Ugh, what a frustrating Saturday. Our released picks ended up going 6-6 on Saturday, which put us at 7-7 for week 3. That is back to back weeks of .500 selections, and that isn’t good enough. I hate getting juiced, I’d rather lose, well not really but I really hate getting juiced on the day.
Along with finding a few teams that we believe are undervalued and riding through the season, we also like to look for teams that are over rated and play against them each week. The 2 teams that we targeted for that this year was Georgia State and Vanderbilt. This week we didn’t feel confident in Air Force laying double digits or UMass traveling to Nashville. But we should have stuck to our manifesto as both Air Force and UMass went on the road and covered. That was frustrating to watch.
In week 2 we had Maryland laying the points on the road at South Florida. USF played them hard and had a decent running game, so thinking a below average NC State team coming to town this past weekend was a great opportunity to ride this Bull. However, we were initially concerned about USF as they forced 6 Maryland turnovers, and still couldn’t get the win. In the end, we didn’t put enough weight on that factor and backed the Bulls this week anyways. It was the wrong decision. Maryland isn’t that good, and USF is even worse. We’ve decided to add USF to the list of Georgia State and Vanderbilt of schools to go against each week.
Indiana had so many chances to put away an inferior Bowling Green team, but they couldn’t. Every time they got close they would suffer a self-inflicted wound and it cost them in the end as they weren’t able to overcome all of their mistakes.
Pittsburgh got off to such a slow start that I swear I saw the training staff checking pulses on the sidelines to make sure the team was still alive. They overcame the sluggish start to win by 17 but that wasn’t enough to get us to where we wanted to go.
Central Michigan looked nothing like the team that went into Purdue and pulled off the road upset last week. This looked like the normal CMU team that we see each year. This was a classic let down game. Big road win, then going home versus a lesser opponent. This was a trap and we should’ve laid off this game.
Speaking of letdown games, Virginia Tech let East Carolina own them the whole game. The offense couldn’t get anything going. It looked to me like ECU was sitting in a zone defense, and didn’t let VT playmakers get past them. This was another trap game, coming off the big upset victory of Ohio State the week before on the road. We thought that there was no way Frank Beamer would ever let one of his teams get caught with their pants down after he just caught a team with its pants down. We were wrong.
Late night Texas A&M looked solid, but we just laid to many points with them. Don’t get us wrong, we still believe it was the right play, and they were close to covering a few times, but we unable to get that final touchdown that was needed. A slow start, and a stalled drive at the end cost us this game.
Georgia Southern and Virginia played tough, just like we thought they would. Georgia Southern’s head coach must be one hell of a half time speaker, cause his boys came out a different team in the second half. Meanwhile, Virginia won in a heavy weight battle home against Louisville. They pulled off the upset, and continue to look like a solid team this year. Remember Virginia going forward each week.
Duke, Ole Miss and Oklahoma all performed as expected. Duke exceeded our expectations, and Ole Miss looks like a team to be reckoned with come SEC conference play. We thought Oklahoma would run the score up on Tennessee, and they tried but couldn’t get it past 24.
Finally we almost had the over in the Arkansas/Texas Tech game at halftime. Half way through the 3rd we were able to mark this one a win, as both teams couldn’t play defense.
So it was a frustrating week, but again another educational one. Remember it’s not always about finding the hot teams and riding them, sometimes you need to find the bad teams and go against them, even when you’re concerned about their opponents. Well that’s week 3 in the books, again we finished the week 7-7, bringing our season record to 21-18 or 53.8%, which means that we can’t keep having .500 weeks. Another .500 week and we aren’t winning money anymore. Turn in next week for our week 4 picks, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak
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