Last week our picks went 4-2 ATS, giving us a 4-6 mark on the season, as we are still digging out of that week 1 0-4 bomb.
Before I get into our week 3 picks I want to provide a
little explanation on what we’re looking for.
We manage 5 different systems, 2 based on power ratings, and 3 based on
score sheets. Last week we had 2 systems
go 8-8 ATS, 2 go 9-7 ATS and the 5th went 10-6 ATS. That last one was extra special because it
was a score sheet based on what we expected each team to do with
running/passing and turnovers/missed field goals. We were pleasantly surprised at how simple it
is to make the correct assumptions once you have a formidable backlog of stats
to help make those decisions. Anyways,
last week we had 5 games where all 5 of our system agreed on who would cover
the spread, and those 5 games went 4-1 ATS.
We had 3 more games where 4 of our 5 systems agreed, and those 3 games
went 2-1 ATS, so of the 8 games that at least 4 of our 5 systems agreed on the
ATS record was 6-2, which would be a phenomenal day.
For week 3 we have 1 game in which all 5 of our systems
agree, and 7 games in which 4 of our 5 systems agree. Below are our picks based on those systems
results.
Atlanta -6.5 vs Tampa Bay
Atlanta struggled on the road last week at Cincinnati, but
that was a game outdoors, and against a better defense than New Orleans. Tampa Bay has a better defense than Atlanta’s,
but they are racking up the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, and are
going on the road for the first time this year after losing 2 games at
home. Atlanta returning home, coming off
a loss and laying less than a touchdown against an inferior opponent is the
type of play we’re looking for. 4 of our
5 systems agree on this game with the lone outlier being the 13/14 score sheet,
which is weighted down by the poor performances Atlanta put forth last year.
Green Bay +1.5 @ Detroit
In one power rating we have GB as a -7.5 favorite, in the
other they are a -1.5 favorite. The game
expectations score sheet (went 10-6 last week) has them as a -7 point
favorite. Finally the 13/14 average
score sheet has Green Bay as a pick em, with a line variance of 2. This score sheet has had a line variance of 2
shows up 10 times since the start of the 2013 season, and has a record of 8-2
ATS, and cover the spread by an average of 6 points per. Green Bay wins on the road.
Denver +5 @ Seattle
Nevermind the super bowl rematch, and that Denver wants revenge
or that Seattle is out to prove the SB wasn’t a fluke. Just don’t think about that stuff. One of our power ratings has Denver as +6,
which is the one system that doesn’t agree with the other 4. The other power rating has Denver as +3,
which is due to Seattle having home field.
That rating system actually has these 2 teams as a pick em right now on
a neutral field. Our 13/14 score sheet
has Denver as a -1 point favorite, with a line variance of 6, which in the 6
occurrences since 2013 is 5-1 with an average cover mark of 3 points per. The 14 and GE score sheets both have this
game graded as pick em.
Carolina -3.5 vs Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is a public team, so you should be able to get
better value with Carolina as the week goes on, but if you want to get them -3
and buy the hook now, I think that is a smart play. One of the power ratings systems has Carolina
as -8.5 point favorite, while the other has them as -4.5 point favorite. The 13/14 score sheet has Carolina as a -5 favorite
and a line variance of 1, which is 12-6 in it’s last 18 and average cover of 3
points per.
San Diego 2.5 @ Buffalo
San Diego should be favored in this game, plain and
simple. Perhaps the early start on the
east coast for a west coast team is in play here, but that didn’t affect
Arizona last week, and I don’t expect it to hurt SD this week. The 2 power ratings systems have the Chargers
as -2.5 and -1.5 point favorites. The GE
score sheet has them as a -5 point favorite
Cleveland 1.5 vs Baltimore
The 1 outlier in all of my systems is a power rating that
says the Browns should be +2 instead of +1.5.
That’s it, 1 outlier over a half a point. Cleveland is good, better than most
expected. Baltimore shook the drama of
Ray Rice off for a 3 hour period to beat Pittsburgh, and have the extra rest,
but they must go to the hostile environment that is Cleveland, which is never
an easy thing to do, but they are no longer escaping from anything, nor are
they facing a team that is going to throw the ball 40+ times a game. Cleveland will pound the ball on the ground,
and that will cause the Ravens problems.
Browns get back to back home wins
Arizona +3 vs San Francisco
Similar to the Cleveland game, I have 1 outlier in my 5 systems,
and it calls for Arizona to be +3.5, so only a 0.5 point difference. The other 4 systems have Arizona rated as a
favorite. They did play well on the east
coast in an early game with a backup QB none the less. San Francisco has a better offense and
defense than the Giants do, but I don’t believe the offense is as good as San
Diego, which Arizona was able to hold to 18 points. The defense leads the way again.
Wait, that’s only 7 games selected, and we had 8 that met
all 4 systems or better. So which team
are we leaving off? Why New Orleans of
course. While it’s tempting to lay 9
points on the Saints at home against Minnesota that just got destroyed at home,
that would be a trap. Peterson is
playing this week, and I don’t think the New Orleans defense will get 4
picks. New Orleans is good at home, but
they just aren’t playing like a championship team yet, and are stuck in shoot
outs. You don’t cover a 9 point spread
in a shoot out, so we’ll sit this game out.
Thanks for checking in this week, and remember to follow me
on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
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