College football 2014 week 1 part 1

Below are my picks for the Thursday and Friday night games.  Tomorrow I will post my picks for the weekend games.

Thursday:
South Carolina vs Texas A&M over 61 points - Texas A&M defense has been bad the last couple of years, the only reason they've won games is because of the offense.  No reason to suspect anything different this year.  South Carolina has it's most experience offensive line in school history, and the Aggies are returning 89 starts on it's offensive line.  South Carolina lost 2 All American defensive lineman.  While I do believe South Carolina will win this game, I'm not confident on how many points they will win by.  I am confident that both offenses will take advantage of weak defenses and score lots of points.

Louisiana Monroe -1 vs Wake Forest - Last year Wake Forest won this game, but that was a fluke.  This year, ULM get's revenge.  WF is only 5-20 in it's past 25 openers on the road while ULM is 5-1 in it's past 6 home openers.  WF has a new HC, new scheme, basically a new everything.  ULM HC is entering his 5th year and returning 15 starters.

Tulsa -6.5 vs Tulane - Again another team getting revenge over a loss last year.  Tulane beat Tulsa for the first time in 9 tries last year at home.  Tulsa wants revenge.  Tulsa has 10 starters returning on defense.  Tulane won't move the ball as well against them this year, plus Tulsa has advantage of being at home, and laying less than a touchdown shouldn't be a problem.

Temple +14 at Vanderbilt - this is more a play against Vanderbilt than it is a play for Temple.  The Commodores have a new HC and only returning 10 starters.  Temple played much better than last years 2-10 record, which included 5 games lost by 7 points or less.  Vanderbilt should win the game, but it will be closer than the 14 point spread.

Colorado -3 neutral site vs Colorado State - CSU lost its leading rusher and 4 starters on the O-line.  Colorado leads this series 17-6.  CU won last year by 14 points, and the only reason it was that close was because of 2 big special teams plays by CSU.  CU is returning 16 starters compared to CSU's 12.  Finally CU coach MacIntyre has beaten CSU 3 straight years if you include his tenure at San Jose St.

I tweeted all of these picks the other day, but the lines have changes since my tweets.  I've updated the lines for this blog.  Follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak for more picks.

College Football 2014

College football is back!!  Last night the season kicked off with an entertaining game between ACU and GSU.  GSU squeaked out a win with a last minute field goal, but they had to fight all game to get the victory.  ACU got the cover though, and when it comes to gambling that is all that matters.
Once again I will be releasing my weekly picks here, on twitter, and maybe a few youtube videos this year.  We have a big slate of games tonight, so let the parties begin.  I can already smell the bbq and booze at the tailgates.

Check back later for my picks for tonight and tomorrow nights games.  I'll have another post on Friday for my weekend picks.

NFL Conference Champs - NFC

I like value plays, almost as much as I like cash flow, but value usually leads to cash flow, so it all works out.  And what better place to look for value than the NFL futures market, and the conference championships.
Today we are talking about the NFC, and the value that lies with 2 teams.  Again this doesn't mean that I believe these 2 teams will win the NFC championship, but I believe they have a better chance than the odds makers are giving them.  Everybody knows who the top 2 teams are in the NFC, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, but they are expensive to play in the futures market at +200, and you're better off betting them on the money line each week instead of making a future bet with them.
First up is the New Orleans Saints at +$1,000 meaning a bet of $100 will win you $1,000.  Lets be serious about this, Drew Brees is amazing, and is a top 3 QB in the league.  This offense will continue to put up big numbers each week.  They play their home games in the Super Dome, which is an unfair advantage right there, and almost guarantees 8 wins.  The defense was much improved last year, and should be even better in year 2 under Ryan as defensive coordinator.  Also, they added the 2nd best safety in the game to the secondary this season, that will obviously help.
My second play might be a bit more shocking, but it's the Chicago Bears also at +$1,000.  Like San Diego yesterday, this is year 2 of Treastman as the head coach, and teams always do better in year 2 of a new coach.  This offense is also poised to score a lot of points with great skill position players, and a very strong offensive line.  Cutler has never looked better, and Jeffries will be even better this year.  Also like the Saints, this defense should improve over last year.  The Bears defense took a step back last year, and I don't feel they ever found their identity.  That won't happen again this year.  Chicago has always been built around the defense, and the city won't accept what happened last year to happen again.  Look for improvement on both sides of the ball.

But I am just one man, and this is my opinion.

Dusitn Dominiak

NFL Conference Champs - AFC

I've been looking at the futures bets you can place for the conference champions in both the NFC and AFC.  For now I want to concentrate on the AFC, and the value that lies with 2 teams.  That doesn't mean that I believe these 2 teams will win the AFC championship, but I believe they have a better chance than the odds makers are giving them.  Everybody knows who the top 2 teams are in the AFC, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, but they are expensive to play in the futures market, and you're better off betting them on the money line each week instead of making a future bet with them.
First up is the San Diego Chargers.  Yes they compete directly with the Broncos in the west, but this isn't to win the division, it's to win the conference championship.  You can get the Chargers at +$2,000, which means if you bet $100 and they win the conference championship, you win $1,500 (Whereas with Denver you have to bet $250 to win $100).  That's a nice little payout for a team that improved dramatically last year.  We are in year 2 of a new head coach, who seems to be getting the best of Phillip Rivers.  The passing game will be better this year.  The defense should also be improved.
The second team is the New York Jets.  Stop laughing, I'm serious.  The Jets are at +$2,500, so nobody in Las Vegas expects them to compete for the conference title.  But they did win 8 games last year, on the play of their defense.  They added a few playmakers to the offense, giving Geno a few extra targets to play with, which should help progress his development.  Also, they added the best safety available in this years draft to that defense that won them 8 games last year, plus they should finally get something out of Milner, since he didn't show up as a rookie.  That should get them to 10 wins and a spot in the playoffs.  I think this team is built eerily similar to the Baltimore Ravens team that won the Super Bowl 2 years ago.
Again, I'm not saying that they will win, as we all know they aren't supposed to win.  I'm saying they give you the best value for return on your investment IF they do win.

But I'm just one man, and this is my opinion.

Dustin Dominiak

Betting the NBA Finals

Anybody looking to gamble on the NBA finals?  If so, I have one piece of advice, take the home team.  While both of these teams had ATS cover % below .500 for the regular season home games, they have both flipped the switch in the playoffs and protecting their court.  San Antonio had a better ATS record in the regular season, but are just 9-9 in the playoffs.  Miami is 10-5 so far in the playoffs, and playing like a completely different team when it comes to the spread.  

I put together the below data in a spreadsheet breaking down how both teams did in various scenarios for all games played, regular season games and playoff games.  I've broken down the results for total games, home, away, favorite, underdog, home favorite, away favorite, and away underdog.  I know I missed home underdog, but neither of these teams were underdogs at home at any point during the season.

If we concentrate on the playoffs only (which I would recommend because 1) most recent sample size and 2) playoffs are a different game) then you want to bet on the home team for every game.  The home team will/should be the favorite in each game.  However, if for some reason Miami is a road favorite, I would take them.  

As you see in the below image Miami is 6-2 and cover by an average of 4.7 ppg when they are home favorites in the playoffs.  San Antonio is 7-3 with an avg cover of 8.9 ppg when they are home favorites.

Miami is the first team below and San Antonio is the second.  I'm experiencing technical difficulties in getting the color correct, my apologies.

stock watch OMEX

If you would like a cheap stock to buy, that has potential for huge gains look into OMEX which is Odyssey Marine exploration.

They just got the contract to retrieve the remaining gold from the ship SS Central America that sunk in the 1850's carrying gold from California to New York City off the shores of South America.  In the 1990's half of the known gold was recovered, but because of lawsuits and claims on the gold, nobody was allowed to touch it until last month when Odyssey won the contract.  The half that is left is valued around 60 million, with I believe 80% of all recovered gold going to Odyssey.  Here's the kicker though, there is supposedly 15 tons of government gold on the ship as well, that is included in the 60 million haul.  If that is true the value of the gold down there could be closer to 125 million.  Anyways, the stock is like 2.20 a share, so it might be worth investing a couple hundred dollars on the chance that OMEX hits it big and the stock spikes.  

Sterling’s Fold

Sterling’s Fold «



The link above takes you to a great piece to read by Bill Simmons of Grantland.com



Dustin Dominiak