Okay, I'm a little late getting this posted so I'm going to get right to it. Take San Diego and the points. Currently you can get San Diego +9.5 at even money, and I don't think you can get better value than that.
In the past 5 years when divisional opponents play on a Thursday night and the spread is 7 points or greater, the underdog is 7-2 ATS.
Since coming to Denver, Peyton Manning is only 4-6 ATS versus AFC west opponents when favored by 7 points or more. Further that he is just 2-3 since last season.
San Diego is 7-0-4 ATS in last 11 in Denver.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in last 6 meetings between these 2 teams.
Road team is 12-4-5 ATS in the last 21 games.
There you have it, value and situation sit with the underdog Chargers.
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Showing posts with label Thursday night football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thursday night football. Show all posts
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Thursday, October 16, 2014
NFL Thursday night football
In this weeks Thursday night match up we have the stumbling New York Jets traveling to the New England Patriots in this divisional rivalry game. The Patriots are currently favored by -10 points, which seems to be mostly driven by the past 2 weeks success they have had, and the Jets inability to do anything with the ball on offense.
I have the Patriots getting value in 3 of my 5 systems, and the other 2 systems agreeing with the line of Patriots -10.
In looking at the 2014 season stats we see that the 2 teams are pretty balanced here with the Jets averaging 27 attempts for 121 yards per game while the Patriots are averaging 30 attempts for 110 yards. While the Jets have the higher YPC average, the slight edge here goes to the Patriots as they average more attempts and allows them to control the game a little more.
In the passing game, the Patriots really show their efficiency over the Jets. The Jets are throwing the ball 35 times for 182 yards per game. The Patriots are throwing it 36 times for 239 yards per game. Big edge to the Patriots here as the Jets defense is also allowing 235 yards per game in the air.
Next we need to look at turnovers. The Jets are averaging 0.8 fumbles and 1.2 interceptions per game, while the Patriots defense is averaging 1.2 fumble recoveries and 1.2 interceptions per game. Knowing these tidbits it's safe to assume that the Jets will have at least 1 fumble and 1 interception in this game. On the other side the Patriots offense is averaging 0.5 fumbles per game and only 0.3 interceptions per game, while the Jets are taking away .3 fumbles and .2 interceptions per game. If New England has any turnovers in this game it will be a fumble, so the Patriots get the turnover advantage.
I don't expect either team to miss any field goals in this game, as both teams kicking game has been solid all year.
So the Patriots get the slight edge in rushing, and the definitive edge in passing and turnovers. Knowing this information, I tend to agree with my systems that the Patriots are the right side to be on. However, I don't see enough value on this game so I'm passing. If you need some action Thursday night take the Patriots at home, but keep it small, as that is a lot of chalk to cover against a divisional foe.
Thanks for stopping by, and remember to follow me on Twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
I have the Patriots getting value in 3 of my 5 systems, and the other 2 systems agreeing with the line of Patriots -10.
In looking at the 2014 season stats we see that the 2 teams are pretty balanced here with the Jets averaging 27 attempts for 121 yards per game while the Patriots are averaging 30 attempts for 110 yards. While the Jets have the higher YPC average, the slight edge here goes to the Patriots as they average more attempts and allows them to control the game a little more.
In the passing game, the Patriots really show their efficiency over the Jets. The Jets are throwing the ball 35 times for 182 yards per game. The Patriots are throwing it 36 times for 239 yards per game. Big edge to the Patriots here as the Jets defense is also allowing 235 yards per game in the air.
Next we need to look at turnovers. The Jets are averaging 0.8 fumbles and 1.2 interceptions per game, while the Patriots defense is averaging 1.2 fumble recoveries and 1.2 interceptions per game. Knowing these tidbits it's safe to assume that the Jets will have at least 1 fumble and 1 interception in this game. On the other side the Patriots offense is averaging 0.5 fumbles per game and only 0.3 interceptions per game, while the Jets are taking away .3 fumbles and .2 interceptions per game. If New England has any turnovers in this game it will be a fumble, so the Patriots get the turnover advantage.
I don't expect either team to miss any field goals in this game, as both teams kicking game has been solid all year.
So the Patriots get the slight edge in rushing, and the definitive edge in passing and turnovers. Knowing this information, I tend to agree with my systems that the Patriots are the right side to be on. However, I don't see enough value on this game so I'm passing. If you need some action Thursday night take the Patriots at home, but keep it small, as that is a lot of chalk to cover against a divisional foe.
Thanks for stopping by, and remember to follow me on Twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
Thursday, October 9, 2014
NFL Thursday Night Football Indianapolis at Houston free pick
Thursday night football at its finest tonight with this AFC South battle. Houston is much improved over last year, as expected, but Indianapolis is flying high on offense. Andrew Luck is coming into his own as a QB in the NFL, and keeps putting up big numbers. This will be his biggest test of the season so far as he is traveling on a short week, and going up against a tough Houston defense at home.
Houston doesn't have very high rankings in defense yards allowed per game or passing yards allowed, but they haven't kept points off the board, bending but never breaking. They have a tendency to stay calm, and happy to keep the games close and hope to pull them out in the end. They've been a rushing team this year behind Arian Foster, and Deandre Hopkins has become a legit threat on the outside in his 2nd year. The biggest reason for the turnaround in 2014 for Houston has been because of the run game. They are averaging almost 32 rushing attempts per game, allowing them to control the clock and the flow of the game. Also, they aren't playing from behind as much, and aren't forced to air it out in hopes of getting back in games, but I didn't watch a lot of Houston last year so maybe they fell behind because they were throwing the ball and not completing passes.
Indianapolis defense hasn't faced much rushing this year as the offense has gotten out and put points up on the board and forced other teams to throw to try to get back in the game quickly. The colts defense is giving up nearly 5 yards per carry as they are still allowing 102 ypg on the ground on only 22 attempts. That's not good against a team that is rushing the ball 32 times a game and averaging 127 yards per game. Indianapolis has controlled the ball in it's first 5 games averaging nearly 75 plays per game, which is 18 more per game than their opponents. Houston is running a lot less plays on offense, averaging almost 60 plays per game while facing 64 plays per game. I don't believe the play differential will be as large in this game as in prior Colts games.
Final thought on this game is turnovers. So far this year Indianapolis has 3 fumbles and 6 interceptions on offense and 4 fumble recoveries and 6 interceptions on defense leaving them with a -1 turnover ratio. Houston has only fumbled the ball twice while recovery 7 and has thrown 6 interceptions while picking off 5 leaving them with +4 in the turnover department.
As long as Houston keeps control of the game and ball they will keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset. Take the home team and the points in this one.
Houston doesn't have very high rankings in defense yards allowed per game or passing yards allowed, but they haven't kept points off the board, bending but never breaking. They have a tendency to stay calm, and happy to keep the games close and hope to pull them out in the end. They've been a rushing team this year behind Arian Foster, and Deandre Hopkins has become a legit threat on the outside in his 2nd year. The biggest reason for the turnaround in 2014 for Houston has been because of the run game. They are averaging almost 32 rushing attempts per game, allowing them to control the clock and the flow of the game. Also, they aren't playing from behind as much, and aren't forced to air it out in hopes of getting back in games, but I didn't watch a lot of Houston last year so maybe they fell behind because they were throwing the ball and not completing passes.
Indianapolis defense hasn't faced much rushing this year as the offense has gotten out and put points up on the board and forced other teams to throw to try to get back in the game quickly. The colts defense is giving up nearly 5 yards per carry as they are still allowing 102 ypg on the ground on only 22 attempts. That's not good against a team that is rushing the ball 32 times a game and averaging 127 yards per game. Indianapolis has controlled the ball in it's first 5 games averaging nearly 75 plays per game, which is 18 more per game than their opponents. Houston is running a lot less plays on offense, averaging almost 60 plays per game while facing 64 plays per game. I don't believe the play differential will be as large in this game as in prior Colts games.
Final thought on this game is turnovers. So far this year Indianapolis has 3 fumbles and 6 interceptions on offense and 4 fumble recoveries and 6 interceptions on defense leaving them with a -1 turnover ratio. Houston has only fumbled the ball twice while recovery 7 and has thrown 6 interceptions while picking off 5 leaving them with +4 in the turnover department.
As long as Houston keeps control of the game and ball they will keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset. Take the home team and the points in this one.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
NFL Thursday Night Football NY Giants at Washington Redskins
It was another good week in week 3, with the 8 teams that matched on 4 of our 5 systems or better going 5-3 ATS. The one team that matched in all 5 systems actually was one of the losses. Also, depending on when you took the Browns and the points did it depend on your outcome of a loss, push or win, as all 3 were possibilities. Out of the 8 teams, 7 were suggested with the Saints being left off because of uncertainties with team personnel, turns out the Vikings were without Peterson so this was a better play that initially thought. So the 7 gave us a record of 4-3, bringing our season total to 8-9, and still improving on that initial 0-4 start to the season.
But all of that is in the past, and now it's time to talk about the future. The future starts tonight with the NY Giants at Washington Redskins with the Redskins currently a -3.5 point favorite. All 5 of the systems used match on Redskins getting value at -3.5, as they indicate that it should be somewhere between -4 and -5.5, which would agree with the line opening of -5. In looking at the season stats through 3 weeks we see that this game will be decided on the ground. Both teams are averaging around 30 carries per game, and while they are both also averaging over 100 yards per game (NY Giants 109, Redskins 135), the Giants average has greatly benefited from last week against Houston when they rushed for 192 yards. The Redskins defense is only allowing 65 rushing yards per game, while the Giants are allowing 106. This indicates that the Redskins would have an easier time to get to their season average than the Giants, allowing them to control the ball and the tempo of the game. The run will also set up the pass, and give Cousins (second start this year) a better opportunity to succeed.
Also this year the Redskins are averaging 71 plays per game, which is quite high. The Giants are averaging 64 plays a game. Surely the Redskins average is given a boost from last weeks shoot out with the Eagles, but a 7 play difference is a touchdown drive. Look for the Redskins to control the possession of time, and get the easy win. Just to be on the safe side, pay the extra juice and buy the hook.
Washington Redskins -3
Good luck tonight, and check back tomorrow for the rest of the weekends action. Oh and be kind, follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak.
But all of that is in the past, and now it's time to talk about the future. The future starts tonight with the NY Giants at Washington Redskins with the Redskins currently a -3.5 point favorite. All 5 of the systems used match on Redskins getting value at -3.5, as they indicate that it should be somewhere between -4 and -5.5, which would agree with the line opening of -5. In looking at the season stats through 3 weeks we see that this game will be decided on the ground. Both teams are averaging around 30 carries per game, and while they are both also averaging over 100 yards per game (NY Giants 109, Redskins 135), the Giants average has greatly benefited from last week against Houston when they rushed for 192 yards. The Redskins defense is only allowing 65 rushing yards per game, while the Giants are allowing 106. This indicates that the Redskins would have an easier time to get to their season average than the Giants, allowing them to control the ball and the tempo of the game. The run will also set up the pass, and give Cousins (second start this year) a better opportunity to succeed.
Also this year the Redskins are averaging 71 plays per game, which is quite high. The Giants are averaging 64 plays a game. Surely the Redskins average is given a boost from last weeks shoot out with the Eagles, but a 7 play difference is a touchdown drive. Look for the Redskins to control the possession of time, and get the easy win. Just to be on the safe side, pay the extra juice and buy the hook.
Washington Redskins -3
Good luck tonight, and check back tomorrow for the rest of the weekends action. Oh and be kind, follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak.
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