After having back to back .500 weeks, we decided to keep it to an odd number of games this week to avoid that happening again. We really hate getting juiced, it’s all about winning and losing. Anyways, here are our 13 best bets for week 4 of college football.
Virginia Tech -8 vs Georgia Tech
Last week we recommended VT at home vs East Carolina, thinking that they’d be flying high at home with a loud crowd backing them after the upset at Ohio State. Well we were wrong. This week is a revenge/statement week. Last week was a wake up call for VT. VT had trouble getting anything going on offense until the 4Q. Georgia Tech is coming off a near disaster of its own at home against Georgia Southern, needing a last second touchdown to get the win after blowing an early 35-10 lead. VT are 6-1 in this series, and I have no reason to go against that, VT wins big.
Pittsburgh -7 home vs Iowa
Pittsburgh was another recommendation last week that came up short. They got off to a slow start putting themselves in an early 16-0 deficit before mounting the come back and winning 45-25, missing the cover by a touchdown. This is Iowa’s first road game of the season, while Pittsburgh is returning home after back to back road games. Pittsburgh has been dominate in the run game this year and have a 1,033 to 232 rush yard advantage through 3 games. Iowa hasn’t allowed many rushing yards this year limiting opponents to just 66 rushing yards a game, but I think the Pittsburgh offensive line changes that this week and they run all over Iowa.
Duke -17 vs Tulane
Last week we were backers of Duke, and we told you of all there wonderful stats ATS, well they covered big, and improved on those stats, so we’re not going to cover those again here. Tulane won for the first time last week at home against Southeast Louisiana in a pick em game by Vegas. Tulane played on the road in week 1, and lost by 7 to Tulsa as a 4.5 point dog. Duke is just to dominate on offense, including a break out performance last week by Wilson who ran for a school record of 245 yards. Duke keeps it home streak going with another big win.
North Carolina +3 at East Carolina
Last week East Carolina went into Blacksburg and pulled off the upset in a trap game for Virginia Tech. Like VT last week, this is a trap game for ECU, coming home after a big road upset, and they get to face North Carolina, oh and be favored in the game. NCU is 6-2 in this series, and I fully expect that trend to continue this year, the fact that you’re getting points is icing on the cake, and a bit of a security blanket. NCU is also coming off a buy, and the 2 campuses are only 110 miles apart, so I feel that NCU will have plenty of support in the stands.
Texas A&M -33.5 at SMU
Last week we were supporters of Texas A&M and due to a lackluster start we were 1 score away from covering. This week they go up against a worse team in SMU, whose HC recently resigned. In this series TA&M is 4-0 with an average of 51-10. So far this year SMU lost by 45 to Baylor and 37 points to North Texas. Granted both of those games were on the road, but this is a very good TA&M team, and will want to make a statement after a not so great performance at home. After the game last week, Sumlin said, “Guys weren’t very happy with how they played tonight. In the locker room our guys were ho hum and pretty hard on themselves…..and that’s good.” That’s how his players felt after a 25 point win. Look for them to roll on the road.
Navy -6.5 vs Rutgers
Rutgers is coming off a depressing loss at home against Penn State, there new ‘rival’ in the Big Ten. Rutgers was winning late, but came up short as Penn State went home with the win. Navy is returning home after back to back road wins where they dominated the line of scrimmage. Rutgers offense has been stagnate all year, and the defense gave up 269 rushing yards to Howard. Howard! And that was at home. In this series the home team is 5-2 ATS, and we have no reason to go against that trend this year. Navy runs over Rutgers.
Missouri -13.5 vs Indiana
Last week we were backers of Indiana. We were under the impression that Indiana State was much improved from last season and that is why the game with them was so close. It appears we might have been wrong. Last week Indiana couldn’t stop BGSU, and when they were driving with a chance to put the game away and go up 10 they fumbled on the 12. BGSU went on to score a touchdown on the next drive and Indiana was never able to regain the momentum. Missouri on the other hand keeps exceeding everyones expectations each week. Last year Missouri went into Indiana and won 45-28. On top of that Indiana is 1-6 in last 7 road games, and are only 2-6-1 in last 9 overall. Meanwhile Missouri is 4-1 in last 5 home games and 6-1-1 in last 8 non-conference. Look for Missouri to keep exceeding expectations this week.
Washington -34.5 vs Georgia State
In our recap of week 3 we talked about finding teams that you can go against each week is just as valuable as finding teams you can back week to week. Georgia State is a team that you should go against each week. We had Georgia State in our final round of picks to bet against last week, but we couldn’t convince ourselves to back Air Force on the road by double digits. We were right with that pick, but this is a week to go against Georgia State. It’s the first road game of the year for them, and they have proven that they can’t stop anybody on defense at home, so we don’t believe they will drastically be able to stop someone on the road for the first time all season. Washington shook off 2 bad games to start the season to blow out Illinois last week at home. Washington starting QB was suspended for week 1 vs Hawaii, but since his return they have averaged 52 points per game and 500 yards per game, the offense continues to roll this week and the Huskies win BIG!
LSU -9.5 vs Mississippi State
LSU is 13-3 in last 16 and the favorite is 4-0 in last 4. LSU posted back to back shutouts the past 2 weeks, and the defense hasn’t allowed a point for 31 straight possessions. Mississippi State’s defense is allowing almost 400 yards of offense per game this year, and have yet to face a defense as good as LSU. Les Miles teams at home at night are nearly unstoppable, and we don’t expect anything different in this game.
Arkansas -13.5 vs Northern Illinois
Last week Arkansas went on the road to Texas Tech and pulled out a huge 21 point victory, and has the best backfield in the SEC. Arkansas HC is 3-0 against Northern Illinois during his time at Wisconsin, and this Arkansas team is built similar to those Wisconsin teams. Arkansas will over power Northern Illinois in this game and control the line of scrimmage on both sides. Arkansas runs all over them
South Carolina -21.5 at Vanderbilt
Remember earlier when we talked about the week 2 recap and finding teams to go against, well Vanderbilt is the other team we have selected to go against, but didn’t have faith in UMass last week. We were wrong in that instance, and are regretting it. Vanderbilt has proven that it is horrible. The lines were incorrect in all 3 games they’ve played this week. Even with an over adjusted line this isn’t enough points for Vanderbilt at home. Go against Vanderbilt this week and every week for the rest of the season.
New Mexico -3.5 at New Mexico State
The visitor has won 4 of the last 6 in this meeting. Last year New Mexico won 66-17. New Mexico is coming off a bye, while NMSU is coming home after back to back road games. New Mexico is 6-3-1 in last 10 in this series and 3-0-1 in last 4 on the road. These 2 teams are competing for the worst rushing defense in FBS, but New Mexico can actually run the ball, averaging 300 yards per game. They will use that to there advantage and run away with the victory and the cover.
Boise State -17 Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana is 2-6 in last 8 road games and 2-7 overall ATS. This is also the second of back to back road trips for Louisiana after getting destroyed my Mississippi last week. This is a much harder road trip with the long distance out west and playing in the elevation. Boise State have won 28 straight non-conference home games. Louisiana is allowing 544 yards per game against FBS opponents this year. Look for Boise State to keep that home streak going, and to take advantage of the worst defense in college.
Good luck this week and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
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