NFL week 5 free game picks

Earlier in the week I posted some games that represented 2.5 points or more of value compared to my vegas line, and since some of those lines have move and now only 3 of those original games are left.  Those weren't my weekly picks though, as they were just the results of one system.  Here are my 3 picks for the week.

New Orleans -10 vs Tampa Bay
You'll need to buy this down from -10.5, but I prefer the key number.  New Orleans has struggled on the road so far this season, but have covered and won the only home game they played.  They still have 7 home games left and only 5 road games, so they can still turn season around, and they need to do that with a big win this week.  Tampa Bay is coming off a road upset of Pittsburgh, and New Orleans was blown out by Dallas.  People are over reacting to that, and staying away from New Orleans.  I think that is a mistake.  The Super dome is one of the hardest places for road teams to play, and New Orleans will want to make a statement.  Look for them to win big here.

San Diego -6.5 vs NY Jets
The Chargers are playing extremely well right now, while the Jets have somethings that still need to be figured out, and now they have to travel across the country to play the Chargers.  Doesn't sound like a great recipe for success.  The chargers passing game is doing extremely well right now, and Rivers has lots of weapons at his disposal.  The Jets, who were my sleeper pick for the year, have been disappointing on defense, especially in stopping the pass.  The Chargers pull out a great one here.

Buffalo +7 @ Detroit
Yes Detroit has a very stout defense, especially against the run.  Last week was the first time this season the lions allowed 100+ rushing yards.  Buffalo is a run first team and they are actually averaging 28 rushing attempts and 122 yards rushing per game, which is almost identical to what the lions gave up last week to the jets.  Looking deeper into this, the lions offensive statistics nearly match the bills defense statistics in yards and attempts for both rushing and passing.  If both teams hit season averages, then I think the Bills can keep it close or pull the upset.  The line hasn't moved off the key number of 7, I was hoping to get a few more points out of this, but doesn't seem likely.  The move at QB for the Bills doesn't frighten me as I actually think it makes them slightly better.  Look for the Bills to continue to pound the ball on the ground, and then take advantage of the Lions sucking in the secondary to stop it and going over the top.  Buffalo and the points.

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