opponents.  Houston is running a lot less plays on offense, averaging almost 60 plays per game while facing 64 plays per game.  I don't believe the play differential will be as large in this game as in prior Colts games.

Final thought on this game is turnovers.  So far this year Indianapolis has 3 fumbles and 6 interceptions on offense and 4 fumble recoveries and 6 interceptions on defense leaving them with a -1 turnover ratio.  Houston has only fumbled the ball twice while recovery 7 and has thrown 6 interceptions while picking off 5 leaving them with +4 in the turnover department.

As long as Houston keeps control of the game and ball they will keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset.  Take the home team and the points in this one.

NFL week 5 Monday Night Football free pick

Well the 3 games I wrote about yesterday went 2-1, not bad.  But there is still one game left in the week and it represents a chance to get another win.  Here are my thoughts on tonight's game.

Of the 5 systems that I maintain one of them is what I call game expectations.  A brief explanation of what I do is; enter the number of rush attempts, rush yards, pass attempts, pass yards, int's (both off and def), fumbles (both off and def) and missed field goals.  Each of those categories has a point total assigned to it, once all is added up and home field advantage is added in the difference is the line.  Any variance between that difference and the line is the value.  

It's not that complicated once I see what average stats are for those with the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined and also the 2014 season alone.  It's a little time consuming and I should spend more time with it, but it's been my most successful system so far this year.  In weeks 1-3 the teams it said had value on them were 10-6 ATS in each week.  In week 4 that record dropped to 7-6, but so far this week the results are 10-4.  

In drilling into those results some more I see there are 3 key value numbers: 1 (5-0 ATS), 2 (6-2 ATS), 3 (7-2 ATS) and 8 (7-2 ATS).  All of those are 75% or greater ATS.  Oh and that counts pushes as being incorrect, so those games like Cleveland on Sunday (also a GE 3) get counted in the loss column instead of wins because it was a push and the system was incorrect in predicting value.  We got our money back at least with that one, so the percentages could be even better!!

So what does this have to do with anything?  Well it just so happens that the Redskins are on one of those key numbers.  My game expectations line is Seattle -4, but since the line is Seattle -7 then we have 3 points of value with the Redskins.  And 3 has been covering 78% so for this season.  This is the 3rd game this week with a GE value of 3, the others were Cleveland (pushed the bet but counted as incorrect), and Houston which covered.

When I look at my 4 other systems 3 of them agree with my GE system and show value on Washington.  The only outlier of the 5 systems is the one I call Value Rating, and when it is the lone outlier the ATS record is 3-1.

So if you need some action tonight take the Redskins.  I'd keep it small though.  

Thanks for stopping by, check back later for next weeks picks.  And as always be kind and follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak 

NFL week 5 free game picks

Earlier in the week I posted some games that represented 2.5 points or more of value compared to my vegas line, and since some of those lines have move and now only 3 of those original games are left.  Those weren't my weekly picks though, as they were just the results of one system.  Here are my 3 picks for the week.

New Orleans -10 vs Tampa Bay
You'll need to buy this down from -10.5, but I prefer the key number.  New Orleans has struggled on the road so far this season, but have covered and won the only home game they played.  They still have 7 home games left and only 5 road games, so they can still turn season around, and they need to do that with a big win this week.  Tampa Bay is coming off a road upset of Pittsburgh, and New Orleans was blown out by Dallas.  People are over reacting to that, and staying away from New Orleans.  I think that is a mistake.  The Super dome is one of the hardest places for road teams to play, and New Orleans will want to make a statement.  Look for them to win big here.

San Diego -6.5 vs NY Jets
The Chargers are playing extremely well right now, while the Jets have somethings that still need to be figured out, and now they have to travel across the country to play the Chargers.  Doesn't sound like a great recipe for success.  The chargers passing game is doing extremely well right now, and Rivers has lots of weapons at his disposal.  The Jets, who were my sleeper pick for the year, have been disappointing on defense, especially in stopping the pass.  The Chargers pull out a great one here.

Buffalo +7 @ Detroit
Yes Detroit has a very stout defense, especially against the run.  Last week was the first time this season the lions allowed 100+ rushing yards.  Buffalo is a run first team and they are actually averaging 28 rushing attempts and 122 yards rushing per game, which is almost identical to what the lions gave up last week to the jets.  Looking deeper into this, the lions offensive statistics nearly match the bills defense statistics in yards and attempts for both rushing and passing.  If both teams hit season averages, then I think the Bills can keep it close or pull the upset.  The line hasn't moved off the key number of 7, I was hoping to get a few more points out of this, but doesn't seem likely.  The move at QB for the Bills doesn't frighten me as I actually think it makes them slightly better.  Look for the Bills to continue to pound the ball on the ground, and then take advantage of the Lions sucking in the secondary to stop it and going over the top.  Buffalo and the points.

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NFL week 5 Vegas bets

One of the systems that I maintain is what I call the Vegas line.  It's basically a power rating system, but one that uses much smaller point values assigned to each team than my other power rating system.  In reviewing this ranking results from the first 4 weeks of the NFL season, something spectacular jumped out at me.  It is all based on the value the Vegas line calculated compared to the spread.  Teams with 2.5 or more points of value, according to the Vegas line, are 11-4 against the spread through week 4.  That's a 73% winning margin, and 20% higher than what you need to win to break even.

I've compiled the data for week 5 and I've found 5 teams that have 2.5 points or more value ATS.  Now I'm not sure that the 73% winning margin will continue, but it won't hurt to track for a few weeks and see how it progresses.  Here are the teams with 2.5 points of value or more for week 5.

Tennessee +1.5 vs Cleveland.
According to the Vegas line this should be a pick em game on a neutral field, but adjusting for home field and Tennessee should be -2.5 point favorite.  Since they are an underdog we are getting 4 points of value.

Atlanta +4 at NY Giants
Even after adjusting for home field, Atlanta should only be a 1 point underdog according to the Vegas line.  That leaves 3 points of value.  And who doesn't need an extra field goal every now and then.

Houston +6 @ Dallas
The Vegas line has 3 points of value for Houston, and is saying that on a neutral site this would be a pick em game.

Buffalo +7 @ Detroit
This game is also showing 3 points of value for Buffalo as they should only be a 4 point underdog on the road.

New England +1.5 vs Cincinnati
I know this seems like a tough pill to swallow based on year to date results for both teams, but the Vegas line is showing 2.5 points of value with New England.  Which makes sense because I don't remember the last time the Patriots were underdogs at home with Bellicheck and Brady together.

That's the Vegas line results.  I'm still compiling the data for my other 4 systems, but wanted to pass this note along.  Check back later for my official week 5 picks, and as always follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 4 picks best bets

As covered in the NFL recap, since the disastrous 0-4 week 1 the best bets picks posted have been doing well, getting us back to 9-8 on the season, YAY!!  We laid a dud on Thursday night football, and I even spoke to a buddy about how Cousins performed too well against the Eagles last week and a lot of pressure would be on him to play that way ever week.  Cousins got down, then he pressed and forced passes and threw interceptions.  Even though all 5 systems agreed on Washington, I had a hard time pulling the trigger, regretfully I did anyways, and now the record is at 9-9.  That was short lived.
Here are the rest of the games for this weekend that stand out.

Chicago +1.5 vs Green Bay
As we learned last week, wait for the line to move before grabbing the points.  Green Bay is a public team, and will get a lot of money from the public to back them.  That will move the line and then we get even better value with the Bears.  Four of the five systems used all agree that the value in this game is with Chicago, and actually all but 1 of those 4 think they should be favored (that is due to the Bears being at home and being adjusted for home field, on a neutral field Green Bay would be favored slightly), and 1 thinks they should be 0.5 point underdog.  This will probably move to +2 or maybe even +2.5 and that's when we strike, but realistically any points here with the home team is a good play.

Philadelphia +5 @ San Francisco
The Eagles are playing well despite slow starts to all 3 games so far this season needing to come from behind to win in all 3.  San Francisco is a disaster in disguise, needed 2 defensive touchdowns against the Cowboys to get their only win this season.  The 49ers have been turnover prone, and throwing the ball to much.  They dominated last year utilizing the run.  Hopefully the late afternoon start means the Eagles offense shows up for 4 quarters, and if it does the 49ers could be in a lot of trouble, and Jim Harbaugh will be thinking about taking over for Brady Hoke at Michigan next year.  Eagles pull the upset!

Dallas +3 vs New Orleans
Just like Chicago we are going to be patient and let this line move a little bit hoping to get more value with this play.  4 of the 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Cowboys for this game, and that they should only be a 1 point underdog at the most.  The Cowboys only loss this year was to San Francisco, as discussed above.  Sure the defense hasn't been stellar, but they have been better than what people think.  New Orleans finally got a win last week, but that was against Minnesota without AP and at home.  New Orleans is 0-2 on the road this year, and both games have been settled by a field goal or less.  Until NO starts to win big on the road, we aren't laying any chalk with them, as the allegedly improved defense continues to give up plays and points.  Be patient and let the line move, as I'm sure 75% of the public will be on the Saints.

NY Jets +2 vs Detroit
This has an opportunity to get to +3, and so take a patient approach and see if you get a better line.  This is another game where the public is all over the Lions and while occasionally the public get's it right, the majority of the time they are wrong.  Detroit is coming off a big win against Green Bay, but it was because of the defense that they won the game and nothing to do with the offense.  The Jets defense is way better than the Packers, and the Lion have to go on the road to play this game, so I expect them to struggle slightly.  Plus think about it this way, each week there are a few games that you look and are like, whoa I can get __________ -2, I'm in.  It looks to good to be true to be backing the Lions this week.  Add in the fact that all 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Jets, and that the 2 most accurate of the 5 so far this season call for them to be favorites, and I'm backing the J-E-T-S, Jets!, Jets!, Jets!

Take those 4, add in Thursday night and you get 5 games for the week.  Two other games that the systems liked that I couldn't pull the trigger on were Carolina +3.5 (Baltimore has great run defense, Carolina has struggled to run) and Miami -3.5 (who knows what Miami team will show up in London).  We know we're starting 0-1 this week do to the flop of Thursday, but we will be ending 4-1.  Good luck this weekend, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL Thursday Night Football NY Giants at Washington Redskins

It was another good week in week 3, with the 8 teams that matched on 4 of our 5 systems or better going 5-3 ATS.  The one team that matched in all 5 systems actually was one of the losses.  Also, depending on when you took the Browns and the points did it depend on your outcome of a loss, push or win, as all 3 were possibilities.  Out of the 8 teams, 7 were suggested with the Saints being left off because of uncertainties with team personnel, turns out the Vikings were without Peterson so this was a better play that initially thought.  So the 7 gave us a record of 4-3, bringing our season total to 8-9, and still improving on that initial 0-4 start to the season.

But all of that is in the past, and now it's time to talk about the future.  The future starts tonight with the NY Giants at Washington Redskins with the Redskins currently a -3.5 point favorite.  All 5 of the systems used match on Redskins getting value at -3.5, as they indicate that it should be somewhere between -4 and -5.5, which would agree with the line opening of -5.  In looking at the season stats through 3 weeks we see that this game will be decided on the ground.  Both teams are averaging around 30 carries per game, and while they are both also averaging over 100 yards per game (NY Giants 109, Redskins 135), the Giants average has greatly benefited from last week against Houston when they rushed for 192 yards.  The Redskins defense is only allowing 65 rushing yards per game, while the Giants are allowing 106.  This indicates that the Redskins would have an easier time to get to their season average than the Giants, allowing them to control the ball and the tempo of the game.  The run will also set up the pass, and give Cousins (second start this year) a better opportunity to succeed.
Also this year the Redskins are averaging 71 plays per game, which is quite high.  The Giants are averaging 64 plays a game.  Surely the Redskins average is given a boost from last weeks shoot out with the Eagles, but a 7 play difference is a touchdown drive.  Look for the Redskins to control the possession of time, and get the easy win.  Just to be on the safe side, pay the extra juice and buy the hook.
Washington Redskins -3

Good luck tonight, and check back tomorrow for the rest of the weekends action.  Oh and be kind, follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak.

NFL week 3 best bets

Last week our picks went 4-2 ATS, giving us a 4-6 mark on the season, as we are still digging out of that week 1 0-4 bomb.

Before I get into our week 3 picks I want to provide a little explanation on what we’re looking for.  We manage 5 different systems, 2 based on power ratings, and 3 based on score sheets.  Last week we had 2 systems go 8-8 ATS, 2 go 9-7 ATS and the 5^th went 10-6 ATS.  That last one was extra special because it was a score sheet based on what we expected each team to do with running/passing and turnovers/missed field goals.  We were pleasantly surprised at how simple it is to make the correct assumptions once you have a formidable backlog of stats to help make those decisions.  Anyways, last week we had 5 games where all 5 of our system agreed on who would cover the spread, and those 5 games went 4-1 ATS.  We had 3 more games where 4 of our 5 systems agreed, and those 3 games went 2-1 ATS, so of the 8 games that at least 4 of our 5 systems agreed on the ATS record was 6-2, which would be a phenomenal day. 

For week 3 we have 1 game in which all 5 of our systems agree, and 7 games in which 4 of our 5 systems agree.  Below are our picks based on those systems results.

Atlanta -6.5 vs Tampa Bay

Atlanta struggled on the road last week at Cincinnati, but that was a game outdoors, and against a better defense than New Orleans.  Tampa Bay has a better defense than Atlanta’s, but they are racking up the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, and are going on the road for the first time this year after losing 2 games at home.  Atlanta returning home, coming off a loss and laying less than a touchdown against an inferior opponent is the type of play we’re looking for.  4 of our 5 systems agree on this game with the lone outlier being the 13/14 score sheet, which is weighted down by the poor performances Atlanta put forth last year.

Green Bay +1.5 @ Detroit

In one power rating we have GB as a -7.5 favorite, in the other they are a -1.5 favorite.  The game expectations score sheet (went 10-6 last week) has them as a -7 point favorite.  Finally the 13/14 average score sheet has Green Bay as a pick em, with a line variance of 2.  This score sheet has had a line variance of 2 shows up 10 times since the start of the 2013 season, and has a record of 8-2 ATS, and cover the spread by an average of 6 points per.  Green Bay wins on the road.

Denver +5 @ Seattle

Nevermind the super bowl rematch, and that Denver wants revenge or that Seattle is out to prove the SB wasn’t a fluke.  Just don’t think about that stuff.  One of our power ratings has Denver as +6, which is the one system that doesn’t agree with the other 4.  The other power rating has Denver as +3, which is due to Seattle having home field.  That rating system actually has these 2 teams as a pick em right now on a neutral field.  Our 13/14 score sheet has Denver as a -1 point favorite, with a line variance of 6, which in the 6 occurrences since 2013 is 5-1 with an average cover mark of 3 points per.  The 14 and GE score sheets both have this game graded as pick em.

Carolina -3.5 vs Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is a public team, so you should be able to get better value with Carolina as the week goes on, but if you want to get them -3 and buy the hook now, I think that is a smart play.  One of the power ratings systems has Carolina as -8.5 point favorite, while the other has them as -4.5 point favorite.  The 13/14 score sheet has Carolina as a -5 favorite and a line variance of 1, which is 12-6 in it’s last 18 and average cover of 3 points per. 

San Diego 2.5 @ Buffalo

San Diego should be favored in this game, plain and simple.  Perhaps the early start on the east coast for a west coast team is in play here, but that didn’t affect Arizona last week, and I don’t expect it to hurt SD this week.  The 2 power ratings systems have the Chargers as -2.5 and -1.5 point favorites.  The GE score sheet has them as a -5 point favorite

Cleveland 1.5 vs Baltimore

The 1 outlier in all of my systems is a power rating that says the Browns should be +2 instead of +1.5.  That’s it, 1 outlier over a half a point.  Cleveland is good, better than most expected.  Baltimore shook the drama of Ray Rice off for a 3 hour period to beat Pittsburgh, and have the extra rest, but they must go to the hostile environment that is Cleveland, which is never an easy thing to do, but they are no longer escaping from anything, nor are they facing a team that is going to throw the ball 40+ times a game.  Cleveland will pound the ball on the ground, and that will cause the Ravens problems.  Browns get back to back home wins

Arizona +3 vs San Francisco

Similar to the Cleveland game, I have 1 outlier in my 5 systems, and it calls for Arizona to be +3.5, so only a 0.5 point difference.  The other 4 systems have Arizona rated as a favorite.  They did play well on the east coast in an early game with a backup QB none the less.  San Francisco has a better offense and defense than the Giants do, but I don’t believe the offense is as good as San Diego, which Arizona was able to hold to 18 points.  The defense leads the way again.

Wait, that’s only 7 games selected, and we had 8 that met all 4 systems or better.  So which team are we leaving off?  Why New Orleans of course.  While it’s tempting to lay 9 points on the Saints at home against Minnesota that just got destroyed at home, that would be a trap.  Peterson is playing this week, and I don’t think the New Orleans defense will get 4 picks.  New Orleans is good at home, but they just aren’t playing like a championship team yet, and are stuck in shoot outs.  You don’t cover a 9 point spread in a shoot out, so we’ll sit this game out.

Thanks for checking in this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 2 best bets recap

Week 2 was much better than week 1.  The proper adjustments were made, and we marched to a 4-2 record on the week.  That brings our total NFL record to 4-6 through the first 2 weeks.  Here is a breakdown on what went right/wrong this week.

Pittsburgh +3 @ Baltimore

This was a bit of a disaster, and not the way I was hoping to start the week.  Baltimore looked like it was relieved to finally play and avoid the off field distractions that was the Ray Rice circus.  They focused that energy and executed.  They also ran the ball well, and didn’t make Flacco throw 40+ times.  Pittsburgh never got it going on offense.

Detroit +3 @ Carolina

What happens when you have 2 missed field goals, 2 fumbles and an interception?  You lose the game and don’t cover the spread.  That is exactly what happened here.  You have to protect the ball to win games, and the Lions just failed to do that.

Cincinnati -5 vs Atlanta

Cincy ran all over Atlanta.  It did cost them AJ Green.  As expected the New Orleans defense was overrated to start the year, and made the ATL offense look great instead of good. 

Houston -3 @ Oakland

This game was over at kickoff.  Houston defense showed up and shut down Oakland offense.  Take away the garbage time touchdown at the end of the game, and this was a clear blow out. 

St. Louis +5.5 @ Tampa Bay

I hated this game the whole time I had it played, but it worked out in the end.  The Rams defense finally looked like it should, and did benefit from Tampa trying to run the ball.  The offense stuck to the run, and was able to control the game, and they made just enough plays to come out with the victory.

Philadelphia +3 @ Indianapolis

Philly did it again, falling behind by 14 points going into half time only to come back and steal a win from Indy.  I couldn’t figure out why Philly wasn’t favored in this game, it must’ve been a pick em game and home field moved the needle to Indy.  Anyways the offense came through for Philly and Sproles/McCoy 2 headed backfield monster is going to be fun to watch all season.

That was week 2, come back in a couple of days for week 3 picks.  Again, week 2 was educational, and adjustments have been made.  Looking for an even better week in week 3.  As always, follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 2 best bets

Well our 4 picks from last week went 0-4, not a good start.  But we've bounced back and hit the books for week 2.  Week 1 was educational, and I think we made the proper adjustments.  Anyways there are 6 games we think are favorable at current lines.

Pittsburgh +3 @ Baltimore

In our power ratings we have Pittsburgh as +2.5 and +2, and the only reason for those figures is because Baltimore is getting home field points added to them.  On a neutral site this is a pk game or Pittsburgh slight favorite.  Baltimore throws the ball to much, and doesn't stick to the ground game.  Flacco is not a gunslinger, he's a game manager, as long as Baltimore keeps throwing 35+ times a game we will bet against them.

Detroit +3 @ Carolina

in the 2 power ratings we have Detroit should be 1.5 and 1, like Pittsburgh only a dog because Carolina is at home.  The Carolina defense will be tested in this game against Detroits potent offense.  Look for Carolina to run the ball a lot and try to control the clock.  also will try to keep Newton from getting hit.  with Detroit defense so strong up front, Carolina should struggle to run, and Detroit gets the upset.

Cincinnati -5 vs Atlanta

We have Cincy as a -7 and -5 point favorite in both ratings respectively.  Look for Cincy to run the ball more than in week 1, and control the clock better.  Atlanta and it's wide open offense benefited from New Orleans not being a ball control team.

Houston -3 @ Oakland

We have Houston as a -4 and -3.5 point favorite in my ratings systems.  The defense looks like it's old self, while Oakland struggled to move the ball on the road against the Jets.  Oakland could've been bothered by the 1 pm start on the east coast, but these are professionals and I don't accept that as an excuse.  We'll take the aggressive defense against the rookie QB

St. Louis +5.5 @ Tampa Bay

Ugh, I hate this game, but it has to be.  We have St. Louis as a 3.5 and 0.5 underdog in the 2 systems, so getting great value here.  This game is going to be slow and ugly and low scoring.  In those events we want the points.  Plus the week 1 loss at home against Minnesota will leave a bad taste in the mouths of betters and the Rams players alike.  While the bettors run to bet against them, the Rams will be pumped up to prove week 1 was a fluke.  Wait on this one to be pushed higher by the public and go against them.  

Philadelphia +3 @ Indianapolis

We have Philly as 2.5 point favorite in one system and a 2 point dog in the other, either way getting added points.  The Philly offense woke up in the 2nd half.  They run the ball very very well.  Jacksonville only scored off of turnovers/big plays.  Indy offense will be better, but I just don't think Indy can score enough to keep up with Philly.

Good Luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak for more wonderful opinions I have.

NFL week 1 picks

Here comes the NFL.  Well week 1 started with a blowout in Seattle, with the Seahawks picking up right where they left off.   This year I have an expanded set of data, and systems to use.  I’m incorporating 2 different sets of power ratings, as well as 2 different versions of scoring sheet calculations.  Through these I have 4 different views as to the outcome of the game, and believe they will help me eliminate the tougher games to gauge. Here are my week 1 picks.

Chicago -7 home vs Buffalo.  This is my top play this week.  Of my 2 power ratings one is right at -7 and the other is at -12.5.  Buffalo has struggled on offense all preseason and were forced to give 5 million to Orton because of such poor play from other QB’s on roster.  Chicago offense is awesome.  Look for a lot of big plays from them this week in year 2 under Trestman.  Last year the Bears had injuries on defense that hurt them, as they had the worst rushing defense in the league.  This year they are healthy, and have brought in key replacement players.  Too much fire power from the Bears in this game.

New Orleans -3 @ Atlanta.  NO is 13-3 vs Atlanta, so that’s a good start.  Also, NO improved the #4 ranked defense last year with the addition of Byrd at safety.  ATL lacks a decent pass rush, and Brees should have plenty of time to pick apart the secondary.  I have 2 different power ratings, one has the Saints a 5.5 point favorite the other a 3.5 point favorite.  With Atlanta built to air the ball out this year more than ever, and the Saints defense as strong as it is, I don’t think this will be as close as the experts think. 

St. Louis -4 home vs Minnesota.  This St. Louis defense is for real.  Minnesota’s offense struggles at times, and I don’t expect them to fare very well against such a good defense and on the road for the first week.  Last year StL was +8 in turnovers while Minnesota was -12, and I expect StL to win that battle in this game as well.  Minnesota’s power is in running the ball, and StL’s power is in defensive front 7.  It will be a long day for AP.  I have one power rating system with StL as a -8.5 point favorite and the other calling for them to be -4.5.

Kansas City -3 (buy the half point) home vs Tennessee.  My 2 systems have the Chiefs as a 10 point favorite in one and a 5.5 favorite in the other, so only laying 3 is tremendous value.  Last year KC was +18 in turnovers and Tennessee was +0.  I don’t expect KC to be that good in the turnovers department again this year, but against the Titans I do believe they will have the edge.  Tennessee is switching to a 3-4 defense from the 4-3, so that will give them a few problems.  I don’t see the new defense going on the road, to one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and keeping this game close. 

Thanks for stopping by, now go win some money.  As always good luck this weekend, and don’t forget to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak for more wonderful insight.

NFL Conference Champs - NFC

I like value plays, almost as much as I like cash flow, but value usually leads to cash flow, so it all works out.  And what better place to look for value than the NFL futures market, and the conference championships.
Today we are talking about the NFC, and the value that lies with 2 teams.  Again this doesn't mean that I believe these 2 teams will win the NFC championship, but I believe they have a better chance than the odds makers are giving them.  Everybody knows who the top 2 teams are in the NFC, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, but they are expensive to play in the futures market at +200, and you're better off betting them on the money line each week instead of making a future bet with them.
First up is the New Orleans Saints at +$1,000 meaning a bet of $100 will win you $1,000.  Lets be serious about this, Drew Brees is amazing, and is a top 3 QB in the league.  This offense will continue to put up big numbers each week.  They play their home games in the Super Dome, which is an unfair advantage right there, and almost guarantees 8 wins.  The defense was much improved last year, and should be even better in year 2 under Ryan as defensive coordinator.  Also, they added the 2nd best safety in the game to the secondary this season, that will obviously help.
My second play might be a bit more shocking, but it's the Chicago Bears also at +$1,000.  Like San Diego yesterday, this is year 2 of Treastman as the head coach, and teams always do better in year 2 of a new coach.  This offense is also poised to score a lot of points with great skill position players, and a very strong offensive line.  Cutler has never looked better, and Jeffries will be even better this year.  Also like the Saints, this defense should improve over last year.  The Bears defense took a step back last year, and I don't feel they ever found their identity.  That won't happen again this year.  Chicago has always been built around the defense, and the city won't accept what happened last year to happen again.  Look for improvement on both sides of the ball.

But I am just one man, and this is my opinion.

Dusitn Dominiak

NFL Conference Champs - AFC

I've been looking at the futures bets you can place for the conference champions in both the NFC and AFC.  For now I want to concentrate on the AFC, and the value that lies with 2 teams.  That doesn't mean that I believe these 2 teams will win the AFC championship, but I believe they have a better chance than the odds makers are giving them.  Everybody knows who the top 2 teams are in the AFC, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, but they are expensive to play in the futures market, and you're better off betting them on the money line each week instead of making a future bet with them.
First up is the San Diego Chargers.  Yes they compete directly with the Broncos in the west, but this isn't to win the division, it's to win the conference championship.  You can get the Chargers at +$2,000, which means if you bet $100 and they win the conference championship, you win $1,500 (Whereas with Denver you have to bet $250 to win $100).  That's a nice little payout for a team that improved dramatically last year.  We are in year 2 of a new head coach, who seems to be getting the best of Phillip Rivers.  The passing game will be better this year.  The defense should also be improved.
The second team is the New York Jets.  Stop laughing, I'm serious.  The Jets are at +$2,500, so nobody in Las Vegas expects them to compete for the conference title.  But they did win 8 games last year, on the play of their defense.  They added a few playmakers to the offense, giving Geno a few extra targets to play with, which should help progress his development.  Also, they added the best safety available in this years draft to that defense that won them 8 games last year, plus they should finally get something out of Milner, since he didn't show up as a rookie.  That should get them to 10 wins and a spot in the playoffs.  I think this team is built eerily similar to the Baltimore Ravens team that won the Super Bowl 2 years ago.
Again, I'm not saying that they will win, as we all know they aren't supposed to win.  I'm saying they give you the best value for return on your investment IF they do win.

But I'm just one man, and this is my opinion.

Dustin Dominiak

Football Picks update

Well since my post 2 weeks ago where I described my success so far this year in picking against the spread winners in football, I've had even more lopsided returns.  I call them lopsided because I'm dominating college football, and I suck at the NFL.  It's to the point where I'm ready to give up on NFL games, and stick to NCAAF games.  The biggest difference between the way I pick is that I use a system for NFL and I go with my gut for college.  Either I need to fix the system I'm using, or scrap it all together and go with my gut.  I'm currently negotiating with a guy I know whose success this year is the opposite of my, he's winning NFL and losing college.  Hopefully me and him can work out a deal to swap picks where I supply him with college winners and he gives me the NFL winners.  Here is a review of the past 2 weeks (I do have the Lions +6.5 pending in tonights MNF matchup against the Bears).

Lets start with college football.  In week 7 I went 4-2, which took my win percentage for college games from 64.29% to 65%.  Not a big jump by all means, but baby steps in the right direction.  Remember it takes 53% to make money, and I have a target win % of 62% for the year, so we are ahead on both fronts.  In week 8 of college football my tweeted picks went 6-1.  That glorious day took my win % from 65% to an outstanding 70.37% for the season.  My weekly records are: 3-0; 3-2; 3-3; 4-2; and 6-1 (remember I didn't start picking games in week 1, I waited until week 4).  Hopefully this streak continues as the trend show, and I don't revert to the mean like the law of averages suggests. 

Now for the NFL.  I hate the NFL right now.  After weeks 4 and 5 I stood with a 3-3 record or 50% winning percentage.  I then went 1-3 in week 6, which put me at 4-6 (40%) overall.  I followed that stink up with another 1-2 week 7, putting me at 5-8 or 38.46% on the season (as noted above I do have the Lions tonight in MNF, so I can go 2-2 on the week which would put me at 6-8 or 42.86%, but if I lose that game I will drop to 5-9 or 35.71%).  No matter how you look at it, I'm horrible in the NFL games. 

If you combine my college and NFL picks I stand at 24-16 or 60% on the season.  This is short of my 62% goal, but in the ball park.  I need to get my NFL picks turned around, as they are driving down my win percentage incredibly.  I think I can do it, but only time will tell.

Thanks for reading,
Dustin Dominiak

football picks making money

When it comes to picking football games against the spread, I like to wait until week 4 before I start to do so.  This gives me time to get a feel for the teams, and let some trends develop.  In college it also gets into conference play, which is a little more predictable than non conference games, especially with all of the cupcake’s that the big schools schedule. 

I started tweeting (@Dustin_Dominiak) my picks for both College and NFL games starting in week 4, because I wanted a source that would give evidence of my picks.  I hate when someone says that they went 5-0 or some other ridiculous record picking games over the weekend, but have no proof of those picks. Since college started a week before the NFL I have 3 weeks of picks for college and 2 for the NFL.  I’m off to a pretty good start, especially in college.  I started the year with the target win percentage of 62%, which would be 9% above the break even mark (remember with the vig you have to win 53% of your picks in order to break even).  I’m currently sitting at 60% winners, so I’m close to my target percentage, but I still have room for improvement.

I started out on fire with my college picks going 3-0 in my first week.  I followed that up with a 3-2 performance, then last week I went 3-3 leaving me with an overall record of 9-5 and a win percentage of 64.29%.  Not bad at all, right where I want it to be.  I must say though, that win percentage is being driven strictly by my first 3 picks, and if my recent trend of .500 picking continues that win percentage will be below my target mark before I know it.

The NFL I started the complete opposite of the college.  I went 1-2 in my first week, and then 2-1 last week (much better).  That leaves me at 3-3 overall or at 50% win percentage.  So far this is a money losing venture, but don’t fret, we’ll get it turned around.

So what am I talking about here?  Well if you’d been following my picks on twitter, and placing those bets yourself (remember sports gambling is only legal in 4 of the 50 states) you’d be making money right now.  Say you bet 110 to win 100 on each game (10% vig, which is why you have to win 53% to make money) you’d have won $1,200 (12 * 100) and lost $880 (110 * 8) for a net profit of $320.  So follow me on twitter, @Dustin_Dominiak, and visit Las Vegas to place your bets, if you catch me on a really hot weekend (like week 4 of college football) you’d be able to pay for your trip.

I'm just one man, and this is my opinion.

Thanks for reading,

Dustin Dominiak