Well our 4 picks from last week went 0-4, not a good start. But we've bounced back and hit the books for week 2. Week 1 was educational, and I think we made the proper adjustments. Anyways there are 6 games we think are favorable at current lines.
Pittsburgh +3 @ Baltimore
In our power ratings we have Pittsburgh as +2.5 and +2, and the only reason for those figures is because Baltimore is getting home field points added to them. On a neutral site this is a pk game or Pittsburgh slight favorite. Baltimore throws the ball to much, and doesn't stick to the ground game. Flacco is not a gunslinger, he's a game manager, as long as Baltimore keeps throwing 35+ times a game we will bet against them.
Detroit +3 @ Carolina
in the 2 power ratings we have Detroit should be 1.5 and 1, like Pittsburgh only a dog because Carolina is at home. The Carolina defense will be tested in this game against Detroits potent offense. Look for Carolina to run the ball a lot and try to control the clock. also will try to keep Newton from getting hit. with Detroit defense so strong up front, Carolina should struggle to run, and Detroit gets the upset.
Cincinnati -5 vs Atlanta
We have Cincy as a -7 and -5 point favorite in both ratings respectively. Look for Cincy to run the ball more than in week 1, and control the clock better. Atlanta and it's wide open offense benefited from New Orleans not being a ball control team.
Houston -3 @ Oakland
We have Houston as a -4 and -3.5 point favorite in my ratings systems. The defense looks like it's old self, while Oakland struggled to move the ball on the road against the Jets. Oakland could've been bothered by the 1 pm start on the east coast, but these are professionals and I don't accept that as an excuse. We'll take the aggressive defense against the rookie QB
St. Louis +5.5 @ Tampa Bay
Ugh, I hate this game, but it has to be. We have St. Louis as a 3.5 and 0.5 underdog in the 2 systems, so getting great value here. This game is going to be slow and ugly and low scoring. In those events we want the points. Plus the week 1 loss at home against Minnesota will leave a bad taste in the mouths of betters and the Rams players alike. While the bettors run to bet against them, the Rams will be pumped up to prove week 1 was a fluke. Wait on this one to be pushed higher by the public and go against them.
Philadelphia +3 @ Indianapolis
We have Philly as 2.5 point favorite in one system and a 2 point dog in the other, either way getting added points. The Philly offense woke up in the 2nd half. They run the ball very very well. Jacksonville only scored off of turnovers/big plays. Indy offense will be better, but I just don't think Indy can score enough to keep up with Philly.
Good Luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak for more wonderful opinions I have.
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