NFL Thursday night football

In this weeks Thursday night match up we have the stumbling New York Jets traveling to the New England Patriots in this divisional rivalry game.  The Patriots are currently favored by -10 points, which seems to be mostly driven by the past 2 weeks success they have had, and the Jets inability to do anything with the ball on offense.

I have the Patriots getting value in 3 of my 5 systems, and the other 2 systems agreeing with the line of Patriots -10.

In looking at the 2014 season stats we see that the 2 teams are pretty balanced here with the Jets averaging 27 attempts for 121 yards per game while the Patriots are averaging 30 attempts for 110 yards.  While the Jets have the higher YPC average, the slight edge here goes to the Patriots as they average more attempts and allows them to control the game a little more.

In the passing game, the Patriots really show their efficiency over the Jets.  The Jets are throwing the ball 35 times for 182 yards per game.  The Patriots are throwing it 36 times for 239 yards per game.  Big edge to the Patriots here as the Jets defense is also allowing 235 yards per game in the air.

Next we need to look at turnovers.  The Jets are averaging 0.8 fumbles and 1.2 interceptions per game, while the Patriots defense is averaging 1.2 fumble recoveries and 1.2 interceptions per game.  Knowing these tidbits it's safe to assume that the Jets will have at least 1 fumble and 1 interception in this game.  On the other side the Patriots offense is averaging 0.5 fumbles per game and only 0.3 interceptions per game, while the Jets are taking away .3 fumbles and .2 interceptions per game.  If New England has any turnovers in this game it will be a fumble, so the Patriots get the turnover advantage.

I don't expect either team to miss any field goals in this game, as both teams kicking game has been solid all year.

So the Patriots get the slight edge in rushing, and the definitive edge in passing and turnovers.  Knowing this information, I tend to agree with my systems that the Patriots are the right side to be on.  However, I don't see enough value on this game so I'm passing.  If you need some action Thursday night take the Patriots at home, but keep it small, as that is a lot of chalk to cover against a divisional foe.

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