NFL week 4 picks best bets

As covered in the NFL recap, since the disastrous 0-4 week 1 the best bets picks posted have been doing well, getting us back to 9-8 on the season, YAY!!  We laid a dud on Thursday night football, and I even spoke to a buddy about how Cousins performed too well against the Eagles last week and a lot of pressure would be on him to play that way ever week.  Cousins got down, then he pressed and forced passes and threw interceptions.  Even though all 5 systems agreed on Washington, I had a hard time pulling the trigger, regretfully I did anyways, and now the record is at 9-9.  That was short lived.
Here are the rest of the games for this weekend that stand out.

Chicago +1.5 vs Green Bay
As we learned last week, wait for the line to move before grabbing the points.  Green Bay is a public team, and will get a lot of money from the public to back them.  That will move the line and then we get even better value with the Bears.  Four of the five systems used all agree that the value in this game is with Chicago, and actually all but 1 of those 4 think they should be favored (that is due to the Bears being at home and being adjusted for home field, on a neutral field Green Bay would be favored slightly), and 1 thinks they should be 0.5 point underdog.  This will probably move to +2 or maybe even +2.5 and that's when we strike, but realistically any points here with the home team is a good play.

Philadelphia +5 @ San Francisco
The Eagles are playing well despite slow starts to all 3 games so far this season needing to come from behind to win in all 3.  San Francisco is a disaster in disguise, needed 2 defensive touchdowns against the Cowboys to get their only win this season.  The 49ers have been turnover prone, and throwing the ball to much.  They dominated last year utilizing the run.  Hopefully the late afternoon start means the Eagles offense shows up for 4 quarters, and if it does the 49ers could be in a lot of trouble, and Jim Harbaugh will be thinking about taking over for Brady Hoke at Michigan next year.  Eagles pull the upset!

Dallas +3 vs New Orleans
Just like Chicago we are going to be patient and let this line move a little bit hoping to get more value with this play.  4 of the 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Cowboys for this game, and that they should only be a 1 point underdog at the most.  The Cowboys only loss this year was to San Francisco, as discussed above.  Sure the defense hasn't been stellar, but they have been better than what people think.  New Orleans finally got a win last week, but that was against Minnesota without AP and at home.  New Orleans is 0-2 on the road this year, and both games have been settled by a field goal or less.  Until NO starts to win big on the road, we aren't laying any chalk with them, as the allegedly improved defense continues to give up plays and points.  Be patient and let the line move, as I'm sure 75% of the public will be on the Saints.

NY Jets +2 vs Detroit
This has an opportunity to get to +3, and so take a patient approach and see if you get a better line.  This is another game where the public is all over the Lions and while occasionally the public get's it right, the majority of the time they are wrong.  Detroit is coming off a big win against Green Bay, but it was because of the defense that they won the game and nothing to do with the offense.  The Jets defense is way better than the Packers, and the Lion have to go on the road to play this game, so I expect them to struggle slightly.  Plus think about it this way, each week there are a few games that you look and are like, whoa I can get __________ -2, I'm in.  It looks to good to be true to be backing the Lions this week.  Add in the fact that all 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Jets, and that the 2 most accurate of the 5 so far this season call for them to be favorites, and I'm backing the J-E-T-S, Jets!, Jets!, Jets!

Take those 4, add in Thursday night and you get 5 games for the week.  Two other games that the systems liked that I couldn't pull the trigger on were Carolina +3.5 (Baltimore has great run defense, Carolina has struggled to run) and Miami -3.5 (who knows what Miami team will show up in London).  We know we're starting 0-1 this week do to the flop of Thursday, but we will be ending 4-1.  Good luck this weekend, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

College football week 5 picks part 2

Well a garbage touchdown with 5 minutes left in the game kept us from starting the week on a good foot.  It has been a tricky year so far on Thursday night.  Here are the rest of this weeks picks.

Virginia -27.5 vs Kent State
Virginia has proven week in and week out that it can play with the big boys this year.  After a close loss to UCLA and back to back wins, including an upset of Louisville, Virginia ran out of luck at BYU last week, but even that should've been a win as they led at halftime and out gained BYU.  Kent State is not good this year with losses to Ohio, Southern Alabama and a blow out loss in week 3 on the road at Ohio State.

Temple -6 @ UConn
The lack of ability to move the ball on offense was on full display last week for UConn against USF, but that is a trend not an outlier.  Last year Temple blew a 21 point lead to lose 28-21, but this UConn offense doesn't have any capability like last year.  Temple goes on the road and takes care of business.

Rutgers -11.5 vs Tulane
Tulane is not good, and Rutgers has made believers out of us.  The only game that Tulane was really competitive in this year was against SE Louisiana, which they won.  This is the 2nd of back to back road games for the green wave.  Rutgers returns home after an upset win over Navy on the road last week.  While you could worry that Rutgers could get caught looking ahead to Michigan next week, I don't think that will be a problem as the Scarlet Knights should take advantage of a porous run defense of Tulane.

Kentucky -17 vs Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is a team to bet against each week, and with this being the first road game of the season I see no reason to lay heavy chalk against them this week.  Kentucky is much improved, and can score in bunches.  Vanderbilt is coming off a tough home loss against South Carolina, which was the toughest team they have played this year.  With 31 freshmen playing for Vanderbilt this year, and it being there first game on the road, we continue to fade Vandy.

Notre Dame -9 neutral field vs Syracuse
The Syracuse offense relies heavy on the run, but Notre Dames strength on defense is stopping the run.  The ND offense looks completely different this year with the return of Golson, who has 11 total touchdowns and 0 turnovers.  Last week Syracuse suffered a horrible loss at home to Maryland, even though the had a 220 total yard advantage, it was 2 extra turnovers that did them in.  Notre Dame travels extremely well, especially to the east coast, and are on a current 10-1 mark on regular season neutral site games.  Notre Dame is also winning it's games by a 26 ppg average, although it was against inferior opponents who have a combined 4-7 record.  In the end though, the Irish ability to stop the run will determine this outcome, and I don't expect the offense to falter.

Arkansas +9 neutral field Texas A&M
Normally we are backers of the Texas A&M team and the unstoppable offense.  However, this week we need to go with the other unstoppable offense in Arkansas run game.  This will be the best offense that Texas A&M has faced all season, and they did allow 240 rushing yards to Rice.  In the end look for this one to come down to the wire, as we see which offense can outlast the other.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M over 71 points
Speaking of Arkansas and Texas A&M, while locking in the Arkansas plus the points, take the over in this game too.  As we just discussed, these teams have dominating offenses, and I don't expect there to be lack of scoring in this game.  The points total is high, but a score of 42-35 is a cover, and totally capable of happening as last year the score was 45-33.

Washington +8 vs Stanford
Last week Washington got caught in the first half looking ahead to Stanford and trailed Georgia State at home 14-0 at halftime.  The 2nd half was a different story as the Huskies took over and scored 45 straight unanswered to win 45-14.  This is the first road game for Stanford, and while they haven't had any problems winning at home against non-conference foes, when they battled USC, it was a different story.  They do come in with the number 1 defense in the country in yards allowed and points scored, but Washington isn't lacking for offense either.  Look for Washington to keep it close to the end.

Georgia -17 vs Tennessee
I imagine this game will play out similar to the Tennessee @ Oklahoma game.  That was the first road game for this young Tennessee team, and they played tough, but it wasn't close.  This is the first road conference game for this young team, and while they'll benefit from having a bye last week, I don't expect it will sway the outcome of this game.  Georgia bounced back well from the upset loss @ South Carolina 2 weeks ago with a 66-0 win over Troy.  The run game for Georgia is dominating, and allows Mason to get more comfortable in the pocket.  In the end though, the home crowd will be to much for the young Tennessee team, and Georgia runs away with it.

Duke +7 at Miami (FL)
Duke is playing solid football, and have a bye on deck, so they will be coming out guns blazing in the game.  Miami has played well at home, but against inferior opponents, while facing stiffer competition on the road hasn't gone so well for this team.  Duke is still trying to earn respect and will use this game as a spring board to get that respect.  Look for this one to stay closer than the experts think.

Louisiana-Monroe -14 vs Troy
Troy is in the second game of back to back that saw them get destroyed against Georgia 66-0.  ULM is coming off a bye and is fully fresh.  Troy enters with the #122 ranked rush defense and the #120 pass efficiency defense.  ULM has won the last 3 games between these 2 teams at home, and nothing I've seen leads me to believe that it will be different, as Troy defense is very similar to Idaho, and ULM put 38 up on Idaho.  Troy is also banged up after the Georgia game, and I expect eager to get to their bye next week.

Nebraska -21 vs Illinois
Here is what you need to know.  Illinois has the 90th ranked rush defense allowing 172 yards per game.  Nebraska running back Abdullah has already rushed for 200+ yards twice the season, and this will be the 3rd time.  Playing at home, Illinois barely beat Youngstown state, Western Kentucky and were losing last week 21-6 to Texas state before rallying for a 42-35 win.  The one road game this year they played was a 44-19 blow out loss to Washington.  While some might be worried that Nebraska could get caught looking ahead to Michigan State next week, I believe the wake up call that McNeese State gave them in week 2 will keep them grounded and focused on the game at hand.  Look for Abdullah to lead the way in another blowout win.

That enough games for you to choose from?  Good luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL Thursday Night Football NY Giants at Washington Redskins

It was another good week in week 3, with the 8 teams that matched on 4 of our 5 systems or better going 5-3 ATS.  The one team that matched in all 5 systems actually was one of the losses.  Also, depending on when you took the Browns and the points did it depend on your outcome of a loss, push or win, as all 3 were possibilities.  Out of the 8 teams, 7 were suggested with the Saints being left off because of uncertainties with team personnel, turns out the Vikings were without Peterson so this was a better play that initially thought.  So the 7 gave us a record of 4-3, bringing our season total to 8-9, and still improving on that initial 0-4 start to the season.

But all of that is in the past, and now it's time to talk about the future.  The future starts tonight with the NY Giants at Washington Redskins with the Redskins currently a -3.5 point favorite.  All 5 of the systems used match on Redskins getting value at -3.5, as they indicate that it should be somewhere between -4 and -5.5, which would agree with the line opening of -5.  In looking at the season stats through 3 weeks we see that this game will be decided on the ground.  Both teams are averaging around 30 carries per game, and while they are both also averaging over 100 yards per game (NY Giants 109, Redskins 135), the Giants average has greatly benefited from last week against Houston when they rushed for 192 yards.  The Redskins defense is only allowing 65 rushing yards per game, while the Giants are allowing 106.  This indicates that the Redskins would have an easier time to get to their season average than the Giants, allowing them to control the ball and the tempo of the game.  The run will also set up the pass, and give Cousins (second start this year) a better opportunity to succeed.
Also this year the Redskins are averaging 71 plays per game, which is quite high.  The Giants are averaging 64 plays a game.  Surely the Redskins average is given a boost from last weeks shoot out with the Eagles, but a 7 play difference is a touchdown drive.  Look for the Redskins to control the possession of time, and get the easy win.  Just to be on the safe side, pay the extra juice and buy the hook.
Washington Redskins -3

Good luck tonight, and check back tomorrow for the rest of the weekends action.  Oh and be kind, follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak.

college football week 5 game picks part 1

Last week was not a good week, as I covered in the week 4 recap.  However, this is a new week, we're all picked back up, shoulders are dusted off and we're ready to go.  Starting out this week is one game on Thursday night.  Look for another post on Friday for the weekend action.

Oklahoma State -14 vs Texas Tech
Texas Tech can't stop the run on defense, and Arkansas exploited that 2 weeks ago, before TT had the bye last week.  After the Arkansas game the TT defensive coordinator resigned.  Oklahoma State is running the ball on an average of 43 times per game, and with the porous rush D of TT, look for them to put up some big rushing stats.  In recent against the spread results TT is 0-4 last 4 on the road, 0-5 last 5 conference games and 1-8 in their last 9 overall.  OKSU is 12-3 in last 15 at home and 6-1 in last 7 conference games.  In the series TT is 0-4 in last 4 at OKSU, TT is 0-5 in last 5 meetings overall, and the favorite is 5-1 in last 6 meetings.  All signs point to all trends continuing this year.

Good luck Thursday night, and check back Friday for the weekend games.  Oh and follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominak

college football week 4 best bets recap

Well we didn’t want to get juiced in week 4, and that we certainly didn’t posting a losing record of 4-8-1, just a dreadful week.  In looking at what happened, it was a bunch of bad bounces, and the tale of 2 halves in some games that kept us from a winning week.  It could’ve just as easily been an 8-4-1 or 7-5-1 week, but that wasn’t the case and we’re holding losing tickets.  Let’s have a recap

Virginia Tech -8 vs Georgia Tech

This one looked good at half time and then again at the end of the third quarter with VT leading 16-10 and only needing a fg to cover.  Well in the 4^th quarter they collapse and get outscored 17-8, costing us the game and themselves the win.  Looks like VT is to young this year.

Pittsburgh -7 vs Iowa

Another game looking good heading into the half with a 17-7 lead.  Pitt was dominating the game, and controlling the line.  They looked like they were on there way.  Then in the second half Iowa just stopped letting Pitt run the ball, and Iowa outscored Pitt in the second half 17-3, again costing us the cover and Pitt the win

Duke -17 vs Tulane

This game went our way, and after 2 second half collapses to start the day, we thought this was the game to send us on our way to a winning week.  Duke offense continues to roll along, and Tulane struggled again on the road.  Duke with the huge win.

North Carolina +3 at East Carolina

This was a disaster from the word go.  Sure UNC was only down a point at the end of the 1^st quarter, but after that it was all ECU football.  UNC couldn’t get a stop to save there lives.

Texas A&M -33.5 at SMU

This game was over at half time.  Texas A&M looked like a team trying to make a point, and they did winning big on the road.

Navy -6.5 vs Rutgers

We thought Rutgers would be let down after loss at home to Penn State, but they weren’t, they were pissed off.  Navy was caught with it’s pants down.

Missouri -13.5 vs Indiana

Missouri defense finally found an offense it couldn’t stop, and Indiana was able to put forth best defensive effort all year and limited the Missouri offense.  Football is a weird game.

Washington -34.5 vs Georgia State

We have Georgia State as a team to bet against each week.  This should’ve been an easy cover, but Washington was asleep at the wheel in the first half, and was actually trailing by 14 at halftime.  They scored 45 in the second half and won by 31 points, but we needed that 4^th score in the 4^th quarter to be a touchdown and not a field goal to get the cover.  Unbelievable.

Arkansas -13.5 vs Northern Illinois

We thought the hogs would be to much up front for NIU and they were.  They started strong scoring 21 in the 1^st and ended strong score 17 in the 4^th.

LSU-9.5 vs Mississippi State

This was the first loss at home at night for LSU since Les Miles became the head coach.  We didn’t see it coming, but we didn’t see a lot of shit coming at us on Saturday.

South Carolina -21 at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is the other school we have to bet against each week, and they cover this wee against South Carolina.  I didn’t think Vandy was capable of scoring more than 17 on USC, but they put up twice that.

New Mexico -3 at New Mexico State

We took the push on the game, and was lucky to get it.  After leading 21-14 at halftime, New Mexico was outscored 14-3 in the 3^rd and needed 2 touchdowns in the 4^th to get us the push, if this was a loss this week would’ve been worse

Boise State -17 vs Louisiana Lafayette

BSU dominates at home on the blue turf and they didn’t let us down.  BSU ran all over Louisiana, closing the night out with a win.

college football week 4 best bets

After having back to back .500 weeks, we decided to keep it to an odd number of games this week to avoid that happening again.  We really hate getting juiced, it’s all about winning and losing.  Anyways, here are our 13 best bets for week 4 of college football.

Virginia Tech -8 vs Georgia Tech

Last week we recommended VT at home vs East Carolina, thinking that they’d be flying high at home with a loud crowd backing them after the upset at Ohio State.  Well we were wrong.  This week is a revenge/statement week.  Last week was a wake up call for VT.  VT had trouble getting anything going on offense until the 4Q.  Georgia Tech is coming off a near disaster of its own at home against Georgia Southern, needing a last second touchdown to get the win after blowing an early 35-10 lead.  VT are 6-1 in this series, and I have no reason to go against that, VT wins big.

Pittsburgh -7 home vs Iowa

Pittsburgh was another recommendation last week that came up short.  They got off to a slow start putting themselves in an early 16-0 deficit before mounting the come back and winning 45-25, missing the cover by a touchdown.  This is Iowa’s first road game of the season, while Pittsburgh is returning home after back to back road games.  Pittsburgh has been dominate in the run game this year and have a 1,033 to 232 rush yard advantage through 3 games.  Iowa hasn’t allowed many rushing yards this year limiting opponents to just 66 rushing yards a game, but I think the Pittsburgh offensive line changes that this week and they run all over Iowa. 

Duke -17 vs Tulane

Last week we were backers of Duke, and we told you of all there wonderful stats ATS, well they covered big, and improved on those stats, so we’re not going to cover those again here.  Tulane won for the first time last week at home against Southeast Louisiana in a pick em game by Vegas.  Tulane played on the road in week 1, and lost by 7 to Tulsa as a 4.5 point dog.  Duke is just to dominate on offense, including a break out performance last week by Wilson who ran for a school record of 245 yards.  Duke keeps it home streak going with another big win.

North Carolina +3 at East Carolina

Last week East Carolina went into Blacksburg and pulled off the upset in a trap game for Virginia Tech.  Like VT last week, this is a trap game for ECU, coming home after a big road upset, and they get to face North Carolina, oh and be favored in the game.  NCU is 6-2 in this series, and I fully expect that trend to continue this year, the fact that you’re getting points is icing on the cake, and a bit of a security blanket.  NCU is also coming off a buy, and the 2 campuses are only 110 miles apart, so I feel that NCU will have plenty of support in the stands. 

Texas A&M -33.5 at SMU

Last week we were supporters of Texas A&M and due to a lackluster start we were 1 score away from covering.  This week they go up against a worse team in SMU, whose HC recently resigned.  In this series TA&M is 4-0 with an average of 51-10.  So far this year SMU lost by 45 to Baylor and 37 points to North Texas.  Granted both of those games were on the road, but this is a very good TA&M team, and will want to make a statement after a not so great performance at home.  After the game last week, Sumlin said, “Guys weren’t very happy with how they played tonight.  In the locker room our guys were ho hum and pretty hard on themselves…..and that’s good.”  That’s how his players felt after a 25 point win.  Look for them to roll on the road.

Navy -6.5 vs Rutgers

Rutgers is coming off a depressing loss at home against Penn State, there new ‘rival’ in the Big Ten.  Rutgers was winning late, but came up short as Penn State went home with the win.  Navy is returning home after back to back road wins where they dominated the line of scrimmage.  Rutgers offense has been stagnate all year, and the defense gave up 269 rushing yards to Howard.  Howard!  And that was at home.  In this series the home team is 5-2 ATS, and we have no reason to go against that trend this year.  Navy runs over Rutgers.

Missouri -13.5 vs Indiana

Last week we were backers of Indiana.  We were under the impression that Indiana State was much improved from last season and that is why the game with them was so close.  It appears we might have been wrong.  Last week Indiana couldn’t stop BGSU, and when they were driving with a chance to put the game away and go up 10 they fumbled on the 12.  BGSU went on to score a touchdown on the next drive and Indiana was never able to regain the momentum.  Missouri on the other hand keeps exceeding everyones expectations each week.  Last year Missouri went into Indiana and won 45-28.  On top of that Indiana is 1-6 in last 7 road games, and are only 2-6-1 in last 9 overall.  Meanwhile Missouri is 4-1 in last 5 home games and 6-1-1 in last 8 non-conference.  Look for Missouri to keep exceeding expectations this week.

Washington -34.5 vs Georgia State

In our recap of week 3 we talked about finding teams that you can go against each week is just as valuable as finding teams you can back week to week.  Georgia State is a team that you should go against each week.  We had Georgia State in our final round of picks to bet against last week, but we couldn’t convince ourselves to back Air Force on the road by double digits.  We were right with that pick, but this is a week to go against Georgia State.  It’s the first road game of the year for them, and they have proven that they can’t stop anybody on defense at home, so we don’t believe they will drastically be able to stop someone on the road for the first time all season.  Washington shook off 2 bad games to start the season to blow out Illinois last week at home.  Washington starting QB was suspended for week 1 vs Hawaii, but since his return they have averaged 52 points per game and 500 yards per game, the offense continues to roll this week and the Huskies win BIG!

LSU -9.5 vs Mississippi State

LSU is 13-3 in last 16 and the favorite is 4-0 in last 4.  LSU posted back to back shutouts the past 2 weeks, and the defense hasn’t allowed a point for 31 straight possessions.  Mississippi State’s defense is allowing almost 400 yards of offense per game this year, and have yet to face a defense as good as LSU.  Les Miles teams at home at night are nearly unstoppable, and we don’t expect anything different in this game.

Arkansas -13.5 vs Northern Illinois

Last week Arkansas went on the road to Texas Tech and pulled out a huge 21 point victory, and has the best backfield in the SEC.  Arkansas HC is 3-0 against Northern Illinois during his time at Wisconsin, and this Arkansas team is built similar to those Wisconsin teams.  Arkansas will over power Northern Illinois in this game and control the line of scrimmage on both sides.  Arkansas runs all over them

South Carolina -21.5 at Vanderbilt

Remember earlier when we talked about the week 2 recap and finding teams to go against, well Vanderbilt is the other team we have selected to go against, but didn’t have faith in UMass last week.  We were wrong in that instance, and are regretting it.  Vanderbilt has proven that it is horrible.  The lines were incorrect in all 3 games they’ve played this week.  Even with an over adjusted line this isn’t enough points for Vanderbilt at home.  Go against Vanderbilt this week and every week for the rest of the season.

New Mexico -3.5 at New Mexico State

The visitor has won 4 of the last 6 in this meeting.  Last year New Mexico won 66-17.  New Mexico is coming off a bye, while NMSU is coming home after back to back road games.  New Mexico is 6-3-1 in last 10 in this series and 3-0-1 in last 4 on the road.  These 2 teams are competing for the worst rushing defense in FBS, but New Mexico can actually run the ball, averaging 300 yards per game.  They will use that to there advantage and run away with the victory and the cover.

Boise State -17 Louisiana-Lafayette

Louisiana is 2-6 in last 8 road games and 2-7 overall ATS.  This is also the second of back to back road trips for Louisiana after getting destroyed my Mississippi last week.  This is a much harder road trip with the long distance out west and playing in the elevation.  Boise State have won 28 straight non-conference home games.  Louisiana is allowing 544 yards per game against FBS opponents this year.  Look for Boise State to keep that home streak going, and to take advantage of the worst defense in college. 

Good luck this week and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 3 best bets

Last week our picks went 4-2 ATS, giving us a 4-6 mark on the season, as we are still digging out of that week 1 0-4 bomb.

Before I get into our week 3 picks I want to provide a little explanation on what we’re looking for.  We manage 5 different systems, 2 based on power ratings, and 3 based on score sheets.  Last week we had 2 systems go 8-8 ATS, 2 go 9-7 ATS and the 5^th went 10-6 ATS.  That last one was extra special because it was a score sheet based on what we expected each team to do with running/passing and turnovers/missed field goals.  We were pleasantly surprised at how simple it is to make the correct assumptions once you have a formidable backlog of stats to help make those decisions.  Anyways, last week we had 5 games where all 5 of our system agreed on who would cover the spread, and those 5 games went 4-1 ATS.  We had 3 more games where 4 of our 5 systems agreed, and those 3 games went 2-1 ATS, so of the 8 games that at least 4 of our 5 systems agreed on the ATS record was 6-2, which would be a phenomenal day. 

For week 3 we have 1 game in which all 5 of our systems agree, and 7 games in which 4 of our 5 systems agree.  Below are our picks based on those systems results.

Atlanta -6.5 vs Tampa Bay

Atlanta struggled on the road last week at Cincinnati, but that was a game outdoors, and against a better defense than New Orleans.  Tampa Bay has a better defense than Atlanta’s, but they are racking up the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, and are going on the road for the first time this year after losing 2 games at home.  Atlanta returning home, coming off a loss and laying less than a touchdown against an inferior opponent is the type of play we’re looking for.  4 of our 5 systems agree on this game with the lone outlier being the 13/14 score sheet, which is weighted down by the poor performances Atlanta put forth last year.

Green Bay +1.5 @ Detroit

In one power rating we have GB as a -7.5 favorite, in the other they are a -1.5 favorite.  The game expectations score sheet (went 10-6 last week) has them as a -7 point favorite.  Finally the 13/14 average score sheet has Green Bay as a pick em, with a line variance of 2.  This score sheet has had a line variance of 2 shows up 10 times since the start of the 2013 season, and has a record of 8-2 ATS, and cover the spread by an average of 6 points per.  Green Bay wins on the road.

Denver +5 @ Seattle

Nevermind the super bowl rematch, and that Denver wants revenge or that Seattle is out to prove the SB wasn’t a fluke.  Just don’t think about that stuff.  One of our power ratings has Denver as +6, which is the one system that doesn’t agree with the other 4.  The other power rating has Denver as +3, which is due to Seattle having home field.  That rating system actually has these 2 teams as a pick em right now on a neutral field.  Our 13/14 score sheet has Denver as a -1 point favorite, with a line variance of 6, which in the 6 occurrences since 2013 is 5-1 with an average cover mark of 3 points per.  The 14 and GE score sheets both have this game graded as pick em.

Carolina -3.5 vs Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is a public team, so you should be able to get better value with Carolina as the week goes on, but if you want to get them -3 and buy the hook now, I think that is a smart play.  One of the power ratings systems has Carolina as -8.5 point favorite, while the other has them as -4.5 point favorite.  The 13/14 score sheet has Carolina as a -5 favorite and a line variance of 1, which is 12-6 in it’s last 18 and average cover of 3 points per. 

San Diego 2.5 @ Buffalo

San Diego should be favored in this game, plain and simple.  Perhaps the early start on the east coast for a west coast team is in play here, but that didn’t affect Arizona last week, and I don’t expect it to hurt SD this week.  The 2 power ratings systems have the Chargers as -2.5 and -1.5 point favorites.  The GE score sheet has them as a -5 point favorite

Cleveland 1.5 vs Baltimore

The 1 outlier in all of my systems is a power rating that says the Browns should be +2 instead of +1.5.  That’s it, 1 outlier over a half a point.  Cleveland is good, better than most expected.  Baltimore shook the drama of Ray Rice off for a 3 hour period to beat Pittsburgh, and have the extra rest, but they must go to the hostile environment that is Cleveland, which is never an easy thing to do, but they are no longer escaping from anything, nor are they facing a team that is going to throw the ball 40+ times a game.  Cleveland will pound the ball on the ground, and that will cause the Ravens problems.  Browns get back to back home wins

Arizona +3 vs San Francisco

Similar to the Cleveland game, I have 1 outlier in my 5 systems, and it calls for Arizona to be +3.5, so only a 0.5 point difference.  The other 4 systems have Arizona rated as a favorite.  They did play well on the east coast in an early game with a backup QB none the less.  San Francisco has a better offense and defense than the Giants do, but I don’t believe the offense is as good as San Diego, which Arizona was able to hold to 18 points.  The defense leads the way again.

Wait, that’s only 7 games selected, and we had 8 that met all 4 systems or better.  So which team are we leaving off?  Why New Orleans of course.  While it’s tempting to lay 9 points on the Saints at home against Minnesota that just got destroyed at home, that would be a trap.  Peterson is playing this week, and I don’t think the New Orleans defense will get 4 picks.  New Orleans is good at home, but they just aren’t playing like a championship team yet, and are stuck in shoot outs.  You don’t cover a 9 point spread in a shoot out, so we’ll sit this game out.

Thanks for checking in this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 2 best bets recap

Week 2 was much better than week 1.  The proper adjustments were made, and we marched to a 4-2 record on the week.  That brings our total NFL record to 4-6 through the first 2 weeks.  Here is a breakdown on what went right/wrong this week.

Pittsburgh +3 @ Baltimore

This was a bit of a disaster, and not the way I was hoping to start the week.  Baltimore looked like it was relieved to finally play and avoid the off field distractions that was the Ray Rice circus.  They focused that energy and executed.  They also ran the ball well, and didn’t make Flacco throw 40+ times.  Pittsburgh never got it going on offense.

Detroit +3 @ Carolina

What happens when you have 2 missed field goals, 2 fumbles and an interception?  You lose the game and don’t cover the spread.  That is exactly what happened here.  You have to protect the ball to win games, and the Lions just failed to do that.

Cincinnati -5 vs Atlanta

Cincy ran all over Atlanta.  It did cost them AJ Green.  As expected the New Orleans defense was overrated to start the year, and made the ATL offense look great instead of good. 

Houston -3 @ Oakland

This game was over at kickoff.  Houston defense showed up and shut down Oakland offense.  Take away the garbage time touchdown at the end of the game, and this was a clear blow out. 

St. Louis +5.5 @ Tampa Bay

I hated this game the whole time I had it played, but it worked out in the end.  The Rams defense finally looked like it should, and did benefit from Tampa trying to run the ball.  The offense stuck to the run, and was able to control the game, and they made just enough plays to come out with the victory.

Philadelphia +3 @ Indianapolis

Philly did it again, falling behind by 14 points going into half time only to come back and steal a win from Indy.  I couldn’t figure out why Philly wasn’t favored in this game, it must’ve been a pick em game and home field moved the needle to Indy.  Anyways the offense came through for Philly and Sproles/McCoy 2 headed backfield monster is going to be fun to watch all season.

That was week 2, come back in a couple of days for week 3 picks.  Again, week 2 was educational, and adjustments have been made.  Looking for an even better week in week 3.  As always, follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

college football week 3 best bets recap

Ugh, what a frustrating Saturday.  Our released picks ended up going 6-6 on Saturday, which put us at 7-7 for week 3.  That is back to back weeks of .500 selections, and that isn’t good enough.  I hate getting juiced, I’d rather lose, well not really but I really hate getting juiced on the day.

Along with finding a few teams that we believe are undervalued and riding through the season, we also like to look for teams that are over rated and play against them each week.  The 2 teams that we targeted for that this year was Georgia State and Vanderbilt.  This week we didn’t feel confident in Air Force laying double digits or UMass traveling to Nashville.  But we should have stuck to our manifesto as both Air Force and UMass went on the road and covered.  That was frustrating to watch.

In week 2 we had Maryland laying the points on the road at South Florida.  USF played them hard and had a decent running game, so thinking a below average NC State team coming to town this past weekend was a great opportunity to ride this Bull.  However, we were initially concerned about USF as they forced 6 Maryland turnovers, and still couldn’t get the win.  In the end, we didn’t put enough weight on that factor and backed the Bulls this week anyways.  It was the wrong decision.  Maryland isn’t that good, and USF is even worse.  We’ve decided to add USF to the list of Georgia State and Vanderbilt of schools to go against each week.

Indiana had so many chances to put away an inferior Bowling Green team, but they couldn’t.  Every time they got close they would suffer a self-inflicted wound and it cost them in the end as they weren’t able to overcome all of their mistakes. 

Pittsburgh got off to such a slow start that I swear I saw the training staff checking pulses on the sidelines to make sure the team was still alive.  They overcame the sluggish start to win by 17 but that wasn’t enough to get us to where we wanted to go.

Central Michigan looked nothing like the team that went into Purdue and pulled off the road upset last week.  This looked like the normal CMU team that we see each year.  This was a classic let down game.  Big road win, then going home versus a lesser opponent.  This was a trap and we should’ve laid off this game. 

Speaking of letdown games, Virginia Tech let East Carolina own them the whole game.  The offense couldn’t get anything going.  It looked to me like ECU was sitting in a zone defense, and didn’t let VT playmakers get past them.  This was another trap game, coming off the big upset victory of Ohio State the week before on the road.  We thought that there was no way Frank Beamer would ever let one of his teams get caught with their pants down after he just caught a team with its pants down.  We were wrong.

Late night Texas A&M looked solid, but we just laid to many points with them.  Don’t get us wrong, we still believe it was the right play, and they were close to covering a few times, but we unable to get that final touchdown that was needed.  A slow start, and a stalled drive at the end cost us this game. 

Georgia Southern and Virginia played tough, just like we thought they would.  Georgia Southern’s head coach must be one hell of a half time speaker, cause his boys came out a different team in the second half.  Meanwhile, Virginia won in a heavy weight battle home against Louisville.  They pulled off the upset, and continue to look like a solid team this year.  Remember Virginia going forward each week.

Duke, Ole Miss and Oklahoma all performed as expected.  Duke exceeded our expectations, and Ole Miss looks like a team to be reckoned with come SEC conference play.  We thought Oklahoma would run the score up on Tennessee, and they tried but couldn’t get it past 24. 

Finally we almost had the over in the Arkansas/Texas Tech game at halftime.  Half way through the 3^rd we were able to mark this one a win, as both teams couldn’t play defense.

So it was a frustrating week, but again another educational one.  Remember it’s not always about finding the hot teams and riding them, sometimes you need to find the bad teams and go against them, even when you’re concerned about their opponents.  Well that’s week 3 in the books, again we finished the week 7-7, bringing our season record to 21-18 or 53.8%, which means that we can’t keep having .500 weeks.  Another .500 week and we aren’t winning money anymore.  Turn in next week for our week 4 picks, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

college football week 3 best bets part 2

Welcome to part 2 of college football week 3 best bets.  Last night wasn't a good start to the weekend, with North Texas acting like they weren't interested in playing for the first 2 1/2 quarters.  We have 12 more games that are solid plays for Saturday.

Indiana -7.5 @ Bowling Green

Indiana’s offense is legit, and can put up big numbers in a hurry.  BGSU has struggled on the defensive side of the ball this year, allowing 569 yds passing to Western Kentucky and 321 to VMI.  Last year Indiana won 42-10 at home, and covered the -2.5 point spread easily.  Last week BGSU lost it’s starting qb for the year with a hip injury.  Look for Indiana to get another big win

South Florida +1.5 vs North Carolina St

South Florida is coming off a home loss to Maryland, where there defense forced 6 turnovers.  NC State barely beat Georgia Southern at home in week 1, and last week trailed Old Dominion at home 21-10 before coming back to win.  Against the spread NC State is 0-7 in last 7, 2-9-1 in last 12 on road, 1-4 last 5 versus non-conference and 2-13 in last 15 as road favorites. 

Virginia Tech -10 vs East Carolina

VT is coming off a huge road upset of Ohio State, while East Carolina is coming off a hard fought loss at South Carolina.  These 2 teams are familiar with each other as they’ve played every year for the past 4 years.  In the past 5 meetings the home team is 4-1 against the spread.  Virginia Tech defense is playing aggressive and was able to force 3 turnovers last week.  The home crowd will be pumped up for this game, and Virginia Tech rides that energy to another big victory.

Central Michigan +6.5 vs Syracuse

Syracuse struggled in it’s season opener at home against Villanova, a game that went into 2 overtimes.  Central Michigan is coming off a big road upset of Purdue on the road.  Syracuse is 2-12 in last 14 in road openers.  Syracuse defense allowed 190 yds rushing to Villanova and the CMU run game is averaging 155 yds rushing per game.  Look for CMU to run over Syracuse this weekend and pull off the upset.

Pittsburgh -25.5 @ Florida International

Pittsburgh is coming off a big road victor at Boston College, while FIU is coming off back to back FCS opponents, one of which they lost.  FIU is 0-4 in last 4 versus the ACC and 2-5 in last 7 non-conference games.  Pitt is 4-0 in last 4 road games, 4-1 last 5 overall and 9-4 last 13 non-conference games. 

Georgia Southern +17 @ Georgia Tech

This is a much bigger game for Georgia Southern than it is for Georgia Tech.  Georgia Southern almost pulled off the upset at NC State in week 1, and then won big against an FCS opponent last week.  This game opened at Georgia Tech -20, so we left some points there, but it won’t matter.  Georgia Southern is 6-0 in last 6 non-conference games, 5-0 last 5 road games and 6-0 last 6 overall.  Meanwhile Georgia Tech is just 3-8-1 in last 12 overall and 1-4 last 5 at home.  I’ll take the points in this one.

Virginia +6.5 vs Louisville

This is Louisville first road game of the year.  Virginia is playing very good at home.  They opened the season versus ranked UCLA and nearly pulled off the upset with the defense completely shutting down the UCLA offense.  UCLA had 3 defensive touchdowns in that game, and those were the difference maker.  Virginia is 4-0 in last 4 overall and 3-1-1 at home in last 5.  Look for Virginia to keep it close

Duke -14 vs Kansas

Duke is on a roll since the start of last season, and are coming off a big 17 point victory on the road last week.  Kanas squeaked out a win versus Southeast Missouri State.  Kansas is 3-14 in road openers, 0-7-1 in last 8 non-conference, 1-4 last 5 overall and 7-18-1 last 26 on the road.  Duke is 3-0-1 in last 4 at home and 8-2-1 in last 11 overall. 

Arkansas at Texas Tech over 64 points

2 high flying offenses here, and not much defense.  The over for Arkansas is 8-2-1 in last 11 overall and 16-4-1 in last 21 road games.  The over in Texas Tech games is 4-1 last 5 at home and 14-5 in last 19 overall.  Arkansas games are averaging 73 points so far this year while Texas Tech games are averaging 66.

Mississippi -27.5 vs Louisiana

Louisiana is coming off a devastating upset at home against Louisiana Tech last week.  Mississippi is playing at home for the first time this year after opening on a neutral site and then playing on the road at Vanderbilt last week.  Mississippi is scoring points at will since the 4^th quarter of the 1^st game.  Ole Miss is 20-6 in last 26 non-conference, 5-2 last 7 at home and 7-3 last 10 overall.  Louisiana is 2-5 last 7 on the road and 2-6 last 8 overall.  Mississippi wins big in front of a rowdy home crowd.

Oklahoma -21 vs Tennessee

Last week we were backing Tennessee thinking the young team would continue to feed off the home crowd, and if it weren’t for 2 missed field goals we would’ve got the cover.  This is the first road game for a team that plays 20 freshman, and that game is in Norman against a #4 ranked team in the nation.  Oh and that team has won it’s first 2 games by an average of 38 points.  Also, don’t underscore the fact that Bob Stoops hates the SEC and every school in it.  If he gets a chance to run up the score against one, I believe he will.

Texas A&M -31.5 vs Rice

Kenny Hill is lighting up the college football scene, and leading one of the top offenses in the nation.  Texas A&M is averaging 458 passing yds a game and Rice gave up 295 yds passing to ND.  Texas A&M of course has the big upset win at South Carolina in Kenny Hill’s coming out party.  Rice opened at Notre Dame where they got blown out 48-17.  If Notre Dame can score 48 on Rice, Texas A&M can score 70.

College football week 3 best bets part 1

Welcome to week 3 of college football.  Last week our picks went 6-6 leaving us juiced for the weekend.  Our season total is 14-11 which is 56% so we’ve still made some money but not as much after last weekend.  This week we have an exciting allotment of games on deck.  Below are our 2 picks for the Thursday/Friday games.  On Friday we will post our picks for the weekend games.

Thursday night:

North Texas -3 (buy the hook) home against Louisiana Tech.  This is the 3^rd straight road game for LA Tech, which has to start having some kind of toll on this team.  North Texas is home for the 2^nd week in a row, so advantage NT.  Last year North Texas won 28-13 on the road, although the game stats were closer than the score.  LA Tech is 0-4 in its last 4 Thursday games.  Meanwhile North Texas is 8-2 in last 10, 5-1 last 6 Thursday games, 6-1 last 7 conference and 8-1 last 9 at home. 

Friday Night:

Baylor -34.5 @ Buffalo.  Baylor offense is really really good, but we all know that.  Buffalo defense is really bad.  In last week’s blog we advised to take Army against Buffalo and backed that on the fact that Buffalo allowed 28 points to Duquesne, whom has only given scholarships to players for 2 years.  We were right on that as Army scored 47 points against Buffalo.  Read that again, Army scored 47 points!  Last year Baylor beat Buffalo 70-13 (starters pulled after 1 series in 3^rd quarter), although that game was at home, that Buffalo team was better than this one.  Buffalo is 0-4 in last 4, 0-5-1 in last 6 Friday games and 1-5 in last 6 non-conference games.  Baylor is 6-1 in last 7 non-conference games and 24-8 in last 32 overall.  Baylor wins big.

Remember to check back on Friday for the weekend picks, and as always follow me on Twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 2 best bets

Well our 4 picks from last week went 0-4, not a good start.  But we've bounced back and hit the books for week 2.  Week 1 was educational, and I think we made the proper adjustments.  Anyways there are 6 games we think are favorable at current lines.

Pittsburgh +3 @ Baltimore

In our power ratings we have Pittsburgh as +2.5 and +2, and the only reason for those figures is because Baltimore is getting home field points added to them.  On a neutral site this is a pk game or Pittsburgh slight favorite.  Baltimore throws the ball to much, and doesn't stick to the ground game.  Flacco is not a gunslinger, he's a game manager, as long as Baltimore keeps throwing 35+ times a game we will bet against them.

Detroit +3 @ Carolina

in the 2 power ratings we have Detroit should be 1.5 and 1, like Pittsburgh only a dog because Carolina is at home.  The Carolina defense will be tested in this game against Detroits potent offense.  Look for Carolina to run the ball a lot and try to control the clock.  also will try to keep Newton from getting hit.  with Detroit defense so strong up front, Carolina should struggle to run, and Detroit gets the upset.

Cincinnati -5 vs Atlanta

We have Cincy as a -7 and -5 point favorite in both ratings respectively.  Look for Cincy to run the ball more than in week 1, and control the clock better.  Atlanta and it's wide open offense benefited from New Orleans not being a ball control team.

Houston -3 @ Oakland

We have Houston as a -4 and -3.5 point favorite in my ratings systems.  The defense looks like it's old self, while Oakland struggled to move the ball on the road against the Jets.  Oakland could've been bothered by the 1 pm start on the east coast, but these are professionals and I don't accept that as an excuse.  We'll take the aggressive defense against the rookie QB

St. Louis +5.5 @ Tampa Bay

Ugh, I hate this game, but it has to be.  We have St. Louis as a 3.5 and 0.5 underdog in the 2 systems, so getting great value here.  This game is going to be slow and ugly and low scoring.  In those events we want the points.  Plus the week 1 loss at home against Minnesota will leave a bad taste in the mouths of betters and the Rams players alike.  While the bettors run to bet against them, the Rams will be pumped up to prove week 1 was a fluke.  Wait on this one to be pushed higher by the public and go against them.  

Philadelphia +3 @ Indianapolis

We have Philly as 2.5 point favorite in one system and a 2 point dog in the other, either way getting added points.  The Philly offense woke up in the 2nd half.  They run the ball very very well.  Jacksonville only scored off of turnovers/big plays.  Indy offense will be better, but I just don't think Indy can score enough to keep up with Philly.

Good Luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak for more wonderful opinions I have.

college football week 2 recap

What an exciting weekend it was for college football.  Our posted picks went 6-6 on the weekend, but we should’ve been better.  That brings our record on the year to 14-11, which is 56%, and still making money, just not as well as we’d prefer.  Below is the recap of our week 2 picks and why did/didn't cover.

Arizona -7 @ UTSA.  Arizona couldn’t finish once it got into UTSA territory.  They constantly stalled out, and was forced to settle for field goals.  If they could’ve turned one of those field goals into a touchdown, this would’ve been a cover instead of a loss. 

Toledo +3.5 vs Missouri.  This game should’ve been a lot closer.  A few times Ely overthrew a wide open receiver that would’ve been good for a td, and ended up punting.  Missouri took advantage of it’s turnovers, and scored points off of them.  Missouri made a lot of great plays, and was just the better team in this game.  This is one we would’ve lost no matter what.

Tennessee -17 home against Arkansas State.  2 missed field goals by Tennessee.  If that guy makes one of them we get the cover. 

Army -3 vs Buffalo.  Finally a victory.  Army ran all over the Bulls, just like expected.  They tried to make it interesting at the end by letting Buffalo back in it, but held on long enough for the victory and the cover.

New Mexico State -2 @ Georgia State.  This game should’ve been a loss.  I wrote it down as a loss when GSU got up 17-0, but NMST didn’t give up and fought back the whole game.  They shook off the early rust and came back to win in a closer than it should’ve been game.  Sometimes you need to get lucky.

Kentucky -13 vs Ohio.  Kentucky jumped out to the early lead and cover and then set the cruise control for the rest of the game.  This wasn’t the cleanest game, but it would’ve been a different outcome had Kentucky not jumped out to that early 14 point lead.

Maryland -14 @ South Florida.  Maryland won, but didn’t get the cover.  Maryland had 6 turnovers.  You can’t have 6 turnovers and expect to cover, they are lucky they won the game to begin with.  You must protect the ball better if you’re going to play in the Big Ten.

Texas +1.5 vs BYU.  This was the tale of 2 halfs.  The first half, texas held their own and just needed a td to win/cover.  But in the 2^nd half BYU just ran away with the game.  They put the pedal to the metal and never looked back.

Mississippi -20 @ Vanderbilt.  Mississippi owned this game from the opening drive.  Vanderbilt was overmatched at every facet of the game.  It played out just like we expected.

Auburn -32 vs San Jose State.  This one started out 7-7, and the way SJST came right back and matched that first Auburn td, I thought we would be in for a long night.  But Auburn shook off that first drive, and went on to destroy SJST.

Virginia Tech +11 @ Ohio State.  I figured VT would be able to keep this game close.  I never imagined they would win it outright.  The offensive line troubles are still apparent at OSU, and the VT defense lived up to expectations.  Beamer finally has talent back on this team, and we know what he can do with talent.  Watch out for VT this year.

And that was our week in college football.  NFL games are on today, and I posted my NFL picks earlier this week.  Make sure to check out those picks, come back later this week for week 3 of college football, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 1 picks

Here comes the NFL.  Well week 1 started with a blowout in Seattle, with the Seahawks picking up right where they left off.   This year I have an expanded set of data, and systems to use.  I’m incorporating 2 different sets of power ratings, as well as 2 different versions of scoring sheet calculations.  Through these I have 4 different views as to the outcome of the game, and believe they will help me eliminate the tougher games to gauge. Here are my week 1 picks.

Chicago -7 home vs Buffalo.  This is my top play this week.  Of my 2 power ratings one is right at -7 and the other is at -12.5.  Buffalo has struggled on offense all preseason and were forced to give 5 million to Orton because of such poor play from other QB’s on roster.  Chicago offense is awesome.  Look for a lot of big plays from them this week in year 2 under Trestman.  Last year the Bears had injuries on defense that hurt them, as they had the worst rushing defense in the league.  This year they are healthy, and have brought in key replacement players.  Too much fire power from the Bears in this game.

New Orleans -3 @ Atlanta.  NO is 13-3 vs Atlanta, so that’s a good start.  Also, NO improved the #4 ranked defense last year with the addition of Byrd at safety.  ATL lacks a decent pass rush, and Brees should have plenty of time to pick apart the secondary.  I have 2 different power ratings, one has the Saints a 5.5 point favorite the other a 3.5 point favorite.  With Atlanta built to air the ball out this year more than ever, and the Saints defense as strong as it is, I don’t think this will be as close as the experts think. 

St. Louis -4 home vs Minnesota.  This St. Louis defense is for real.  Minnesota’s offense struggles at times, and I don’t expect them to fare very well against such a good defense and on the road for the first week.  Last year StL was +8 in turnovers while Minnesota was -12, and I expect StL to win that battle in this game as well.  Minnesota’s power is in running the ball, and StL’s power is in defensive front 7.  It will be a long day for AP.  I have one power rating system with StL as a -8.5 point favorite and the other calling for them to be -4.5.

Kansas City -3 (buy the half point) home vs Tennessee.  My 2 systems have the Chiefs as a 10 point favorite in one and a 5.5 favorite in the other, so only laying 3 is tremendous value.  Last year KC was +18 in turnovers and Tennessee was +0.  I don’t expect KC to be that good in the turnovers department again this year, but against the Titans I do believe they will have the edge.  Tennessee is switching to a 3-4 defense from the 4-3, so that will give them a few problems.  I don’t see the new defense going on the road, to one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and keeping this game close. 

Thanks for stopping by, now go win some money.  As always good luck this weekend, and don’t forget to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak for more wonderful insight.

college football week 2 part 2

Welcome to college football week 2 part 2.  I was originally going to post this weeks games in 3 parts, but the Friday night games aren't as desirable as I initially thought they were going to be, so only 2 parts.  Arizona disappointed last night, so we start the week in a 0-1 hole, but last Thursday we went 4-0, but finished the weekend 4-5 for an 8-5 week, hopefully this means a better Saturday to come.  And what a Saturday it’s going to be, with lots of great matchups to choose from.  Let’s get to the games.

Mississippi -20 @ Vanderbilt.  Last week I said to play Temple, not as a play on Temple but a play against Vanderbilt.  I felt that getting 14 points on the road with Temple was way to much, and Temple actually won by 30 points.  Now, Mississippi is head and shoulders above Temple, and it took them a little while to get going last week, but they scored 28 points to close out the game, and get a 22 point victory.  I believe Mississippi is the 4^th best team in the SEC, and Vanderbilt doesn’t stand a chance.  Look to bet against Vanderbilt all season.

Auburn -32 home against San Jose State.  In case you don’t know, Auburn is really good.  SJST has dropped 11 straight road openers by 34 points per game.  Since 2001 SJST is 1-21 vs ranked opponents on the road, with the only win being at a ranked Fresno State.  Last year Auburn beat 3 non-conference opponents (Arkansas State, West Carolina and Florida Atlantic) by a combined 145-22.  Also, Auburn has covered 12 straight games, no reason for that to stop with this game.

Toledo +3.5 home against Missouri.  This game opened Missouri -5, so getting to it late cost us 1.5 free points.  That’s okay, because Toledo is pulling the upset and winning outright.  Toledo should win the MAC this year, and Missouri should finish at the bottom of the SEC, yes I know they went to the conference championship game last year, but they lost every playmaker from that team.  Missouri’s game last week against South Dakota State was closer than the scoreboard showed as they only outgained SDST by 28 total yards.  Toledo’s offense is very potent being lead by Alabama transfer Phillip Ely, who threw for 337 yeards and 4 td’s last week.

Tennessee -17 home vs Arkansas State.  Arkansas state is on it’s 5^th head coach in 5 years, and it’s 7^th if you count interim head coaches over the same time span.  Tennessee looked very impressive at home against Utah State last week, even with 20 true freshman playing.  This young talented team loves putting on a show for the home crowd, and they sold out the stadium last week for the first time in years.  I expect another hyped crowd this week and the team will feed off of it even more.  Tennessee has the clear talent edge, and I think they roll

New Mexico State – 2 @ Georgia State.  This isn’t so much a backing of NMST, but rather a fading of GSU.  Last week GSU hosted Abilene Christian and barely snuck out a victory with a last minute field goal.  NMST has 13 returning starters from last years team compared to just 9 for GSU.  With this just GSU’s second year in FBS play, and still struggling to put away FCS opponents, I don’t expect them to be competitive in this game.  Prior to last weeks win, GSU had lost 16 consecutive games, including 13 straight at home. 

Army -3.5 home vs Buffalo.  Khalil Mack is now playing in the NFL and won’t be here to rescue this Buffalo defense any time soon.  Last week Buffalo squeaked by Duquesne, and at one point was trailing 28-24, at home!  How bad is Duquesne?  I didn’t even know they had a football team, and they just started offering football scholarships a few years ago.  Buffalo are 2-14 in road openers.  This is Army’s first game of the season and they return 16 starters from last years squad.  Army’s running backs are combined for 6,002 career rushing yards.  Look for them to run all over this defense.

Kentucky -13 home vs Ohio.  Kentucky is 12-1 at home against non-conference FBS teams since 2006.  Since 2007 Kentucky has played 6 MAC schools and is 6-0 in those games.  The last time they played a MAC school was 2 years ago against a Kent State team that finished the year 11-3, Kentucky beat them 47-14.  Ohio snuck by Kent State last week on a last second field goal, while Kentucky piled up 656 yards of offense against UT Martin.  Look for Kentucky’s offense to roll again this week.

Maryland -14 @ South Florida.  This game opened at -12.5, so we have to give a few points more, but that’s okay as Maryland should win this game by 3 touchdowns.  Last week USF’s defense allowed 454 yards against Western Carolina, and barely won at home 36-31.  Maryland routed James Madison at home 52-7, and had 9 different receivers record a catch.  I just don’t see USF moving the ball on the ground against Maryland the way they did against Western Carolina, and the Terrapins offense will be to much for a porous defense.

Texas +1.5 home vs BYU.  This line opened as Texas -1, so we are either getting great value here, or we will be completely blindsided.  I like to believe we are getting great value.  Texas wants revenge after giving up 550 rushing yards in last years loss to BYU, 40-21.  Last week BYU traveled to Connecticut to play the Huskies, and now they travel to Austin for this matchup.  I expect Texas to pound the ball on the ground and eat up the clock.  I also expect them to play more respectfully on the defensive side of the ball this year.  Texas wins a close one at home.

North Carolina -15.5 home vs San Diego State.  North Carolina is 17-1 in it’s last 18 home games against non-conference opponents.  San Diego State is 2-19 in road openers and has traveled to the east coast only once in 2011 since 1991.  North Carolina’s offense clicked in the 4^th quarter last week, and I expect them to keep that momentum going into this game.  UNC wins big.

Virginia Tech +11 @ Ohio State.  Last week we were backers of OSU laying points on the road against Navy.  We thought with the injury to Miller that we were getting to much value on the depressed line, and it worked out in our favor as OSU was finally able to pull away in the second half.  Well Virginia Tech isn’t Navy, and VT can throw the ball.  OSU strength is in front defensive 7, but they do struggle in the secondary.  VT QB Brewer is a Texas Tech transfer, so you know he can throw the ball.  VT is 19-2 in road openers, while OSU is 50-9 vs non-conference opponents the last 12 years.  VT is always known for it’s defense under Beamer, and OSU is very young on the offensive line, with 4 new starters this year.  That OSU OL struggled at time last week, when Navy’s defense stacked the box and forced Barrett to beat them.  VT has the best secondary in the country, and won’t be as susceptible to the big play that Navy was.  Look for that defense to cause to much pressure on Barrett, and to plug the run.  The VT defense will keep it close, it’s up to Brewer and the offense to pull off the upset.  I’m not calling for an outright upset, but it will be close.  

Thanks for reading and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @Dustin_Dominiak for other delightful insights.

college football week 2 part 1

Last week we got off to a great start with our released picks going 4-0 last Thursday.  We finished a little weaker than we started but still kicked off opening weekend a winner with our picks going 8-5 or 61.5% winners.  You only need to win 53% of the time to make some money, so this is a fantastic start.  We look to continue our run with the Arizona at UTSA game tonight.

The pick is Arizona -7.  I know it seems like a low number, and I've been spending more time trying to figure out why the number is low instead of figuring out who will win.  It seems that Vegas is big fans of UTSA, with the number returning starters from last years team being one of the highest in the country and they did open the season with an upset victory over Houston 27-7, who was opening a new stadium.  Yes, all good vibes are flowing to UTSA when you add in that Arizona is only 2-10 in last 12 road openers.  But I will say this UA team isn't the same ones that wen 2-10.  UA had record breaking yardage gained against UNLV, and I expect this team to be able to run on anyone.  Probably why I have a futures ticket with Arizona to win the Pac-12 conference this year.  Rich Rodriguez never takes his foot off the pedal, and I expect them to put up big points.  You can't win the Pac-12 if you can't win on the road at UTSA.

Check back later for Friday and Saturday picks.  Will probably release a part 2 for Friday games either later today or tomorrow, and Saturday games will be posted in part 3 tomorrow afternoon.  Remember you can get my picks on my twitter page, follow me for all my recent postings @Dustin_Dominiak