NFL week 5 Monday Night Football free pick

Well the 3 games I wrote about yesterday went 2-1, not bad.  But there is still one game left in the week and it represents a chance to get another win.  Here are my thoughts on tonight's game.

Of the 5 systems that I maintain one of them is what I call game expectations.  A brief explanation of what I do is; enter the number of rush attempts, rush yards, pass attempts, pass yards, int's (both off and def), fumbles (both off and def) and missed field goals.  Each of those categories has a point total assigned to it, once all is added up and home field advantage is added in the difference is the line.  Any variance between that difference and the line is the value.  

It's not that complicated once I see what average stats are for those with the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined and also the 2014 season alone.  It's a little time consuming and I should spend more time with it, but it's been my most successful system so far this year.  In weeks 1-3 the teams it said had value on them were 10-6 ATS in each week.  In week 4 that record dropped to 7-6, but so far this week the results are 10-4.  

In drilling into those results some more I see there are 3 key value numbers: 1 (5-0 ATS), 2 (6-2 ATS), 3 (7-2 ATS) and 8 (7-2 ATS).  All of those are 75% or greater ATS.  Oh and that counts pushes as being incorrect, so those games like Cleveland on Sunday (also a GE 3) get counted in the loss column instead of wins because it was a push and the system was incorrect in predicting value.  We got our money back at least with that one, so the percentages could be even better!!

So what does this have to do with anything?  Well it just so happens that the Redskins are on one of those key numbers.  My game expectations line is Seattle -4, but since the line is Seattle -7 then we have 3 points of value with the Redskins.  And 3 has been covering 78% so for this season.  This is the 3rd game this week with a GE value of 3, the others were Cleveland (pushed the bet but counted as incorrect), and Houston which covered.

When I look at my 4 other systems 3 of them agree with my GE system and show value on Washington.  The only outlier of the 5 systems is the one I call Value Rating, and when it is the lone outlier the ATS record is 3-1.

So if you need some action tonight take the Redskins.  I'd keep it small though.  

Thanks for stopping by, check back later for next weeks picks.  And as always be kind and follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak