Not a lot of time, getting right to it. Here are the games I like up until the 4 pm kick off times
Tulsa +2 vs USF
Ignore the records, and the stats. A home team getting points against a very poor team? I will take it
Florida Atlantic +4.5 vs Western Kentucky
Same example as above, both teams have 2 wins, and we're getting points at home. Easy play
Virginia +3.5 @ Duke
Virginia is coming in off a bye, and has one of the best defenses in the nation. Duke survived on the road last week against Georgia Tech, but that was mostly from GT shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly. Duke benefited from 3 turnovers and 2 missed FG by GT. Virginia is better and more disciplined than GT, and coming in rested. Throw some points on top of it and that's the recipe of success.
Clemson -5 @ Boston College
Yes BC is improved this year, and yes they play better at home, but this Clemson team will just be to much for them to handle. Clemson has more fire power on offense than any team BC has faced this year. Look for them to continue putting up big points on the road.
Arkansas +3.5 vs Georgia
These two teams are built extremely similar with power runs and power defenses. Arkansas is better than people give them credit for, and last week Georgia wanted to prove that they didn't need Gurley, so it was a statement game. This is the 2nd week in a row on the road for Georgia, and they are down to their 4th running back on the year. Look for Arkansas to squeak out the win.
TCU -8.5 vs Oklahoma State
This line isn't available anymore, but it's the line I locked in 2 days ago so that's what I'm posting. I'd still play TCU at -10. This line has steamed up from the open of -8. The TCU offense is way to good to be stopped, and the defense is better than most think. Look for them to defend their home turf, and make a statement with this game.
thanks for stopping by and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
Showing posts with label NCAAF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAAF. Show all posts
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Friday, October 10, 2014
College Football weekly ATS picks
Welcome back for another exciting week in college football. Last week our picks started out strong, but faltered in the late games, starting with the collapse of the Michigan State offense, and snowballing from there. It was a great week of football though, with so many exciting games. Here are this weeks NCAAF best bets.
Friday night lights!
Fresno State -9.5 @ UNLV
UNLV is not good. The defense is extremely porous. Fresno State is battle tested as they played 3 big 5 conference opponents to start the season. After those 3 games they have been on a tear. No reason for them to let off the gas in this game, Fresno State wins BIG!
UCLA +2.5 vs Oregon
Yes UCLA was a let down last week, but maybe they were looking ahead to this match up against Oregon knowing the ducks had a few extra days to prepare. Oregon is coming off an upset at home at the hands of Arizona. Don't expect a bounce back game from Oregon. The offensive line is not playing good, and now they need to go on the road and play against a solid front 7. No reason for UCLA to be the underdog here, take the points and watch the Bruins win.
Mississippi State +3 vs Auburn
Auburn has played well in big games this year, but the win over LSU last week is not a sign of this weeks match up. LSU is having a down year, and is a year away before they are ready to have that young talent competing down there. Mississippi State proved that they are for real last week with a big win at home vs Texas A&M. Auburn only big road test this year was against Kansas State, and KSU gifted that game to Auburn with missed field goals and turnovers and KSU still covered the spread. Take the home team and the points in this one.
Ole Miss +2.5 @ Texas A&M
This could be a trap game for Ole Miss coming off the big home upset of Alabama, but I believe they will overcome that. They proved they have the defense needed to hang with anyone in the SEC, and Texas A&M has proved that they don't have a defense and they struggle against good defenses. Ole Miss will take advantage of an aggies team that can't stop anyone and come away with a big road win.
Tulane -3 vs UConn
This isn't a play on Tulane but rather a play against UConn. UConn is bad, and now they have to travel. I just don't trust UConn on the road to lose by less than 3 points.
Georgia Tech -3 vs Duke
I first thought Duke was the play in this game, and then I noticed that they are allowing close to 200 yards rushing per game. Guess what, Georgia Tech runs the ball better than anyone in the college football. Duke did have a bye week before this game, and GT is coming off it's biggest game of the season, but that won't matter, the rambling wreck will run over the blue devils in this one.
Oklahoma -14 vs Texas
Oklahoma wants to bounce back with a statement game after lasts weeks stinker versus TCU. Lucky for them Texas has no offense close to the capabilities of TCU. Stoops doesn't lose back to back games, and he loves running up the score on Texas when he has the chance. Look for a statement from OU in this one.
Northwestern +4 @ Minnesota
Northwestern doesn't like playing easy games against non-conference foes it seems. The last few weeks against Big Ten opponents they have looked like the team expected this year. Minnesota is coming off a bye and are home, but this will be a close game, as both teams like to control the clock and have stout defenses. Look for a close low scoring affair.
West Virginia -5.5 @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech is another team that can't stop the ball. West Virginia has been up and down this year, but look for them to take advantage of the poor defense to bounce back. WVU by 7.
Notre Dame -16.5 vs North Carolina
UNC can't stop the ball, and UND has a potent offense. That's the recipe for a blow out. Notre Dame will be looking to put up big numbers on offense this week after being held to lowest point total this year against Stanford. That game shouldn't have been that close as the Irish had the yard and first down advantage.
Notre Dame/UNC over 62
Notre Dame can score a lot of points, and they won't have to play in the poor weather this week. UNC can't stop the ball at all, so look for UND to put up a lot of points and dominate this one.
Arizona +3 vs USC
Arizona could be in for a let down game after pulling the big upset on the road in Oregon last week, but I doubt that. They are home this week, and had a few extra days to prepare as they played last Thursday. USC is coming off a let down game at home where they were upset by Arizona State as a double digit favorite. Look for them to be 0-2 against teams from Arizona after this week.
Friday night lights!
Fresno State -9.5 @ UNLV
UNLV is not good. The defense is extremely porous. Fresno State is battle tested as they played 3 big 5 conference opponents to start the season. After those 3 games they have been on a tear. No reason for them to let off the gas in this game, Fresno State wins BIG!
UCLA +2.5 vs Oregon
Yes UCLA was a let down last week, but maybe they were looking ahead to this match up against Oregon knowing the ducks had a few extra days to prepare. Oregon is coming off an upset at home at the hands of Arizona. Don't expect a bounce back game from Oregon. The offensive line is not playing good, and now they need to go on the road and play against a solid front 7. No reason for UCLA to be the underdog here, take the points and watch the Bruins win.
Mississippi State +3 vs Auburn
Auburn has played well in big games this year, but the win over LSU last week is not a sign of this weeks match up. LSU is having a down year, and is a year away before they are ready to have that young talent competing down there. Mississippi State proved that they are for real last week with a big win at home vs Texas A&M. Auburn only big road test this year was against Kansas State, and KSU gifted that game to Auburn with missed field goals and turnovers and KSU still covered the spread. Take the home team and the points in this one.
Ole Miss +2.5 @ Texas A&M
This could be a trap game for Ole Miss coming off the big home upset of Alabama, but I believe they will overcome that. They proved they have the defense needed to hang with anyone in the SEC, and Texas A&M has proved that they don't have a defense and they struggle against good defenses. Ole Miss will take advantage of an aggies team that can't stop anyone and come away with a big road win.
Tulane -3 vs UConn
This isn't a play on Tulane but rather a play against UConn. UConn is bad, and now they have to travel. I just don't trust UConn on the road to lose by less than 3 points.
Georgia Tech -3 vs Duke
I first thought Duke was the play in this game, and then I noticed that they are allowing close to 200 yards rushing per game. Guess what, Georgia Tech runs the ball better than anyone in the college football. Duke did have a bye week before this game, and GT is coming off it's biggest game of the season, but that won't matter, the rambling wreck will run over the blue devils in this one.
Oklahoma -14 vs Texas
Oklahoma wants to bounce back with a statement game after lasts weeks stinker versus TCU. Lucky for them Texas has no offense close to the capabilities of TCU. Stoops doesn't lose back to back games, and he loves running up the score on Texas when he has the chance. Look for a statement from OU in this one.
Northwestern +4 @ Minnesota
Northwestern doesn't like playing easy games against non-conference foes it seems. The last few weeks against Big Ten opponents they have looked like the team expected this year. Minnesota is coming off a bye and are home, but this will be a close game, as both teams like to control the clock and have stout defenses. Look for a close low scoring affair.
West Virginia -5.5 @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech is another team that can't stop the ball. West Virginia has been up and down this year, but look for them to take advantage of the poor defense to bounce back. WVU by 7.
Notre Dame -16.5 vs North Carolina
UNC can't stop the ball, and UND has a potent offense. That's the recipe for a blow out. Notre Dame will be looking to put up big numbers on offense this week after being held to lowest point total this year against Stanford. That game shouldn't have been that close as the Irish had the yard and first down advantage.
Notre Dame/UNC over 62
Notre Dame can score a lot of points, and they won't have to play in the poor weather this week. UNC can't stop the ball at all, so look for UND to put up a lot of points and dominate this one.
Arizona +3 vs USC
Arizona could be in for a let down game after pulling the big upset on the road in Oregon last week, but I doubt that. They are home this week, and had a few extra days to prepare as they played last Thursday. USC is coming off a let down game at home where they were upset by Arizona State as a double digit favorite. Look for them to be 0-2 against teams from Arizona after this week.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
College Football week 6 free picks
Last week was a nice bounce back week, finishing in the black for the day. There are a lot of good lines out there, so I won't waste any time.
Georgia -33.5 vs Vanderbilt
Yes, again against Vandy. Last week they barely moved the ball on offense and the only score they got was on an interception return. Kentucky looked like they were content to coast to the win as they didn't take any chances in the 2nd half. Georgia is coming off a disappointing game last week, and last time they disappointed they came out with a statement win against a lesser opponent. Vandy is also a lesser opponent and I expect Georgia to treat them the same way.
East Carolina -40.5 vs SMU
SMU is quite possibly the worst team in FBS, them and Eastern Michigan are definitely battling for that title. East Carolina offense has been running on all cylinders this year. SMU can't stop anybody. SMU is losing by an average of 47 points per game. They are hitting the road after back to back rough home games against Texas A&M and TCU. I don't expect ECU to be any gentler on them and the SMU average point loss gets larger after this game.
Virginia -5 vs Pittsburgh
Virginia is playing well above expectations this year, and they keep getting better each week. Pittsburgh on the other hand has been heading in the opposite direction, and last week were upset at home against Akron. Pittsburgh seems to have trouble stopping the ball, while Virginia's defense is one of it's strengths. Look for Virginia to handle Pittsburgh at home.
West Virginia -28 vs Kansas
Kansas is bad, really bad. They just fired Charlie Weis, and now have to travel to West Virginia. WVU's offense is flying on all cylinders, and the Jayhawks can't stop anybody. Look for WVU to take advantage of a sloppy Kansas program.
Mississippi State -3 vs Texas A&M
Texas A&M got lucky last week to squeak by with the win against Arkansas, and now have to travel to a dangerous Mississippi State. This will be TA&M hardest game of the season. Dak Prescott is in complete control of this offense, as he lead the dismantling of LSU in Death Valley last week. I don't expect a let down game here, and the crowd will make it difficult on TA&M.
Notre Dame+2.5 vs Stanford
Notre Dame plus points at home this season, thank you Vegas for an early christmas gift. Stanford's defense has been good this year, limiting opponents all year. But the offense has left something to be desired. Notre Dame is playing well on both sides of the ball. Look for them to pull the upset at home this week.
Auburn -7 vs LSU
Need to buy this down from -7.5, but it's money well spent. LSU has been susceptible to the run all season, and that works in Auburn's favor as they love to run the ball. The magnificent ATS streak Auburn was on came to an end at Kansas State, but they are starting a fresh one after a big win last week. Look for that streak to be 2 after this week.
USC -11.5 vs Arizona State
ASU is coming off a had and disappointing loss to UCLA at home last week. They expected to play better and be competitive in the whole game, but that wasn't the case. USC had it's eye opener when they traveled to Boston College and was upset. They won't overlook any opponents for the rest of the season. Look for them to take care of ASU and get some revenge for the loss last year on the road.
Ball State +2.5 vs Army
Ball State hasn't been that impressive this year, but they had guys out with injuries and are starting to get healthy. Army has not been good all year and last week lost to lowly Yale. Ball State offense will be to much for the black knights this week, and they pull the upset.
Kansas State -14 vs Texas Tech
You'll need to buy this down from the current line of -14.5, but again a little extra security is good. Texas Tech has trouble stopping other teams from moving the ball and putting up points. They haven't faced a defense as good as Kansas State yet this year. KSU is coming off a bounce back win after the disappointing loss at home to Auburn. Auburn was lucky to win that game, Texas Tech won't be so lucky.
Mississippi +6 vs Alabama
This is the game Ole Miss wanted and this is the one its got. College Game Day will be there, and all eyes will be on this 3:30 game. Look for the home team to feed off the crowd, and keep this game close all game. I'm not quite ready to say that Ole Miss will get the upset, but they will have the chance to.
Michigan State -6.5 vs Nebraska
Nebraska hasn't seen a defense like this, and will probably have some trouble running the ball as successfully as they have all year. Michigan State is playing like a team possessed, and will seek to make amends for the let down game in Oregon in week 2 with a statement win against a ranked opponent at home.
Nebraska @ Michigan State over 59 points
Both offenses have been playing good, and while this will be the best defense that Nebraska has faced this year I still expect them to score some points.
Air force +3.5 vs Navy
Air Force is getting points at home in a rivalry game, and they have the better offense. I'm either missing something or this is the 2nd early xmas gift from Vegas this week.
UCLA -13.5 vs Utah
Uh-oh someone woke the dragon. And in this case the dragon is the UCLA offense. I expect them to continue the success that they started last week on the road in a route of Arizona State.
Rutgers -1.5 vs Michigan
Big Ten surprise of the year, Rutgers is good and Michigan is bad. Michigan can't defend it's own turf. The student body and alumni are calling for the head coaches head and the AD's as well. It's not a good time to be a wolverine. They will be getting away from it all with a trip out east, but with Hoke coaching for his job, I think he comes up short because as the pressure has been at it's highest he is at his lowest. Hoke gets fired after this loss.
Nevada +4.5 vs Boise State
Boise State is struggling a little bit this year and isn't the BSU teams of old. Nevada has been exceeding expectations all year, and will want to have some revenge for all the time BSU beat them. Look for a late night cover, and possible SU upset.
That's a lot of games. You don't have to play them all, pick your favorites, there is enough to go around. Good luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
Georgia -33.5 vs Vanderbilt
Yes, again against Vandy. Last week they barely moved the ball on offense and the only score they got was on an interception return. Kentucky looked like they were content to coast to the win as they didn't take any chances in the 2nd half. Georgia is coming off a disappointing game last week, and last time they disappointed they came out with a statement win against a lesser opponent. Vandy is also a lesser opponent and I expect Georgia to treat them the same way.
East Carolina -40.5 vs SMU
SMU is quite possibly the worst team in FBS, them and Eastern Michigan are definitely battling for that title. East Carolina offense has been running on all cylinders this year. SMU can't stop anybody. SMU is losing by an average of 47 points per game. They are hitting the road after back to back rough home games against Texas A&M and TCU. I don't expect ECU to be any gentler on them and the SMU average point loss gets larger after this game.
Virginia -5 vs Pittsburgh
Virginia is playing well above expectations this year, and they keep getting better each week. Pittsburgh on the other hand has been heading in the opposite direction, and last week were upset at home against Akron. Pittsburgh seems to have trouble stopping the ball, while Virginia's defense is one of it's strengths. Look for Virginia to handle Pittsburgh at home.
West Virginia -28 vs Kansas
Kansas is bad, really bad. They just fired Charlie Weis, and now have to travel to West Virginia. WVU's offense is flying on all cylinders, and the Jayhawks can't stop anybody. Look for WVU to take advantage of a sloppy Kansas program.
Mississippi State -3 vs Texas A&M
Texas A&M got lucky last week to squeak by with the win against Arkansas, and now have to travel to a dangerous Mississippi State. This will be TA&M hardest game of the season. Dak Prescott is in complete control of this offense, as he lead the dismantling of LSU in Death Valley last week. I don't expect a let down game here, and the crowd will make it difficult on TA&M.
Notre Dame+2.5 vs Stanford
Notre Dame plus points at home this season, thank you Vegas for an early christmas gift. Stanford's defense has been good this year, limiting opponents all year. But the offense has left something to be desired. Notre Dame is playing well on both sides of the ball. Look for them to pull the upset at home this week.
Auburn -7 vs LSU
Need to buy this down from -7.5, but it's money well spent. LSU has been susceptible to the run all season, and that works in Auburn's favor as they love to run the ball. The magnificent ATS streak Auburn was on came to an end at Kansas State, but they are starting a fresh one after a big win last week. Look for that streak to be 2 after this week.
USC -11.5 vs Arizona State
ASU is coming off a had and disappointing loss to UCLA at home last week. They expected to play better and be competitive in the whole game, but that wasn't the case. USC had it's eye opener when they traveled to Boston College and was upset. They won't overlook any opponents for the rest of the season. Look for them to take care of ASU and get some revenge for the loss last year on the road.
Ball State +2.5 vs Army
Ball State hasn't been that impressive this year, but they had guys out with injuries and are starting to get healthy. Army has not been good all year and last week lost to lowly Yale. Ball State offense will be to much for the black knights this week, and they pull the upset.
Kansas State -14 vs Texas Tech
You'll need to buy this down from the current line of -14.5, but again a little extra security is good. Texas Tech has trouble stopping other teams from moving the ball and putting up points. They haven't faced a defense as good as Kansas State yet this year. KSU is coming off a bounce back win after the disappointing loss at home to Auburn. Auburn was lucky to win that game, Texas Tech won't be so lucky.
Mississippi +6 vs Alabama
This is the game Ole Miss wanted and this is the one its got. College Game Day will be there, and all eyes will be on this 3:30 game. Look for the home team to feed off the crowd, and keep this game close all game. I'm not quite ready to say that Ole Miss will get the upset, but they will have the chance to.
Michigan State -6.5 vs Nebraska
Nebraska hasn't seen a defense like this, and will probably have some trouble running the ball as successfully as they have all year. Michigan State is playing like a team possessed, and will seek to make amends for the let down game in Oregon in week 2 with a statement win against a ranked opponent at home.
Nebraska @ Michigan State over 59 points
Both offenses have been playing good, and while this will be the best defense that Nebraska has faced this year I still expect them to score some points.
Air force +3.5 vs Navy
Air Force is getting points at home in a rivalry game, and they have the better offense. I'm either missing something or this is the 2nd early xmas gift from Vegas this week.
UCLA -13.5 vs Utah
Uh-oh someone woke the dragon. And in this case the dragon is the UCLA offense. I expect them to continue the success that they started last week on the road in a route of Arizona State.
Rutgers -1.5 vs Michigan
Big Ten surprise of the year, Rutgers is good and Michigan is bad. Michigan can't defend it's own turf. The student body and alumni are calling for the head coaches head and the AD's as well. It's not a good time to be a wolverine. They will be getting away from it all with a trip out east, but with Hoke coaching for his job, I think he comes up short because as the pressure has been at it's highest he is at his lowest. Hoke gets fired after this loss.
Nevada +4.5 vs Boise State
Boise State is struggling a little bit this year and isn't the BSU teams of old. Nevada has been exceeding expectations all year, and will want to have some revenge for all the time BSU beat them. Look for a late night cover, and possible SU upset.
That's a lot of games. You don't have to play them all, pick your favorites, there is enough to go around. Good luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
Friday, September 26, 2014
College football week 5 picks part 2
Well a garbage touchdown with 5 minutes left in the game kept us from starting the week on a good foot. It has been a tricky year so far on Thursday night. Here are the rest of this weeks picks.
Virginia -27.5 vs Kent State
Virginia has proven week in and week out that it can play with the big boys this year. After a close loss to UCLA and back to back wins, including an upset of Louisville, Virginia ran out of luck at BYU last week, but even that should've been a win as they led at halftime and out gained BYU. Kent State is not good this year with losses to Ohio, Southern Alabama and a blow out loss in week 3 on the road at Ohio State.
Temple -6 @ UConn
The lack of ability to move the ball on offense was on full display last week for UConn against USF, but that is a trend not an outlier. Last year Temple blew a 21 point lead to lose 28-21, but this UConn offense doesn't have any capability like last year. Temple goes on the road and takes care of business.
Rutgers -11.5 vs Tulane
Tulane is not good, and Rutgers has made believers out of us. The only game that Tulane was really competitive in this year was against SE Louisiana, which they won. This is the 2nd of back to back road games for the green wave. Rutgers returns home after an upset win over Navy on the road last week. While you could worry that Rutgers could get caught looking ahead to Michigan next week, I don't think that will be a problem as the Scarlet Knights should take advantage of a porous run defense of Tulane.
Kentucky -17 vs Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is a team to bet against each week, and with this being the first road game of the season I see no reason to lay heavy chalk against them this week. Kentucky is much improved, and can score in bunches. Vanderbilt is coming off a tough home loss against South Carolina, which was the toughest team they have played this year. With 31 freshmen playing for Vanderbilt this year, and it being there first game on the road, we continue to fade Vandy.
Notre Dame -9 neutral field vs Syracuse
The Syracuse offense relies heavy on the run, but Notre Dames strength on defense is stopping the run. The ND offense looks completely different this year with the return of Golson, who has 11 total touchdowns and 0 turnovers. Last week Syracuse suffered a horrible loss at home to Maryland, even though the had a 220 total yard advantage, it was 2 extra turnovers that did them in. Notre Dame travels extremely well, especially to the east coast, and are on a current 10-1 mark on regular season neutral site games. Notre Dame is also winning it's games by a 26 ppg average, although it was against inferior opponents who have a combined 4-7 record. In the end though, the Irish ability to stop the run will determine this outcome, and I don't expect the offense to falter.
Arkansas +9 neutral field Texas A&M
Normally we are backers of the Texas A&M team and the unstoppable offense. However, this week we need to go with the other unstoppable offense in Arkansas run game. This will be the best offense that Texas A&M has faced all season, and they did allow 240 rushing yards to Rice. In the end look for this one to come down to the wire, as we see which offense can outlast the other.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M over 71 points
Speaking of Arkansas and Texas A&M, while locking in the Arkansas plus the points, take the over in this game too. As we just discussed, these teams have dominating offenses, and I don't expect there to be lack of scoring in this game. The points total is high, but a score of 42-35 is a cover, and totally capable of happening as last year the score was 45-33.
Washington +8 vs Stanford
Last week Washington got caught in the first half looking ahead to Stanford and trailed Georgia State at home 14-0 at halftime. The 2nd half was a different story as the Huskies took over and scored 45 straight unanswered to win 45-14. This is the first road game for Stanford, and while they haven't had any problems winning at home against non-conference foes, when they battled USC, it was a different story. They do come in with the number 1 defense in the country in yards allowed and points scored, but Washington isn't lacking for offense either. Look for Washington to keep it close to the end.
Georgia -17 vs Tennessee
I imagine this game will play out similar to the Tennessee @ Oklahoma game. That was the first road game for this young Tennessee team, and they played tough, but it wasn't close. This is the first road conference game for this young team, and while they'll benefit from having a bye last week, I don't expect it will sway the outcome of this game. Georgia bounced back well from the upset loss @ South Carolina 2 weeks ago with a 66-0 win over Troy. The run game for Georgia is dominating, and allows Mason to get more comfortable in the pocket. In the end though, the home crowd will be to much for the young Tennessee team, and Georgia runs away with it.
Duke +7 at Miami (FL)
Duke is playing solid football, and have a bye on deck, so they will be coming out guns blazing in the game. Miami has played well at home, but against inferior opponents, while facing stiffer competition on the road hasn't gone so well for this team. Duke is still trying to earn respect and will use this game as a spring board to get that respect. Look for this one to stay closer than the experts think.
Louisiana-Monroe -14 vs Troy
Troy is in the second game of back to back that saw them get destroyed against Georgia 66-0. ULM is coming off a bye and is fully fresh. Troy enters with the #122 ranked rush defense and the #120 pass efficiency defense. ULM has won the last 3 games between these 2 teams at home, and nothing I've seen leads me to believe that it will be different, as Troy defense is very similar to Idaho, and ULM put 38 up on Idaho. Troy is also banged up after the Georgia game, and I expect eager to get to their bye next week.
Nebraska -21 vs Illinois
Here is what you need to know. Illinois has the 90th ranked rush defense allowing 172 yards per game. Nebraska running back Abdullah has already rushed for 200+ yards twice the season, and this will be the 3rd time. Playing at home, Illinois barely beat Youngstown state, Western Kentucky and were losing last week 21-6 to Texas state before rallying for a 42-35 win. The one road game this year they played was a 44-19 blow out loss to Washington. While some might be worried that Nebraska could get caught looking ahead to Michigan State next week, I believe the wake up call that McNeese State gave them in week 2 will keep them grounded and focused on the game at hand. Look for Abdullah to lead the way in another blowout win.
That enough games for you to choose from? Good luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
Virginia -27.5 vs Kent State
Virginia has proven week in and week out that it can play with the big boys this year. After a close loss to UCLA and back to back wins, including an upset of Louisville, Virginia ran out of luck at BYU last week, but even that should've been a win as they led at halftime and out gained BYU. Kent State is not good this year with losses to Ohio, Southern Alabama and a blow out loss in week 3 on the road at Ohio State.
Temple -6 @ UConn
The lack of ability to move the ball on offense was on full display last week for UConn against USF, but that is a trend not an outlier. Last year Temple blew a 21 point lead to lose 28-21, but this UConn offense doesn't have any capability like last year. Temple goes on the road and takes care of business.
Rutgers -11.5 vs Tulane
Tulane is not good, and Rutgers has made believers out of us. The only game that Tulane was really competitive in this year was against SE Louisiana, which they won. This is the 2nd of back to back road games for the green wave. Rutgers returns home after an upset win over Navy on the road last week. While you could worry that Rutgers could get caught looking ahead to Michigan next week, I don't think that will be a problem as the Scarlet Knights should take advantage of a porous run defense of Tulane.
Kentucky -17 vs Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is a team to bet against each week, and with this being the first road game of the season I see no reason to lay heavy chalk against them this week. Kentucky is much improved, and can score in bunches. Vanderbilt is coming off a tough home loss against South Carolina, which was the toughest team they have played this year. With 31 freshmen playing for Vanderbilt this year, and it being there first game on the road, we continue to fade Vandy.
Notre Dame -9 neutral field vs Syracuse
The Syracuse offense relies heavy on the run, but Notre Dames strength on defense is stopping the run. The ND offense looks completely different this year with the return of Golson, who has 11 total touchdowns and 0 turnovers. Last week Syracuse suffered a horrible loss at home to Maryland, even though the had a 220 total yard advantage, it was 2 extra turnovers that did them in. Notre Dame travels extremely well, especially to the east coast, and are on a current 10-1 mark on regular season neutral site games. Notre Dame is also winning it's games by a 26 ppg average, although it was against inferior opponents who have a combined 4-7 record. In the end though, the Irish ability to stop the run will determine this outcome, and I don't expect the offense to falter.
Arkansas +9 neutral field Texas A&M
Normally we are backers of the Texas A&M team and the unstoppable offense. However, this week we need to go with the other unstoppable offense in Arkansas run game. This will be the best offense that Texas A&M has faced all season, and they did allow 240 rushing yards to Rice. In the end look for this one to come down to the wire, as we see which offense can outlast the other.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M over 71 points
Speaking of Arkansas and Texas A&M, while locking in the Arkansas plus the points, take the over in this game too. As we just discussed, these teams have dominating offenses, and I don't expect there to be lack of scoring in this game. The points total is high, but a score of 42-35 is a cover, and totally capable of happening as last year the score was 45-33.
Washington +8 vs Stanford
Last week Washington got caught in the first half looking ahead to Stanford and trailed Georgia State at home 14-0 at halftime. The 2nd half was a different story as the Huskies took over and scored 45 straight unanswered to win 45-14. This is the first road game for Stanford, and while they haven't had any problems winning at home against non-conference foes, when they battled USC, it was a different story. They do come in with the number 1 defense in the country in yards allowed and points scored, but Washington isn't lacking for offense either. Look for Washington to keep it close to the end.
Georgia -17 vs Tennessee
I imagine this game will play out similar to the Tennessee @ Oklahoma game. That was the first road game for this young Tennessee team, and they played tough, but it wasn't close. This is the first road conference game for this young team, and while they'll benefit from having a bye last week, I don't expect it will sway the outcome of this game. Georgia bounced back well from the upset loss @ South Carolina 2 weeks ago with a 66-0 win over Troy. The run game for Georgia is dominating, and allows Mason to get more comfortable in the pocket. In the end though, the home crowd will be to much for the young Tennessee team, and Georgia runs away with it.
Duke +7 at Miami (FL)
Duke is playing solid football, and have a bye on deck, so they will be coming out guns blazing in the game. Miami has played well at home, but against inferior opponents, while facing stiffer competition on the road hasn't gone so well for this team. Duke is still trying to earn respect and will use this game as a spring board to get that respect. Look for this one to stay closer than the experts think.
Louisiana-Monroe -14 vs Troy
Troy is in the second game of back to back that saw them get destroyed against Georgia 66-0. ULM is coming off a bye and is fully fresh. Troy enters with the #122 ranked rush defense and the #120 pass efficiency defense. ULM has won the last 3 games between these 2 teams at home, and nothing I've seen leads me to believe that it will be different, as Troy defense is very similar to Idaho, and ULM put 38 up on Idaho. Troy is also banged up after the Georgia game, and I expect eager to get to their bye next week.
Nebraska -21 vs Illinois
Here is what you need to know. Illinois has the 90th ranked rush defense allowing 172 yards per game. Nebraska running back Abdullah has already rushed for 200+ yards twice the season, and this will be the 3rd time. Playing at home, Illinois barely beat Youngstown state, Western Kentucky and were losing last week 21-6 to Texas state before rallying for a 42-35 win. The one road game this year they played was a 44-19 blow out loss to Washington. While some might be worried that Nebraska could get caught looking ahead to Michigan State next week, I believe the wake up call that McNeese State gave them in week 2 will keep them grounded and focused on the game at hand. Look for Abdullah to lead the way in another blowout win.
That enough games for you to choose from? Good luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
college football week 5 game picks part 1
Last week was not a good week, as I covered in the week 4 recap. However, this is a new week, we're all picked back up, shoulders are dusted off and we're ready to go. Starting out this week is one game on Thursday night. Look for another post on Friday for the weekend action.
Oklahoma State -14 vs Texas Tech
Texas Tech can't stop the run on defense, and Arkansas exploited that 2 weeks ago, before TT had the bye last week. After the Arkansas game the TT defensive coordinator resigned. Oklahoma State is running the ball on an average of 43 times per game, and with the porous rush D of TT, look for them to put up some big rushing stats. In recent against the spread results TT is 0-4 last 4 on the road, 0-5 last 5 conference games and 1-8 in their last 9 overall. OKSU is 12-3 in last 15 at home and 6-1 in last 7 conference games. In the series TT is 0-4 in last 4 at OKSU, TT is 0-5 in last 5 meetings overall, and the favorite is 5-1 in last 6 meetings. All signs point to all trends continuing this year.
Good luck Thursday night, and check back Friday for the weekend games. Oh and follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominak
Oklahoma State -14 vs Texas Tech
Texas Tech can't stop the run on defense, and Arkansas exploited that 2 weeks ago, before TT had the bye last week. After the Arkansas game the TT defensive coordinator resigned. Oklahoma State is running the ball on an average of 43 times per game, and with the porous rush D of TT, look for them to put up some big rushing stats. In recent against the spread results TT is 0-4 last 4 on the road, 0-5 last 5 conference games and 1-8 in their last 9 overall. OKSU is 12-3 in last 15 at home and 6-1 in last 7 conference games. In the series TT is 0-4 in last 4 at OKSU, TT is 0-5 in last 5 meetings overall, and the favorite is 5-1 in last 6 meetings. All signs point to all trends continuing this year.
Good luck Thursday night, and check back Friday for the weekend games. Oh and follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominak
Thursday, September 18, 2014
college football week 4 best bets
After having back to back .500 weeks, we decided to keep it to an odd number of games this week to avoid that happening again. We really hate getting juiced, it’s all about winning and losing. Anyways, here are our 13 best bets for week 4 of college football.
Virginia Tech -8 vs Georgia Tech
Last week we recommended VT at home vs East Carolina, thinking that they’d be flying high at home with a loud crowd backing them after the upset at Ohio State. Well we were wrong. This week is a revenge/statement week. Last week was a wake up call for VT. VT had trouble getting anything going on offense until the 4Q. Georgia Tech is coming off a near disaster of its own at home against Georgia Southern, needing a last second touchdown to get the win after blowing an early 35-10 lead. VT are 6-1 in this series, and I have no reason to go against that, VT wins big.
Pittsburgh -7 home vs Iowa
Pittsburgh was another recommendation last week that came up short. They got off to a slow start putting themselves in an early 16-0 deficit before mounting the come back and winning 45-25, missing the cover by a touchdown. This is Iowa’s first road game of the season, while Pittsburgh is returning home after back to back road games. Pittsburgh has been dominate in the run game this year and have a 1,033 to 232 rush yard advantage through 3 games. Iowa hasn’t allowed many rushing yards this year limiting opponents to just 66 rushing yards a game, but I think the Pittsburgh offensive line changes that this week and they run all over Iowa.
Duke -17 vs Tulane
Last week we were backers of Duke, and we told you of all there wonderful stats ATS, well they covered big, and improved on those stats, so we’re not going to cover those again here. Tulane won for the first time last week at home against Southeast Louisiana in a pick em game by Vegas. Tulane played on the road in week 1, and lost by 7 to Tulsa as a 4.5 point dog. Duke is just to dominate on offense, including a break out performance last week by Wilson who ran for a school record of 245 yards. Duke keeps it home streak going with another big win.
North Carolina +3 at East Carolina
Last week East Carolina went into Blacksburg and pulled off the upset in a trap game for Virginia Tech. Like VT last week, this is a trap game for ECU, coming home after a big road upset, and they get to face North Carolina, oh and be favored in the game. NCU is 6-2 in this series, and I fully expect that trend to continue this year, the fact that you’re getting points is icing on the cake, and a bit of a security blanket. NCU is also coming off a buy, and the 2 campuses are only 110 miles apart, so I feel that NCU will have plenty of support in the stands.
Texas A&M -33.5 at SMU
Last week we were supporters of Texas A&M and due to a lackluster start we were 1 score away from covering. This week they go up against a worse team in SMU, whose HC recently resigned. In this series TA&M is 4-0 with an average of 51-10. So far this year SMU lost by 45 to Baylor and 37 points to North Texas. Granted both of those games were on the road, but this is a very good TA&M team, and will want to make a statement after a not so great performance at home. After the game last week, Sumlin said, “Guys weren’t very happy with how they played tonight. In the locker room our guys were ho hum and pretty hard on themselves…..and that’s good.” That’s how his players felt after a 25 point win. Look for them to roll on the road.
Navy -6.5 vs Rutgers
Rutgers is coming off a depressing loss at home against Penn State, there new ‘rival’ in the Big Ten. Rutgers was winning late, but came up short as Penn State went home with the win. Navy is returning home after back to back road wins where they dominated the line of scrimmage. Rutgers offense has been stagnate all year, and the defense gave up 269 rushing yards to Howard. Howard! And that was at home. In this series the home team is 5-2 ATS, and we have no reason to go against that trend this year. Navy runs over Rutgers.
Missouri -13.5 vs Indiana
Last week we were backers of Indiana. We were under the impression that Indiana State was much improved from last season and that is why the game with them was so close. It appears we might have been wrong. Last week Indiana couldn’t stop BGSU, and when they were driving with a chance to put the game away and go up 10 they fumbled on the 12. BGSU went on to score a touchdown on the next drive and Indiana was never able to regain the momentum. Missouri on the other hand keeps exceeding everyones expectations each week. Last year Missouri went into Indiana and won 45-28. On top of that Indiana is 1-6 in last 7 road games, and are only 2-6-1 in last 9 overall. Meanwhile Missouri is 4-1 in last 5 home games and 6-1-1 in last 8 non-conference. Look for Missouri to keep exceeding expectations this week.
Washington -34.5 vs Georgia State
In our recap of week 3 we talked about finding teams that you can go against each week is just as valuable as finding teams you can back week to week. Georgia State is a team that you should go against each week. We had Georgia State in our final round of picks to bet against last week, but we couldn’t convince ourselves to back Air Force on the road by double digits. We were right with that pick, but this is a week to go against Georgia State. It’s the first road game of the year for them, and they have proven that they can’t stop anybody on defense at home, so we don’t believe they will drastically be able to stop someone on the road for the first time all season. Washington shook off 2 bad games to start the season to blow out Illinois last week at home. Washington starting QB was suspended for week 1 vs Hawaii, but since his return they have averaged 52 points per game and 500 yards per game, the offense continues to roll this week and the Huskies win BIG!
LSU -9.5 vs Mississippi State
LSU is 13-3 in last 16 and the favorite is 4-0 in last 4. LSU posted back to back shutouts the past 2 weeks, and the defense hasn’t allowed a point for 31 straight possessions. Mississippi State’s defense is allowing almost 400 yards of offense per game this year, and have yet to face a defense as good as LSU. Les Miles teams at home at night are nearly unstoppable, and we don’t expect anything different in this game.
Arkansas -13.5 vs Northern Illinois
Last week Arkansas went on the road to Texas Tech and pulled out a huge 21 point victory, and has the best backfield in the SEC. Arkansas HC is 3-0 against Northern Illinois during his time at Wisconsin, and this Arkansas team is built similar to those Wisconsin teams. Arkansas will over power Northern Illinois in this game and control the line of scrimmage on both sides. Arkansas runs all over them
South Carolina -21.5 at Vanderbilt
Remember earlier when we talked about the week 2 recap and finding teams to go against, well Vanderbilt is the other team we have selected to go against, but didn’t have faith in UMass last week. We were wrong in that instance, and are regretting it. Vanderbilt has proven that it is horrible. The lines were incorrect in all 3 games they’ve played this week. Even with an over adjusted line this isn’t enough points for Vanderbilt at home. Go against Vanderbilt this week and every week for the rest of the season.
New Mexico -3.5 at New Mexico State
The visitor has won 4 of the last 6 in this meeting. Last year New Mexico won 66-17. New Mexico is coming off a bye, while NMSU is coming home after back to back road games. New Mexico is 6-3-1 in last 10 in this series and 3-0-1 in last 4 on the road. These 2 teams are competing for the worst rushing defense in FBS, but New Mexico can actually run the ball, averaging 300 yards per game. They will use that to there advantage and run away with the victory and the cover.
Boise State -17 Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana is 2-6 in last 8 road games and 2-7 overall ATS. This is also the second of back to back road trips for Louisiana after getting destroyed my Mississippi last week. This is a much harder road trip with the long distance out west and playing in the elevation. Boise State have won 28 straight non-conference home games. Louisiana is allowing 544 yards per game against FBS opponents this year. Look for Boise State to keep that home streak going, and to take advantage of the worst defense in college.
Good luck this week and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
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