Football Picks update

Well since my post 2 weeks ago where I described my success so far this year in picking against the spread winners in football, I've had even more lopsided returns.  I call them lopsided because I'm dominating college football, and I suck at the NFL.  It's to the point where I'm ready to give up on NFL games, and stick to NCAAF games.  The biggest difference between the way I pick is that I use a system for NFL and I go with my gut for college.  Either I need to fix the system I'm using, or scrap it all together and go with my gut.  I'm currently negotiating with a guy I know whose success this year is the opposite of my, he's winning NFL and losing college.  Hopefully me and him can work out a deal to swap picks where I supply him with college winners and he gives me the NFL winners.  Here is a review of the past 2 weeks (I do have the Lions +6.5 pending in tonights MNF matchup against the Bears).

Lets start with college football.  In week 7 I went 4-2, which took my win percentage for college games from 64.29% to 65%.  Not a big jump by all means, but baby steps in the right direction.  Remember it takes 53% to make money, and I have a target win % of 62% for the year, so we are ahead on both fronts.  In week 8 of college football my tweeted picks went 6-1.  That glorious day took my win % from 65% to an outstanding 70.37% for the season.  My weekly records are: 3-0; 3-2; 3-3; 4-2; and 6-1 (remember I didn't start picking games in week 1, I waited until week 4).  Hopefully this streak continues as the trend show, and I don't revert to the mean like the law of averages suggests. 

Now for the NFL.  I hate the NFL right now.  After weeks 4 and 5 I stood with a 3-3 record or 50% winning percentage.  I then went 1-3 in week 6, which put me at 4-6 (40%) overall.  I followed that stink up with another 1-2 week 7, putting me at 5-8 or 38.46% on the season (as noted above I do have the Lions tonight in MNF, so I can go 2-2 on the week which would put me at 6-8 or 42.86%, but if I lose that game I will drop to 5-9 or 35.71%).  No matter how you look at it, I'm horrible in the NFL games. 

If you combine my college and NFL picks I stand at 24-16 or 60% on the season.  This is short of my 62% goal, but in the ball park.  I need to get my NFL picks turned around, as they are driving down my win percentage incredibly.  I think I can do it, but only time will tell.

Thanks for reading,
Dustin Dominiak