NFL week 8 Thursday night Football San Diego at Denver

Okay, I'm a little late getting this posted so I'm going to get right to it.  Take San Diego and the points.  Currently you can get San Diego +9.5 at even money, and I don't think you can get better value than that.

In the past 5 years when divisional opponents play on a Thursday night and the spread is 7 points or greater, the underdog is 7-2 ATS.

Since coming to Denver, Peyton Manning is only 4-6 ATS versus AFC west opponents when favored by 7 points or more.  Further that he is just 2-3 since last season.

San Diego is 7-0-4 ATS in last 11 in Denver.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in last 6 meetings between these 2 teams.

Road team is 12-4-5 ATS in the last 21 games.

There you have it, value and situation sit with the underdog Chargers.

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NFL week 7 Arizona at Oakland

Arizona -4 at Oakland

This is my lock of the week pick.  Arizona is one of the strongest teams in the NFL this year, and that’s been with a revolving door at QB.  Palmer is back for a second week in a row, and this isn’t a division opponent so don’t look for the Raiders to be up for it.  The Cardinals defense is amazing this year. 

Not only do 4 of my 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Cardinals in this game, but it also has 3 key numbers, including on the 1 system that disagrees and puts value on the Raiders.  I have the Cardinals as getting 3 points of value in my game expectations systems, and that number has been 7-4 so far this season.  My vegas line system has the Cardinals getting 2.5 points of value and that number so far this year is 4-3.  Finally, the one that drove home the selection for me, the outlier of the 5 systems, my 13/14 system has the Raiders getting 1 point of value, but that number is only 1-5 in the 6 times it’s come up, and the home team fails to cover by -7.5 points.  Yes, you read that right, in the 6 times the home underdog has had value of 1 point, they fail to cover by more than a touchdown.  Arizona wins BIG.

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NFL week 7 Atlanta at Baltimore

Atlanta +7 at Baltimore

Yes, Atlanta lost at home to the Bears last week and they have put up back to back stink shows.  Yes, the Ravens dominated the Bucs last week at home.  But each week in the NFL is like a new life, you never know what is going to happen.  4 of my 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Falcons in this game.  Also, 3 of those 4 systems in agreement are on key numbers for the Falcons.

The most convincing for me of the key numbers is the result from my game expectations system.  That system shows the Falcons as having 1 point of value, and for all games this year with 1 point of value they have yet to lose ATS with a record of 6-0.  Look for that trend to continue here this week.

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NFL week 7 Cleveland at Jacksonville

Cleveland -6 at Jacksonville

Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL.  No, I’m not saying that because of record.  I’m saying it because ever ratings system that I’ve seen has the Jaguars on the bottom, and it’s not even close.  Cleveland is much improved this year, and they keep getting better each week.  They needed a monster come from behind at half time victory to get over the Titans, but that just shows this team doesn’t stop. 

Only 3 of my 5 systems agree on the value with the Browns, but the 2 systems that say the value is on the Jaguars are on key numbers for the Browns.  For example, my 13/14 system says that the Jaguars have 3 points of value in this game, but when I look at the past results of home underdogs with 3 points value in my 13/14 summary I see they are only 3-5 against the spread, and miss the cover by an average of -2.5 points.  Cleveland rolls on the road again.

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NFL Week 7 Miami at Chicago

Chicago -3 vs Miami

This is an intriguing matchup.  Miami is coming off a tough home loss to Green Bay, who won in the final seconds.  Chicago is coming off a road win at Atlanta.  The dolphins are 1-1 on the road so far this year, and the Bears are somehow 0-2 at home.  Obviously being win less at home is something the Bears will want to change.  

All 5 systems that I maintain show value on the Bears side.  When all 5 systems agree, the results have been split so far this year, but 2 of the systems fall on key system numbers, that have generated excellent results, and 2 more that are nearly split 50/50.  Both teams have struggled with turnovers this year.  Look for Cutler to have a good day, and the Bears to get their first home win of the season.

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college football week 8 ATS best bets part 1

Not a lot of time, getting right to it.  Here are the games I like up until the 4 pm kick off times

Tulsa +2 vs USF
Ignore the records, and the stats.  A home team getting points against a very poor team?  I will take it

Florida Atlantic +4.5 vs Western Kentucky
Same example as above, both teams have 2 wins, and we're getting points at home.  Easy play

Virginia +3.5 @ Duke
Virginia is coming in off a bye, and has one of the best defenses in the nation.  Duke survived on the road last week against Georgia Tech, but that was mostly from GT shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly.  Duke benefited from 3 turnovers and 2 missed FG by GT.  Virginia is better and more disciplined than GT, and coming in rested.  Throw some points on top of it and that's the recipe of success.

Clemson -5 @ Boston College
Yes BC is improved this year, and yes they play better at home, but this Clemson team will just be to much for them to handle.  Clemson has more fire power on offense than any team BC has faced this year.  Look for them to continue putting up big points on the road.

Arkansas +3.5 vs Georgia
These two teams are built extremely similar with power runs and power defenses.  Arkansas is better than people give them credit for, and last week Georgia wanted to prove that they didn't need Gurley, so it was a statement game.  This is the 2nd week in a row on the road for Georgia, and they are down to their 4th running back on the year.  Look for Arkansas to squeak out the win.

TCU -8.5 vs Oklahoma State
This line isn't available anymore, but it's the line I locked in 2 days ago so that's what I'm posting.  I'd still play TCU at -10.  This line has steamed up from the open of -8.  The TCU offense is way to good to be stopped, and the defense is better than most think.  Look for them to defend their home turf, and make a statement with this game.

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NFL Thursday night football

In this weeks Thursday night match up we have the stumbling New York Jets traveling to the New England Patriots in this divisional rivalry game.  The Patriots are currently favored by -10 points, which seems to be mostly driven by the past 2 weeks success they have had, and the Jets inability to do anything with the ball on offense.

I have the Patriots getting value in 3 of my 5 systems, and the other 2 systems agreeing with the line of Patriots -10.

In looking at the 2014 season stats we see that the 2 teams are pretty balanced here with the Jets averaging 27 attempts for 121 yards per game while the Patriots are averaging 30 attempts for 110 yards.  While the Jets have the higher YPC average, the slight edge here goes to the Patriots as they average more attempts and allows them to control the game a little more.

In the passing game, the Patriots really show their efficiency over the Jets.  The Jets are throwing the ball 35 times for 182 yards per game.  The Patriots are throwing it 36 times for 239 yards per game.  Big edge to the Patriots here as the Jets defense is also allowing 235 yards per game in the air.

Next we need to look at turnovers.  The Jets are averaging 0.8 fumbles and 1.2 interceptions per game, while the Patriots defense is averaging 1.2 fumble recoveries and 1.2 interceptions per game.  Knowing these tidbits it's safe to assume that the Jets will have at least 1 fumble and 1 interception in this game.  On the other side the Patriots offense is averaging 0.5 fumbles per game and only 0.3 interceptions per game, while the Jets are taking away .3 fumbles and .2 interceptions per game.  If New England has any turnovers in this game it will be a fumble, so the Patriots get the turnover advantage.

I don't expect either team to miss any field goals in this game, as both teams kicking game has been solid all year.

So the Patriots get the slight edge in rushing, and the definitive edge in passing and turnovers.  Knowing this information, I tend to agree with my systems that the Patriots are the right side to be on.  However, I don't see enough value on this game so I'm passing.  If you need some action Thursday night take the Patriots at home, but keep it small, as that is a lot of chalk to cover against a divisional foe.

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