I like value plays, almost as much as I like cash flow, but value usually leads to cash flow, so it all works out. And what better place to look for value than the NFL futures market, and the conference championships.
Today we are talking about the NFC, and the value that lies with 2 teams. Again this doesn't mean that I believe these 2 teams will win the NFC championship, but I believe they have a better chance than the odds makers are giving them. Everybody knows who the top 2 teams are in the NFC, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, but they are expensive to play in the futures market at +200, and you're better off betting them on the money line each week instead of making a future bet with them.
First up is the New Orleans Saints at +$1,000 meaning a bet of $100 will win you $1,000. Lets be serious about this, Drew Brees is amazing, and is a top 3 QB in the league. This offense will continue to put up big numbers each week. They play their home games in the Super Dome, which is an unfair advantage right there, and almost guarantees 8 wins. The defense was much improved last year, and should be even better in year 2 under Ryan as defensive coordinator. Also, they added the 2nd best safety in the game to the secondary this season, that will obviously help.
My second play might be a bit more shocking, but it's the Chicago Bears also at +$1,000. Like San Diego yesterday, this is year 2 of Treastman as the head coach, and teams always do better in year 2 of a new coach. This offense is also poised to score a lot of points with great skill position players, and a very strong offensive line. Cutler has never looked better, and Jeffries will be even better this year. Also like the Saints, this defense should improve over last year. The Bears defense took a step back last year, and I don't feel they ever found their identity. That won't happen again this year. Chicago has always been built around the defense, and the city won't accept what happened last year to happen again. Look for improvement on both sides of the ball.
But I am just one man, and this is my opinion.
Dusitn Dominiak
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
NFL Conference Champs - AFC
I've been looking at the futures bets you can place for the conference champions in both the NFC and AFC. For now I want to concentrate on the AFC, and the value that lies with 2 teams. That doesn't mean that I believe these 2 teams will win the AFC championship, but I believe they have a better chance than the odds makers are giving them. Everybody knows who the top 2 teams are in the AFC, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, but they are expensive to play in the futures market, and you're better off betting them on the money line each week instead of making a future bet with them.
First up is the San Diego Chargers. Yes they compete directly with the Broncos in the west, but this isn't to win the division, it's to win the conference championship. You can get the Chargers at +$2,000, which means if you bet $100 and they win the conference championship, you win $1,500 (Whereas with Denver you have to bet $250 to win $100). That's a nice little payout for a team that improved dramatically last year. We are in year 2 of a new head coach, who seems to be getting the best of Phillip Rivers. The passing game will be better this year. The defense should also be improved.
The second team is the New York Jets. Stop laughing, I'm serious. The Jets are at +$2,500, so nobody in Las Vegas expects them to compete for the conference title. But they did win 8 games last year, on the play of their defense. They added a few playmakers to the offense, giving Geno a few extra targets to play with, which should help progress his development. Also, they added the best safety available in this years draft to that defense that won them 8 games last year, plus they should finally get something out of Milner, since he didn't show up as a rookie. That should get them to 10 wins and a spot in the playoffs. I think this team is built eerily similar to the Baltimore Ravens team that won the Super Bowl 2 years ago.
Again, I'm not saying that they will win, as we all know they aren't supposed to win. I'm saying they give you the best value for return on your investment IF they do win.
But I'm just one man, and this is my opinion.
Dustin Dominiak
First up is the San Diego Chargers. Yes they compete directly with the Broncos in the west, but this isn't to win the division, it's to win the conference championship. You can get the Chargers at +$2,000, which means if you bet $100 and they win the conference championship, you win $1,500 (Whereas with Denver you have to bet $250 to win $100). That's a nice little payout for a team that improved dramatically last year. We are in year 2 of a new head coach, who seems to be getting the best of Phillip Rivers. The passing game will be better this year. The defense should also be improved.
The second team is the New York Jets. Stop laughing, I'm serious. The Jets are at +$2,500, so nobody in Las Vegas expects them to compete for the conference title. But they did win 8 games last year, on the play of their defense. They added a few playmakers to the offense, giving Geno a few extra targets to play with, which should help progress his development. Also, they added the best safety available in this years draft to that defense that won them 8 games last year, plus they should finally get something out of Milner, since he didn't show up as a rookie. That should get them to 10 wins and a spot in the playoffs. I think this team is built eerily similar to the Baltimore Ravens team that won the Super Bowl 2 years ago.
Again, I'm not saying that they will win, as we all know they aren't supposed to win. I'm saying they give you the best value for return on your investment IF they do win.
But I'm just one man, and this is my opinion.
Dustin Dominiak
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