Well a garbage touchdown with 5 minutes left in the game kept us from starting the week on a good foot. It has been a tricky year so far on Thursday night. Here are the rest of this weeks picks.
Virginia -27.5 vs Kent State
Virginia has proven week in and week out that it can play with the big boys this year. After a close loss to UCLA and back to back wins, including an upset of Louisville, Virginia ran out of luck at BYU last week, but even that should've been a win as they led at halftime and out gained BYU. Kent State is not good this year with losses to Ohio, Southern Alabama and a blow out loss in week 3 on the road at Ohio State.
Temple -6 @ UConn
The lack of ability to move the ball on offense was on full display last week for UConn against USF, but that is a trend not an outlier. Last year Temple blew a 21 point lead to lose 28-21, but this UConn offense doesn't have any capability like last year. Temple goes on the road and takes care of business.
Rutgers -11.5 vs Tulane
Tulane is not good, and Rutgers has made believers out of us. The only game that Tulane was really competitive in this year was against SE Louisiana, which they won. This is the 2nd of back to back road games for the green wave. Rutgers returns home after an upset win over Navy on the road last week. While you could worry that Rutgers could get caught looking ahead to Michigan next week, I don't think that will be a problem as the Scarlet Knights should take advantage of a porous run defense of Tulane.
Kentucky -17 vs Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is a team to bet against each week, and with this being the first road game of the season I see no reason to lay heavy chalk against them this week. Kentucky is much improved, and can score in bunches. Vanderbilt is coming off a tough home loss against South Carolina, which was the toughest team they have played this year. With 31 freshmen playing for Vanderbilt this year, and it being there first game on the road, we continue to fade Vandy.
Notre Dame -9 neutral field vs Syracuse
The Syracuse offense relies heavy on the run, but Notre Dames strength on defense is stopping the run. The ND offense looks completely different this year with the return of Golson, who has 11 total touchdowns and 0 turnovers. Last week Syracuse suffered a horrible loss at home to Maryland, even though the had a 220 total yard advantage, it was 2 extra turnovers that did them in. Notre Dame travels extremely well, especially to the east coast, and are on a current 10-1 mark on regular season neutral site games. Notre Dame is also winning it's games by a 26 ppg average, although it was against inferior opponents who have a combined 4-7 record. In the end though, the Irish ability to stop the run will determine this outcome, and I don't expect the offense to falter.
Arkansas +9 neutral field Texas A&M
Normally we are backers of the Texas A&M team and the unstoppable offense. However, this week we need to go with the other unstoppable offense in Arkansas run game. This will be the best offense that Texas A&M has faced all season, and they did allow 240 rushing yards to Rice. In the end look for this one to come down to the wire, as we see which offense can outlast the other.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M over 71 points
Speaking of Arkansas and Texas A&M, while locking in the Arkansas plus the points, take the over in this game too. As we just discussed, these teams have dominating offenses, and I don't expect there to be lack of scoring in this game. The points total is high, but a score of 42-35 is a cover, and totally capable of happening as last year the score was 45-33.
Washington +8 vs Stanford
Last week Washington got caught in the first half looking ahead to Stanford and trailed Georgia State at home 14-0 at halftime. The 2nd half was a different story as the Huskies took over and scored 45 straight unanswered to win 45-14. This is the first road game for Stanford, and while they haven't had any problems winning at home against non-conference foes, when they battled USC, it was a different story. They do come in with the number 1 defense in the country in yards allowed and points scored, but Washington isn't lacking for offense either. Look for Washington to keep it close to the end.
Georgia -17 vs Tennessee
I imagine this game will play out similar to the Tennessee @ Oklahoma game. That was the first road game for this young Tennessee team, and they played tough, but it wasn't close. This is the first road conference game for this young team, and while they'll benefit from having a bye last week, I don't expect it will sway the outcome of this game. Georgia bounced back well from the upset loss @ South Carolina 2 weeks ago with a 66-0 win over Troy. The run game for Georgia is dominating, and allows Mason to get more comfortable in the pocket. In the end though, the home crowd will be to much for the young Tennessee team, and Georgia runs away with it.
Duke +7 at Miami (FL)
Duke is playing solid football, and have a bye on deck, so they will be coming out guns blazing in the game. Miami has played well at home, but against inferior opponents, while facing stiffer competition on the road hasn't gone so well for this team. Duke is still trying to earn respect and will use this game as a spring board to get that respect. Look for this one to stay closer than the experts think.
Louisiana-Monroe -14 vs Troy
Troy is in the second game of back to back that saw them get destroyed against Georgia 66-0. ULM is coming off a bye and is fully fresh. Troy enters with the #122 ranked rush defense and the #120 pass efficiency defense. ULM has won the last 3 games between these 2 teams at home, and nothing I've seen leads me to believe that it will be different, as Troy defense is very similar to Idaho, and ULM put 38 up on Idaho. Troy is also banged up after the Georgia game, and I expect eager to get to their bye next week.
Nebraska -21 vs Illinois
Here is what you need to know. Illinois has the 90th ranked rush defense allowing 172 yards per game. Nebraska running back Abdullah has already rushed for 200+ yards twice the season, and this will be the 3rd time. Playing at home, Illinois barely beat Youngstown state, Western Kentucky and were losing last week 21-6 to Texas state before rallying for a 42-35 win. The one road game this year they played was a 44-19 blow out loss to Washington. While some might be worried that Nebraska could get caught looking ahead to Michigan State next week, I believe the wake up call that McNeese State gave them in week 2 will keep them grounded and focused on the game at hand. Look for Abdullah to lead the way in another blowout win.
That enough games for you to choose from? Good luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
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