Welcome to college football week 2 part 2. I was originally going to post this weeks games in 3 parts, but the Friday night games aren't as desirable as I initially thought they were going to be, so only 2 parts. Arizona disappointed last night, so we start the week in a 0-1 hole, but last Thursday we went 4-0, but finished the weekend 4-5 for an 8-5 week, hopefully this means a better Saturday to come. And what a Saturday it’s going to be, with lots of great matchups to choose from. Let’s get to the games.
Mississippi -20 @ Vanderbilt. Last week I said to play Temple, not as a play on Temple but a play against Vanderbilt. I felt that getting 14 points on the road with Temple was way to much, and Temple actually won by 30 points. Now, Mississippi is head and shoulders above Temple, and it took them a little while to get going last week, but they scored 28 points to close out the game, and get a 22 point victory. I believe Mississippi is the 4th best team in the SEC, and Vanderbilt doesn’t stand a chance. Look to bet against Vanderbilt all season.
Auburn -32 home against San Jose State. In case you don’t know, Auburn is really good. SJST has dropped 11 straight road openers by 34 points per game. Since 2001 SJST is 1-21 vs ranked opponents on the road, with the only win being at a ranked Fresno State. Last year Auburn beat 3 non-conference opponents (Arkansas State, West Carolina and Florida Atlantic) by a combined 145-22. Also, Auburn has covered 12 straight games, no reason for that to stop with this game.
Toledo +3.5 home against Missouri. This game opened Missouri -5, so getting to it late cost us 1.5 free points. That’s okay, because Toledo is pulling the upset and winning outright. Toledo should win the MAC this year, and Missouri should finish at the bottom of the SEC, yes I know they went to the conference championship game last year, but they lost every playmaker from that team. Missouri’s game last week against South Dakota State was closer than the scoreboard showed as they only outgained SDST by 28 total yards. Toledo’s offense is very potent being lead by Alabama transfer Phillip Ely, who threw for 337 yeards and 4 td’s last week.
Tennessee -17 home vs Arkansas State. Arkansas state is on it’s 5th head coach in 5 years, and it’s 7th if you count interim head coaches over the same time span. Tennessee looked very impressive at home against Utah State last week, even with 20 true freshman playing. This young talented team loves putting on a show for the home crowd, and they sold out the stadium last week for the first time in years. I expect another hyped crowd this week and the team will feed off of it even more. Tennessee has the clear talent edge, and I think they roll
New Mexico State – 2 @ Georgia State. This isn’t so much a backing of NMST, but rather a fading of GSU. Last week GSU hosted Abilene Christian and barely snuck out a victory with a last minute field goal. NMST has 13 returning starters from last years team compared to just 9 for GSU. With this just GSU’s second year in FBS play, and still struggling to put away FCS opponents, I don’t expect them to be competitive in this game. Prior to last weeks win, GSU had lost 16 consecutive games, including 13 straight at home.
Army -3.5 home vs Buffalo. Khalil Mack is now playing in the NFL and won’t be here to rescue this Buffalo defense any time soon. Last week Buffalo squeaked by Duquesne, and at one point was trailing 28-24, at home! How bad is Duquesne? I didn’t even know they had a football team, and they just started offering football scholarships a few years ago. Buffalo are 2-14 in road openers. This is Army’s first game of the season and they return 16 starters from last years squad. Army’s running backs are combined for 6,002 career rushing yards. Look for them to run all over this defense.
Kentucky -13 home vs Ohio. Kentucky is 12-1 at home against non-conference FBS teams since 2006. Since 2007 Kentucky has played 6 MAC schools and is 6-0 in those games. The last time they played a MAC school was 2 years ago against a Kent State team that finished the year 11-3, Kentucky beat them 47-14. Ohio snuck by Kent State last week on a last second field goal, while Kentucky piled up 656 yards of offense against UT Martin. Look for Kentucky’s offense to roll again this week.
Maryland -14 @ South Florida. This game opened at -12.5, so we have to give a few points more, but that’s okay as Maryland should win this game by 3 touchdowns. Last week USF’s defense allowed 454 yards against Western Carolina, and barely won at home 36-31. Maryland routed James Madison at home 52-7, and had 9 different receivers record a catch. I just don’t see USF moving the ball on the ground against Maryland the way they did against Western Carolina, and the Terrapins offense will be to much for a porous defense.
Texas +1.5 home vs BYU. This line opened as Texas -1, so we are either getting great value here, or we will be completely blindsided. I like to believe we are getting great value. Texas wants revenge after giving up 550 rushing yards in last years loss to BYU, 40-21. Last week BYU traveled to Connecticut to play the Huskies, and now they travel to Austin for this matchup. I expect Texas to pound the ball on the ground and eat up the clock. I also expect them to play more respectfully on the defensive side of the ball this year. Texas wins a close one at home.
North Carolina -15.5 home vs San Diego State. North Carolina is 17-1 in it’s last 18 home games against non-conference opponents. San Diego State is 2-19 in road openers and has traveled to the east coast only once in 2011 since 1991. North Carolina’s offense clicked in the 4th quarter last week, and I expect them to keep that momentum going into this game. UNC wins big.
Virginia Tech +11 @ Ohio State. Last week we were backers of OSU laying points on the road against Navy. We thought with the injury to Miller that we were getting to much value on the depressed line, and it worked out in our favor as OSU was finally able to pull away in the second half. Well Virginia Tech isn’t Navy, and VT can throw the ball. OSU strength is in front defensive 7, but they do struggle in the secondary. VT QB Brewer is a Texas Tech transfer, so you know he can throw the ball. VT is 19-2 in road openers, while OSU is 50-9 vs non-conference opponents the last 12 years. VT is always known for it’s defense under Beamer, and OSU is very young on the offensive line, with 4 new starters this year. That OSU OL struggled at time last week, when Navy’s defense stacked the box and forced Barrett to beat them. VT has the best secondary in the country, and won’t be as susceptible to the big play that Navy was. Look for that defense to cause to much pressure on Barrett, and to plug the run. The VT defense will keep it close, it’s up to Brewer and the offense to pull off the upset. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but it will be close.
Thanks for reading and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @Dustin_Dominiak for other delightful insights.
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