One of the systems that I maintain is what I call the Vegas line. It's basically a power rating system, but one that uses much smaller point values assigned to each team than my other power rating system. In reviewing this ranking results from the first 4 weeks of the NFL season, something spectacular jumped out at me. It is all based on the value the Vegas line calculated compared to the spread. Teams with 2.5 or more points of value, according to the Vegas line, are 11-4 against the spread through week 4. That's a 73% winning margin, and 20% higher than what you need to win to break even.
I've compiled the data for week 5 and I've found 5 teams that have 2.5 points or more value ATS. Now I'm not sure that the 73% winning margin will continue, but it won't hurt to track for a few weeks and see how it progresses. Here are the teams with 2.5 points of value or more for week 5.
Tennessee +1.5 vs Cleveland.
According to the Vegas line this should be a pick em game on a neutral field, but adjusting for home field and Tennessee should be -2.5 point favorite. Since they are an underdog we are getting 4 points of value.
Atlanta +4 at NY Giants
Even after adjusting for home field, Atlanta should only be a 1 point underdog according to the Vegas line. That leaves 3 points of value. And who doesn't need an extra field goal every now and then.
Houston +6 @ Dallas
The Vegas line has 3 points of value for Houston, and is saying that on a neutral site this would be a pick em game.
Buffalo +7 @ Detroit
This game is also showing 3 points of value for Buffalo as they should only be a 4 point underdog on the road.
New England +1.5 vs Cincinnati
I know this seems like a tough pill to swallow based on year to date results for both teams, but the Vegas line is showing 2.5 points of value with New England. Which makes sense because I don't remember the last time the Patriots were underdogs at home with Bellicheck and Brady together.
That's the Vegas line results. I'm still compiling the data for my other 4 systems, but wanted to pass this note along. Check back later for my official week 5 picks, and as always follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
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