As covered in the NFL recap, since the disastrous 0-4 week 1 the best bets picks posted have been doing well, getting us back to 9-8 on the season, YAY!! We laid a dud on Thursday night football, and I even spoke to a buddy about how Cousins performed too well against the Eagles last week and a lot of pressure would be on him to play that way ever week. Cousins got down, then he pressed and forced passes and threw interceptions. Even though all 5 systems agreed on Washington, I had a hard time pulling the trigger, regretfully I did anyways, and now the record is at 9-9. That was short lived.
Here are the rest of the games for this weekend that stand out.
Chicago +1.5 vs Green Bay
As we learned last week, wait for the line to move before grabbing the points. Green Bay is a public team, and will get a lot of money from the public to back them. That will move the line and then we get even better value with the Bears. Four of the five systems used all agree that the value in this game is with Chicago, and actually all but 1 of those 4 think they should be favored (that is due to the Bears being at home and being adjusted for home field, on a neutral field Green Bay would be favored slightly), and 1 thinks they should be 0.5 point underdog. This will probably move to +2 or maybe even +2.5 and that's when we strike, but realistically any points here with the home team is a good play.
Philadelphia +5 @ San Francisco
The Eagles are playing well despite slow starts to all 3 games so far this season needing to come from behind to win in all 3. San Francisco is a disaster in disguise, needed 2 defensive touchdowns against the Cowboys to get their only win this season. The 49ers have been turnover prone, and throwing the ball to much. They dominated last year utilizing the run. Hopefully the late afternoon start means the Eagles offense shows up for 4 quarters, and if it does the 49ers could be in a lot of trouble, and Jim Harbaugh will be thinking about taking over for Brady Hoke at Michigan next year. Eagles pull the upset!
Dallas +3 vs New Orleans
Just like Chicago we are going to be patient and let this line move a little bit hoping to get more value with this play. 4 of the 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Cowboys for this game, and that they should only be a 1 point underdog at the most. The Cowboys only loss this year was to San Francisco, as discussed above. Sure the defense hasn't been stellar, but they have been better than what people think. New Orleans finally got a win last week, but that was against Minnesota without AP and at home. New Orleans is 0-2 on the road this year, and both games have been settled by a field goal or less. Until NO starts to win big on the road, we aren't laying any chalk with them, as the allegedly improved defense continues to give up plays and points. Be patient and let the line move, as I'm sure 75% of the public will be on the Saints.
NY Jets +2 vs Detroit
This has an opportunity to get to +3, and so take a patient approach and see if you get a better line. This is another game where the public is all over the Lions and while occasionally the public get's it right, the majority of the time they are wrong. Detroit is coming off a big win against Green Bay, but it was because of the defense that they won the game and nothing to do with the offense. The Jets defense is way better than the Packers, and the Lion have to go on the road to play this game, so I expect them to struggle slightly. Plus think about it this way, each week there are a few games that you look and are like, whoa I can get __________ -2, I'm in. It looks to good to be true to be backing the Lions this week. Add in the fact that all 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Jets, and that the 2 most accurate of the 5 so far this season call for them to be favorites, and I'm backing the J-E-T-S, Jets!, Jets!, Jets!
Take those 4, add in Thursday night and you get 5 games for the week. Two other games that the systems liked that I couldn't pull the trigger on were Carolina +3.5 (Baltimore has great run defense, Carolina has struggled to run) and Miami -3.5 (who knows what Miami team will show up in London). We know we're starting 0-1 this week do to the flop of Thursday, but we will be ending 4-1. Good luck this weekend, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
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