Sunday, October 19, 2014

NFL week 7 Arizona at Oakland

Arizona -4 at Oakland
This is my lock of the week pick.  Arizona is one of the strongest teams in the NFL this year, and that’s been with a revolving door at QB.  Palmer is back for a second week in a row, and this isn’t a division opponent so don’t look for the Raiders to be up for it.  The Cardinals defense is amazing this year. 

Not only do 4 of my 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Cardinals in this game, but it also has 3 key numbers, including on the 1 system that disagrees and puts value on the Raiders.  I have the Cardinals as getting 3 points of value in my game expectations systems, and that number has been 7-4 so far this season.  My vegas line system has the Cardinals getting 2.5 points of value and that number so far this year is 4-3.  Finally, the one that drove home the selection for me, the outlier of the 5 systems, my 13/14 system has the Raiders getting 1 point of value, but that number is only 1-5 in the 6 times it’s come up, and the home team fails to cover by -7.5 points.  Yes, you read that right, in the 6 times the home underdog has had value of 1 point, they fail to cover by more than a touchdown.  Arizona wins BIG.


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