Anybody looking to gamble on the NBA finals? If so, I have one piece of advice, take the home team. While both of these teams had ATS cover % below .500 for the regular season home games, they have both flipped the switch in the playoffs and protecting their court. San Antonio had a better ATS record in the regular season, but are just 9-9 in the playoffs. Miami is 10-5 so far in the playoffs, and playing like a completely different team when it comes to the spread.
I put together the below data in a spreadsheet breaking down how both teams did in various scenarios for all games played, regular season games and playoff games. I've broken down the results for total games, home, away, favorite, underdog, home favorite, away favorite, and away underdog. I know I missed home underdog, but neither of these teams were underdogs at home at any point during the season.
If we concentrate on the playoffs only (which I would recommend because 1) most recent sample size and 2) playoffs are a different game) then you want to bet on the home team for every game. The home team will/should be the favorite in each game. However, if for some reason Miami is a road favorite, I would take them.
As you see in the below image Miami is 6-2 and cover by an average of 4.7 ppg when they are home favorites in the playoffs. San Antonio is 7-3 with an avg cover of 8.9 ppg when they are home favorites.
Miami is the first team below and San Antonio is the second. I'm experiencing technical difficulties in getting the color correct, my apologies.
Miami is the first team below and San Antonio is the second. I'm experiencing technical difficulties in getting the color correct, my apologies.
