NFL Thursday Night Football NY Giants at Washington Redskins

It was another good week in week 3, with the 8 teams that matched on 4 of our 5 systems or better going 5-3 ATS.  The one team that matched in all 5 systems actually was one of the losses.  Also, depending on when you took the Browns and the points did it depend on your outcome of a loss, push or win, as all 3 were possibilities.  Out of the 8 teams, 7 were suggested with the Saints being left off because of uncertainties with team personnel, turns out the Vikings were without Peterson so this was a better play that initially thought.  So the 7 gave us a record of 4-3, bringing our season total to 8-9, and still improving on that initial 0-4 start to the season.

But all of that is in the past, and now it's time to talk about the future.  The future starts tonight with the NY Giants at Washington Redskins with the Redskins currently a -3.5 point favorite.  All 5 of the systems used match on Redskins getting value at -3.5, as they indicate that it should be somewhere between -4 and -5.5, which would agree with the line opening of -5.  In looking at the season stats through 3 weeks we see that this game will be decided on the ground.  Both teams are averaging around 30 carries per game, and while they are both also averaging over 100 yards per game (NY Giants 109, Redskins 135), the Giants average has greatly benefited from last week against Houston when they rushed for 192 yards.  The Redskins defense is only allowing 65 rushing yards per game, while the Giants are allowing 106.  This indicates that the Redskins would have an easier time to get to their season average than the Giants, allowing them to control the ball and the tempo of the game.  The run will also set up the pass, and give Cousins (second start this year) a better opportunity to succeed.
Also this year the Redskins are averaging 71 plays per game, which is quite high.  The Giants are averaging 64 plays a game.  Surely the Redskins average is given a boost from last weeks shoot out with the Eagles, but a 7 play difference is a touchdown drive.  Look for the Redskins to control the possession of time, and get the easy win.  Just to be on the safe side, pay the extra juice and buy the hook.
Washington Redskins -3

Good luck tonight, and check back tomorrow for the rest of the weekends action.  Oh and be kind, follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak.