NFL week 8 Thursday night Football San Diego at Denver

Okay, I'm a little late getting this posted so I'm going to get right to it.  Take San Diego and the points.  Currently you can get San Diego +9.5 at even money, and I don't think you can get better value than that.

In the past 5 years when divisional opponents play on a Thursday night and the spread is 7 points or greater, the underdog is 7-2 ATS.

Since coming to Denver, Peyton Manning is only 4-6 ATS versus AFC west opponents when favored by 7 points or more.  Further that he is just 2-3 since last season.

San Diego is 7-0-4 ATS in last 11 in Denver.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in last 6 meetings between these 2 teams.

Road team is 12-4-5 ATS in the last 21 games.

There you have it, value and situation sit with the underdog Chargers.

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NFL week 7 Arizona at Oakland

Arizona -4 at Oakland

This is my lock of the week pick.  Arizona is one of the strongest teams in the NFL this year, and that’s been with a revolving door at QB.  Palmer is back for a second week in a row, and this isn’t a division opponent so don’t look for the Raiders to be up for it.  The Cardinals defense is amazing this year. 

Not only do 4 of my 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Cardinals in this game, but it also has 3 key numbers, including on the 1 system that disagrees and puts value on the Raiders.  I have the Cardinals as getting 3 points of value in my game expectations systems, and that number has been 7-4 so far this season.  My vegas line system has the Cardinals getting 2.5 points of value and that number so far this year is 4-3.  Finally, the one that drove home the selection for me, the outlier of the 5 systems, my 13/14 system has the Raiders getting 1 point of value, but that number is only 1-5 in the 6 times it’s come up, and the home team fails to cover by -7.5 points.  Yes, you read that right, in the 6 times the home underdog has had value of 1 point, they fail to cover by more than a touchdown.  Arizona wins BIG.

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NFL week 7 Atlanta at Baltimore

Atlanta +7 at Baltimore

Yes, Atlanta lost at home to the Bears last week and they have put up back to back stink shows.  Yes, the Ravens dominated the Bucs last week at home.  But each week in the NFL is like a new life, you never know what is going to happen.  4 of my 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Falcons in this game.  Also, 3 of those 4 systems in agreement are on key numbers for the Falcons.

The most convincing for me of the key numbers is the result from my game expectations system.  That system shows the Falcons as having 1 point of value, and for all games this year with 1 point of value they have yet to lose ATS with a record of 6-0.  Look for that trend to continue here this week.

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NFL week 7 Cleveland at Jacksonville

Cleveland -6 at Jacksonville

Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL.  No, I’m not saying that because of record.  I’m saying it because ever ratings system that I’ve seen has the Jaguars on the bottom, and it’s not even close.  Cleveland is much improved this year, and they keep getting better each week.  They needed a monster come from behind at half time victory to get over the Titans, but that just shows this team doesn’t stop. 

Only 3 of my 5 systems agree on the value with the Browns, but the 2 systems that say the value is on the Jaguars are on key numbers for the Browns.  For example, my 13/14 system says that the Jaguars have 3 points of value in this game, but when I look at the past results of home underdogs with 3 points value in my 13/14 summary I see they are only 3-5 against the spread, and miss the cover by an average of -2.5 points.  Cleveland rolls on the road again.

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NFL Week 7 Miami at Chicago

Chicago -3 vs Miami

This is an intriguing matchup.  Miami is coming off a tough home loss to Green Bay, who won in the final seconds.  Chicago is coming off a road win at Atlanta.  The dolphins are 1-1 on the road so far this year, and the Bears are somehow 0-2 at home.  Obviously being win less at home is something the Bears will want to change.  

All 5 systems that I maintain show value on the Bears side.  When all 5 systems agree, the results have been split so far this year, but 2 of the systems fall on key system numbers, that have generated excellent results, and 2 more that are nearly split 50/50.  Both teams have struggled with turnovers this year.  Look for Cutler to have a good day, and the Bears to get their first home win of the season.

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college football week 8 ATS best bets part 1

Not a lot of time, getting right to it.  Here are the games I like up until the 4 pm kick off times

Tulsa +2 vs USF
Ignore the records, and the stats.  A home team getting points against a very poor team?  I will take it

Florida Atlantic +4.5 vs Western Kentucky
Same example as above, both teams have 2 wins, and we're getting points at home.  Easy play

Virginia +3.5 @ Duke
Virginia is coming in off a bye, and has one of the best defenses in the nation.  Duke survived on the road last week against Georgia Tech, but that was mostly from GT shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly.  Duke benefited from 3 turnovers and 2 missed FG by GT.  Virginia is better and more disciplined than GT, and coming in rested.  Throw some points on top of it and that's the recipe of success.

Clemson -5 @ Boston College
Yes BC is improved this year, and yes they play better at home, but this Clemson team will just be to much for them to handle.  Clemson has more fire power on offense than any team BC has faced this year.  Look for them to continue putting up big points on the road.

Arkansas +3.5 vs Georgia
These two teams are built extremely similar with power runs and power defenses.  Arkansas is better than people give them credit for, and last week Georgia wanted to prove that they didn't need Gurley, so it was a statement game.  This is the 2nd week in a row on the road for Georgia, and they are down to their 4th running back on the year.  Look for Arkansas to squeak out the win.

TCU -8.5 vs Oklahoma State
This line isn't available anymore, but it's the line I locked in 2 days ago so that's what I'm posting.  I'd still play TCU at -10.  This line has steamed up from the open of -8.  The TCU offense is way to good to be stopped, and the defense is better than most think.  Look for them to defend their home turf, and make a statement with this game.

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NFL Thursday night football

In this weeks Thursday night match up we have the stumbling New York Jets traveling to the New England Patriots in this divisional rivalry game.  The Patriots are currently favored by -10 points, which seems to be mostly driven by the past 2 weeks success they have had, and the Jets inability to do anything with the ball on offense.

I have the Patriots getting value in 3 of my 5 systems, and the other 2 systems agreeing with the line of Patriots -10.

In looking at the 2014 season stats we see that the 2 teams are pretty balanced here with the Jets averaging 27 attempts for 121 yards per game while the Patriots are averaging 30 attempts for 110 yards.  While the Jets have the higher YPC average, the slight edge here goes to the Patriots as they average more attempts and allows them to control the game a little more.

In the passing game, the Patriots really show their efficiency over the Jets.  The Jets are throwing the ball 35 times for 182 yards per game.  The Patriots are throwing it 36 times for 239 yards per game.  Big edge to the Patriots here as the Jets defense is also allowing 235 yards per game in the air.

Next we need to look at turnovers.  The Jets are averaging 0.8 fumbles and 1.2 interceptions per game, while the Patriots defense is averaging 1.2 fumble recoveries and 1.2 interceptions per game.  Knowing these tidbits it's safe to assume that the Jets will have at least 1 fumble and 1 interception in this game.  On the other side the Patriots offense is averaging 0.5 fumbles per game and only 0.3 interceptions per game, while the Jets are taking away .3 fumbles and .2 interceptions per game.  If New England has any turnovers in this game it will be a fumble, so the Patriots get the turnover advantage.

I don't expect either team to miss any field goals in this game, as both teams kicking game has been solid all year.

So the Patriots get the slight edge in rushing, and the definitive edge in passing and turnovers.  Knowing this information, I tend to agree with my systems that the Patriots are the right side to be on.  However, I don't see enough value on this game so I'm passing.  If you need some action Thursday night take the Patriots at home, but keep it small, as that is a lot of chalk to cover against a divisional foe.

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NFL week 6 ATS best bets

Last weeks picks went 2-1, I'll take it.  This week we have 4 games for you, and a few suggestions on teaser plays.  Little time to waste so lets get straight to the picks.

Cleveland pk vs Pittsburgh
Second meeting for these teams.  It was a tale of 2 halves in the first meeting with Pittsburgh dominating the first half and Cleveland running the 2nd.  Cleveland in coming off the biggest come from behind win in team history last week in the 2nd half on the road at Tennessee.  Cleveland needs to get it going for 60 minutes and not 30, and I think this is the week they get it together.  They play tough at home, and Pittsburgh has struggled on the road this year.  Take the home team.

Atlanta -3 vs Chicago
Atlanta wins at home and loses on the road.  Devin Hester has his best game of the season against his former coach Lovie Smith, and I think he will put forth an even bigger effort against his former team.  The Falcons have too much speed for the Bears defense.  Granted the Falcons defense hasn't been anything to write home about this year, but the offense on the turf in a dome is deadly.  Falcons win the close one.

Tampa Bay +3.5 vs Baltimore
Since week 1 Tampa Bay is the most improved team so far this season.  They play really tough grind it out football.  They dropped a heart breaker last week on the road to New Orleans, which is a really tough place to play.  Baltimore looks good but not great.  They have been running a balance offense, which has helped them this year, but they haven't faced a defense like Tampa's yet this year.  Look for the Bucs to keep it close, and maybe get the outright win.

San Diego -7 @ Oakland
What can I say, best team in the NFL taking on the worst.  Granted this is on the road, but it doesn't matter the Raiders don't have any of the type of players that the Chargers do.  The Chargers offense is so good, and so balanced this year, teams don't know where the ball is going.  They probably have the most depth at WR than they have ever had in Rivers career, and he is hitting all of his targets.  Look for the Chargers to keep the blowouts going, and win big this week.

For a few teaser options here is what I'm looking at.
6.5 point teaser
Green Bay +3.5 and Cincinnati -0.5
Taking the Packers as a -3 favorite and turning them into a 3.5 dog is great, especially since you get the hook in this one.  Cincinnati will look to bounce back at home against Carolina after a stinker on the road to New England last week.  Both teams get the win, and we get the cash

6.5 point teaser
Atlanta +3.5 and San Diego -1
2 teams we outlined above, but with a little extra security.  Now we only need an SD win, easily done, and we get the hook with the Falcons again.

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College Football weekly ATS picks

Welcome back for another exciting week in college football.  Last week our picks started out strong, but faltered in the late games, starting with the collapse of the Michigan State offense, and snowballing from there.  It was a great week of football though, with so many exciting games.  Here are this weeks NCAAF best bets.

Friday night lights!
Fresno State -9.5 @ UNLV
UNLV is not good.  The defense is extremely porous.  Fresno State is battle tested as they played 3 big 5 conference opponents to start the season.  After those 3 games they have been on a tear.  No reason for them to let off the gas in this game, Fresno State wins BIG!

UCLA +2.5 vs Oregon
Yes UCLA was a let down last week, but maybe they were looking ahead to this match up against Oregon knowing the ducks had a few extra days to prepare.  Oregon is coming off an upset at home at the hands of Arizona.  Don't expect a bounce back game from Oregon.  The offensive line is not playing good, and now they need to go on the road and play against a solid front 7.  No reason for UCLA to be the underdog here, take the points and watch the Bruins win.

Mississippi State +3 vs Auburn
Auburn has played well in big games this year, but the win over LSU last week is not a sign of this weeks match up.  LSU is having a down year, and is a year away before they are ready to have that young talent competing down there.  Mississippi State proved that they are for real last week with a big win at home vs Texas A&M.  Auburn only big road test this year was against Kansas State, and KSU gifted that game to Auburn with missed field goals and turnovers and KSU still covered the spread.  Take the home team and the points in this one.

Ole Miss +2.5 @ Texas A&M
This could be a trap game for Ole Miss coming off the big home upset of Alabama, but I believe they will overcome that.  They proved they have the defense needed to hang with anyone in the SEC, and Texas A&M has proved that they don't have a defense and they struggle against good defenses.  Ole Miss will take advantage of an aggies team that can't stop anyone and come away with a big road win.

Tulane -3 vs UConn
This isn't a play on Tulane but rather a play against UConn.  UConn is bad, and now they have to travel.  I just don't trust UConn on the road to lose by less than 3 points.

Georgia Tech -3 vs Duke
I first thought Duke was the play in this game, and then I noticed that they are allowing close to 200 yards rushing per game.  Guess what, Georgia Tech runs the ball better than anyone in the college football.  Duke did have a bye week before this game, and GT is coming off it's biggest game of the season, but that won't matter, the rambling wreck will run over the blue devils in this one.

Oklahoma -14 vs Texas
Oklahoma wants to bounce back with a statement game after lasts weeks stinker versus TCU.  Lucky for them Texas has no offense close to the capabilities of TCU.  Stoops doesn't lose back to back games, and he loves running up the score on Texas when he has the chance.  Look for a statement from OU in this one.

Northwestern +4 @ Minnesota
Northwestern doesn't like playing easy games against non-conference foes it seems.  The last few weeks against Big Ten opponents they have looked like the team expected this year.  Minnesota is coming off a bye and are home, but this will be a close game, as both teams like to control the clock and have stout defenses.  Look for a close low scoring affair.

West Virginia -5.5 @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech is another team that can't stop the ball.  West Virginia has been up and down this year, but look for them to take advantage of the poor defense to bounce back.  WVU by 7.

Notre Dame -16.5 vs North Carolina
UNC can't stop the ball, and UND has a potent offense.  That's the recipe for a blow out.  Notre Dame will be looking to put up big numbers on offense this week after being held to lowest point total this year against Stanford.  That game shouldn't have been that close as the Irish had the yard and first down advantage.

Notre Dame/UNC over 62
Notre Dame can score a lot of points, and they won't have to play in the poor weather this week.  UNC can't stop the ball at all, so look for UND to put up a lot of points and dominate this one.

Arizona +3 vs USC
Arizona could be in for a let down game after pulling the big upset on the road in Oregon last week, but I doubt that.  They are home this week, and had a few extra days to prepare as they played last Thursday.  USC is coming off a let down game at home where they were upset by Arizona State as a double digit favorite.  Look for them to be 0-2 against teams from Arizona after this week.

NFL Thursday Night Football Indianapolis at Houston free pick

Thursday night football at its finest tonight with this AFC South battle.  Houston is much improved over last year, as expected, but Indianapolis is flying high on offense.  Andrew Luck is coming into his own as a QB in the NFL, and keeps putting up big numbers.  This will be his biggest test of the season so far as he is traveling on a short week, and going up against a tough Houston defense at home. 
Houston doesn't have very high rankings in defense yards allowed per game or passing yards allowed, but they haven't kept points off the board, bending but never breaking.  They have a tendency to stay calm, and happy to keep the games close and hope to pull them out in the end.  They've been a rushing team this year behind Arian Foster, and Deandre Hopkins has become a legit threat on the outside in his 2nd year.  The biggest reason for the turnaround in 2014 for Houston has been because of the run game.  They are averaging almost 32 rushing attempts per game, allowing them to control the clock and the flow of the game.  Also, they aren't playing from behind as much, and aren't forced to air it out in hopes of getting back in games, but I didn't watch a lot of Houston last year so maybe they fell behind because they were throwing the ball and not completing passes. 

Indianapolis defense hasn't faced much rushing this year as the offense has gotten out and put points up on the board and forced other teams to throw to try to get back in the game quickly.  The colts defense is giving up nearly 5 yards per carry as they are still allowing 102 ypg on the ground on only 22 attempts.  That's not good against a team that is rushing the ball 32 times a game and averaging 127 yards per game.  Indianapolis has controlled the ball in it's first 5 games averaging nearly 75 plays per game, which is 18 more per game than their opponents.  Houston is running a lot less plays on offense, averaging almost 60 plays per game while facing 64 plays per game.  I don't believe the play differential will be as large in this game as in prior Colts games.

Final thought on this game is turnovers.  So far this year Indianapolis has 3 fumbles and 6 interceptions on offense and 4 fumble recoveries and 6 interceptions on defense leaving them with a -1 turnover ratio.  Houston has only fumbled the ball twice while recovery 7 and has thrown 6 interceptions while picking off 5 leaving them with +4 in the turnover department.

As long as Houston keeps control of the game and ball they will keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset.  Take the home team and the points in this one.

NFL week 5 Monday Night Football free pick

Well the 3 games I wrote about yesterday went 2-1, not bad.  But there is still one game left in the week and it represents a chance to get another win.  Here are my thoughts on tonight's game.

Of the 5 systems that I maintain one of them is what I call game expectations.  A brief explanation of what I do is; enter the number of rush attempts, rush yards, pass attempts, pass yards, int's (both off and def), fumbles (both off and def) and missed field goals.  Each of those categories has a point total assigned to it, once all is added up and home field advantage is added in the difference is the line.  Any variance between that difference and the line is the value.  

It's not that complicated once I see what average stats are for those with the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined and also the 2014 season alone.  It's a little time consuming and I should spend more time with it, but it's been my most successful system so far this year.  In weeks 1-3 the teams it said had value on them were 10-6 ATS in each week.  In week 4 that record dropped to 7-6, but so far this week the results are 10-4.  

In drilling into those results some more I see there are 3 key value numbers: 1 (5-0 ATS), 2 (6-2 ATS), 3 (7-2 ATS) and 8 (7-2 ATS).  All of those are 75% or greater ATS.  Oh and that counts pushes as being incorrect, so those games like Cleveland on Sunday (also a GE 3) get counted in the loss column instead of wins because it was a push and the system was incorrect in predicting value.  We got our money back at least with that one, so the percentages could be even better!!

So what does this have to do with anything?  Well it just so happens that the Redskins are on one of those key numbers.  My game expectations line is Seattle -4, but since the line is Seattle -7 then we have 3 points of value with the Redskins.  And 3 has been covering 78% so for this season.  This is the 3rd game this week with a GE value of 3, the others were Cleveland (pushed the bet but counted as incorrect), and Houston which covered.

When I look at my 4 other systems 3 of them agree with my GE system and show value on Washington.  The only outlier of the 5 systems is the one I call Value Rating, and when it is the lone outlier the ATS record is 3-1.

So if you need some action tonight take the Redskins.  I'd keep it small though.  

Thanks for stopping by, check back later for next weeks picks.  And as always be kind and follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak 

NFL week 5 free game picks

Earlier in the week I posted some games that represented 2.5 points or more of value compared to my vegas line, and since some of those lines have move and now only 3 of those original games are left.  Those weren't my weekly picks though, as they were just the results of one system.  Here are my 3 picks for the week.

New Orleans -10 vs Tampa Bay
You'll need to buy this down from -10.5, but I prefer the key number.  New Orleans has struggled on the road so far this season, but have covered and won the only home game they played.  They still have 7 home games left and only 5 road games, so they can still turn season around, and they need to do that with a big win this week.  Tampa Bay is coming off a road upset of Pittsburgh, and New Orleans was blown out by Dallas.  People are over reacting to that, and staying away from New Orleans.  I think that is a mistake.  The Super dome is one of the hardest places for road teams to play, and New Orleans will want to make a statement.  Look for them to win big here.

San Diego -6.5 vs NY Jets
The Chargers are playing extremely well right now, while the Jets have somethings that still need to be figured out, and now they have to travel across the country to play the Chargers.  Doesn't sound like a great recipe for success.  The chargers passing game is doing extremely well right now, and Rivers has lots of weapons at his disposal.  The Jets, who were my sleeper pick for the year, have been disappointing on defense, especially in stopping the pass.  The Chargers pull out a great one here.

Buffalo +7 @ Detroit
Yes Detroit has a very stout defense, especially against the run.  Last week was the first time this season the lions allowed 100+ rushing yards.  Buffalo is a run first team and they are actually averaging 28 rushing attempts and 122 yards rushing per game, which is almost identical to what the lions gave up last week to the jets.  Looking deeper into this, the lions offensive statistics nearly match the bills defense statistics in yards and attempts for both rushing and passing.  If both teams hit season averages, then I think the Bills can keep it close or pull the upset.  The line hasn't moved off the key number of 7, I was hoping to get a few more points out of this, but doesn't seem likely.  The move at QB for the Bills doesn't frighten me as I actually think it makes them slightly better.  Look for the Bills to continue to pound the ball on the ground, and then take advantage of the Lions sucking in the secondary to stop it and going over the top.  Buffalo and the points.

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