NFL week 1 picks

Here comes the NFL.  Well week 1 started with a blowout in Seattle, with the Seahawks picking up right where they left off.   This year I have an expanded set of data, and systems to use.  I’m incorporating 2 different sets of power ratings, as well as 2 different versions of scoring sheet calculations.  Through these I have 4 different views as to the outcome of the game, and believe they will help me eliminate the tougher games to gauge. Here are my week 1 picks.

Chicago -7 home vs Buffalo.  This is my top play this week.  Of my 2 power ratings one is right at -7 and the other is at -12.5.  Buffalo has struggled on offense all preseason and were forced to give 5 million to Orton because of such poor play from other QB’s on roster.  Chicago offense is awesome.  Look for a lot of big plays from them this week in year 2 under Trestman.  Last year the Bears had injuries on defense that hurt them, as they had the worst rushing defense in the league.  This year they are healthy, and have brought in key replacement players.  Too much fire power from the Bears in this game.

New Orleans -3 @ Atlanta.  NO is 13-3 vs Atlanta, so that’s a good start.  Also, NO improved the #4 ranked defense last year with the addition of Byrd at safety.  ATL lacks a decent pass rush, and Brees should have plenty of time to pick apart the secondary.  I have 2 different power ratings, one has the Saints a 5.5 point favorite the other a 3.5 point favorite.  With Atlanta built to air the ball out this year more than ever, and the Saints defense as strong as it is, I don’t think this will be as close as the experts think. 

St. Louis -4 home vs Minnesota.  This St. Louis defense is for real.  Minnesota’s offense struggles at times, and I don’t expect them to fare very well against such a good defense and on the road for the first week.  Last year StL was +8 in turnovers while Minnesota was -12, and I expect StL to win that battle in this game as well.  Minnesota’s power is in running the ball, and StL’s power is in defensive front 7.  It will be a long day for AP.  I have one power rating system with StL as a -8.5 point favorite and the other calling for them to be -4.5.

Kansas City -3 (buy the half point) home vs Tennessee.  My 2 systems have the Chiefs as a 10 point favorite in one and a 5.5 favorite in the other, so only laying 3 is tremendous value.  Last year KC was +18 in turnovers and Tennessee was +0.  I don’t expect KC to be that good in the turnovers department again this year, but against the Titans I do believe they will have the edge.  Tennessee is switching to a 3-4 defense from the 4-3, so that will give them a few problems.  I don’t see the new defense going on the road, to one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and keeping this game close. 

Thanks for stopping by, now go win some money.  As always good luck this weekend, and don’t forget to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak for more wonderful insight.