NFL week 8 Thursday night Football San Diego at Denver

Okay, I'm a little late getting this posted so I'm going to get right to it.  Take San Diego and the points.  Currently you can get San Diego +9.5 at even money, and I don't think you can get better value than that.

In the past 5 years when divisional opponents play on a Thursday night and the spread is 7 points or greater, the underdog is 7-2 ATS.

Since coming to Denver, Peyton Manning is only 4-6 ATS versus AFC west opponents when favored by 7 points or more.  Further that he is just 2-3 since last season.

San Diego is 7-0-4 ATS in last 11 in Denver.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in last 6 meetings between these 2 teams.

Road team is 12-4-5 ATS in the last 21 games.

There you have it, value and situation sit with the underdog Chargers.

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NFL week 7 Arizona at Oakland

Arizona -4 at Oakland

This is my lock of the week pick.  Arizona is one of the strongest teams in the NFL this year, and that’s been with a revolving door at QB.  Palmer is back for a second week in a row, and this isn’t a division opponent so don’t look for the Raiders to be up for it.  The Cardinals defense is amazing this year. 

Not only do 4 of my 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Cardinals in this game, but it also has 3 key numbers, including on the 1 system that disagrees and puts value on the Raiders.  I have the Cardinals as getting 3 points of value in my game expectations systems, and that number has been 7-4 so far this season.  My vegas line system has the Cardinals getting 2.5 points of value and that number so far this year is 4-3.  Finally, the one that drove home the selection for me, the outlier of the 5 systems, my 13/14 system has the Raiders getting 1 point of value, but that number is only 1-5 in the 6 times it’s come up, and the home team fails to cover by -7.5 points.  Yes, you read that right, in the 6 times the home underdog has had value of 1 point, they fail to cover by more than a touchdown.  Arizona wins BIG.

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NFL week 7 Atlanta at Baltimore

Atlanta +7 at Baltimore

Yes, Atlanta lost at home to the Bears last week and they have put up back to back stink shows.  Yes, the Ravens dominated the Bucs last week at home.  But each week in the NFL is like a new life, you never know what is going to happen.  4 of my 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Falcons in this game.  Also, 3 of those 4 systems in agreement are on key numbers for the Falcons.

The most convincing for me of the key numbers is the result from my game expectations system.  That system shows the Falcons as having 1 point of value, and for all games this year with 1 point of value they have yet to lose ATS with a record of 6-0.  Look for that trend to continue here this week.

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NFL week 7 Cleveland at Jacksonville

Cleveland -6 at Jacksonville

Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL.  No, I’m not saying that because of record.  I’m saying it because ever ratings system that I’ve seen has the Jaguars on the bottom, and it’s not even close.  Cleveland is much improved this year, and they keep getting better each week.  They needed a monster come from behind at half time victory to get over the Titans, but that just shows this team doesn’t stop. 

Only 3 of my 5 systems agree on the value with the Browns, but the 2 systems that say the value is on the Jaguars are on key numbers for the Browns.  For example, my 13/14 system says that the Jaguars have 3 points of value in this game, but when I look at the past results of home underdogs with 3 points value in my 13/14 summary I see they are only 3-5 against the spread, and miss the cover by an average of -2.5 points.  Cleveland rolls on the road again.

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NFL Week 7 Miami at Chicago

Chicago -3 vs Miami

This is an intriguing matchup.  Miami is coming off a tough home loss to Green Bay, who won in the final seconds.  Chicago is coming off a road win at Atlanta.  The dolphins are 1-1 on the road so far this year, and the Bears are somehow 0-2 at home.  Obviously being win less at home is something the Bears will want to change.  

All 5 systems that I maintain show value on the Bears side.  When all 5 systems agree, the results have been split so far this year, but 2 of the systems fall on key system numbers, that have generated excellent results, and 2 more that are nearly split 50/50.  Both teams have struggled with turnovers this year.  Look for Cutler to have a good day, and the Bears to get their first home win of the season.

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college football week 8 ATS best bets part 1

Not a lot of time, getting right to it.  Here are the games I like up until the 4 pm kick off times

Tulsa +2 vs USF
Ignore the records, and the stats.  A home team getting points against a very poor team?  I will take it

Florida Atlantic +4.5 vs Western Kentucky
Same example as above, both teams have 2 wins, and we're getting points at home.  Easy play

Virginia +3.5 @ Duke
Virginia is coming in off a bye, and has one of the best defenses in the nation.  Duke survived on the road last week against Georgia Tech, but that was mostly from GT shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly.  Duke benefited from 3 turnovers and 2 missed FG by GT.  Virginia is better and more disciplined than GT, and coming in rested.  Throw some points on top of it and that's the recipe of success.

Clemson -5 @ Boston College
Yes BC is improved this year, and yes they play better at home, but this Clemson team will just be to much for them to handle.  Clemson has more fire power on offense than any team BC has faced this year.  Look for them to continue putting up big points on the road.

Arkansas +3.5 vs Georgia
These two teams are built extremely similar with power runs and power defenses.  Arkansas is better than people give them credit for, and last week Georgia wanted to prove that they didn't need Gurley, so it was a statement game.  This is the 2nd week in a row on the road for Georgia, and they are down to their 4th running back on the year.  Look for Arkansas to squeak out the win.

TCU -8.5 vs Oklahoma State
This line isn't available anymore, but it's the line I locked in 2 days ago so that's what I'm posting.  I'd still play TCU at -10.  This line has steamed up from the open of -8.  The TCU offense is way to good to be stopped, and the defense is better than most think.  Look for them to defend their home turf, and make a statement with this game.

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NFL Thursday night football

In this weeks Thursday night match up we have the stumbling New York Jets traveling to the New England Patriots in this divisional rivalry game.  The Patriots are currently favored by -10 points, which seems to be mostly driven by the past 2 weeks success they have had, and the Jets inability to do anything with the ball on offense.

I have the Patriots getting value in 3 of my 5 systems, and the other 2 systems agreeing with the line of Patriots -10.

In looking at the 2014 season stats we see that the 2 teams are pretty balanced here with the Jets averaging 27 attempts for 121 yards per game while the Patriots are averaging 30 attempts for 110 yards.  While the Jets have the higher YPC average, the slight edge here goes to the Patriots as they average more attempts and allows them to control the game a little more.

In the passing game, the Patriots really show their efficiency over the Jets.  The Jets are throwing the ball 35 times for 182 yards per game.  The Patriots are throwing it 36 times for 239 yards per game.  Big edge to the Patriots here as the Jets defense is also allowing 235 yards per game in the air.

Next we need to look at turnovers.  The Jets are averaging 0.8 fumbles and 1.2 interceptions per game, while the Patriots defense is averaging 1.2 fumble recoveries and 1.2 interceptions per game.  Knowing these tidbits it's safe to assume that the Jets will have at least 1 fumble and 1 interception in this game.  On the other side the Patriots offense is averaging 0.5 fumbles per game and only 0.3 interceptions per game, while the Jets are taking away .3 fumbles and .2 interceptions per game.  If New England has any turnovers in this game it will be a fumble, so the Patriots get the turnover advantage.

I don't expect either team to miss any field goals in this game, as both teams kicking game has been solid all year.

So the Patriots get the slight edge in rushing, and the definitive edge in passing and turnovers.  Knowing this information, I tend to agree with my systems that the Patriots are the right side to be on.  However, I don't see enough value on this game so I'm passing.  If you need some action Thursday night take the Patriots at home, but keep it small, as that is a lot of chalk to cover against a divisional foe.

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NFL week 6 ATS best bets

Last weeks picks went 2-1, I'll take it.  This week we have 4 games for you, and a few suggestions on teaser plays.  Little time to waste so lets get straight to the picks.

Cleveland pk vs Pittsburgh
Second meeting for these teams.  It was a tale of 2 halves in the first meeting with Pittsburgh dominating the first half and Cleveland running the 2nd.  Cleveland in coming off the biggest come from behind win in team history last week in the 2nd half on the road at Tennessee.  Cleveland needs to get it going for 60 minutes and not 30, and I think this is the week they get it together.  They play tough at home, and Pittsburgh has struggled on the road this year.  Take the home team.

Atlanta -3 vs Chicago
Atlanta wins at home and loses on the road.  Devin Hester has his best game of the season against his former coach Lovie Smith, and I think he will put forth an even bigger effort against his former team.  The Falcons have too much speed for the Bears defense.  Granted the Falcons defense hasn't been anything to write home about this year, but the offense on the turf in a dome is deadly.  Falcons win the close one.

Tampa Bay +3.5 vs Baltimore
Since week 1 Tampa Bay is the most improved team so far this season.  They play really tough grind it out football.  They dropped a heart breaker last week on the road to New Orleans, which is a really tough place to play.  Baltimore looks good but not great.  They have been running a balance offense, which has helped them this year, but they haven't faced a defense like Tampa's yet this year.  Look for the Bucs to keep it close, and maybe get the outright win.

San Diego -7 @ Oakland
What can I say, best team in the NFL taking on the worst.  Granted this is on the road, but it doesn't matter the Raiders don't have any of the type of players that the Chargers do.  The Chargers offense is so good, and so balanced this year, teams don't know where the ball is going.  They probably have the most depth at WR than they have ever had in Rivers career, and he is hitting all of his targets.  Look for the Chargers to keep the blowouts going, and win big this week.

For a few teaser options here is what I'm looking at.
6.5 point teaser
Green Bay +3.5 and Cincinnati -0.5
Taking the Packers as a -3 favorite and turning them into a 3.5 dog is great, especially since you get the hook in this one.  Cincinnati will look to bounce back at home against Carolina after a stinker on the road to New England last week.  Both teams get the win, and we get the cash

6.5 point teaser
Atlanta +3.5 and San Diego -1
2 teams we outlined above, but with a little extra security.  Now we only need an SD win, easily done, and we get the hook with the Falcons again.

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College Football weekly ATS picks

Welcome back for another exciting week in college football.  Last week our picks started out strong, but faltered in the late games, starting with the collapse of the Michigan State offense, and snowballing from there.  It was a great week of football though, with so many exciting games.  Here are this weeks NCAAF best bets.

Friday night lights!
Fresno State -9.5 @ UNLV
UNLV is not good.  The defense is extremely porous.  Fresno State is battle tested as they played 3 big 5 conference opponents to start the season.  After those 3 games they have been on a tear.  No reason for them to let off the gas in this game, Fresno State wins BIG!

UCLA +2.5 vs Oregon
Yes UCLA was a let down last week, but maybe they were looking ahead to this match up against Oregon knowing the ducks had a few extra days to prepare.  Oregon is coming off an upset at home at the hands of Arizona.  Don't expect a bounce back game from Oregon.  The offensive line is not playing good, and now they need to go on the road and play against a solid front 7.  No reason for UCLA to be the underdog here, take the points and watch the Bruins win.

Mississippi State +3 vs Auburn
Auburn has played well in big games this year, but the win over LSU last week is not a sign of this weeks match up.  LSU is having a down year, and is a year away before they are ready to have that young talent competing down there.  Mississippi State proved that they are for real last week with a big win at home vs Texas A&M.  Auburn only big road test this year was against Kansas State, and KSU gifted that game to Auburn with missed field goals and turnovers and KSU still covered the spread.  Take the home team and the points in this one.

Ole Miss +2.5 @ Texas A&M
This could be a trap game for Ole Miss coming off the big home upset of Alabama, but I believe they will overcome that.  They proved they have the defense needed to hang with anyone in the SEC, and Texas A&M has proved that they don't have a defense and they struggle against good defenses.  Ole Miss will take advantage of an aggies team that can't stop anyone and come away with a big road win.

Tulane -3 vs UConn
This isn't a play on Tulane but rather a play against UConn.  UConn is bad, and now they have to travel.  I just don't trust UConn on the road to lose by less than 3 points.

Georgia Tech -3 vs Duke
I first thought Duke was the play in this game, and then I noticed that they are allowing close to 200 yards rushing per game.  Guess what, Georgia Tech runs the ball better than anyone in the college football.  Duke did have a bye week before this game, and GT is coming off it's biggest game of the season, but that won't matter, the rambling wreck will run over the blue devils in this one.

Oklahoma -14 vs Texas
Oklahoma wants to bounce back with a statement game after lasts weeks stinker versus TCU.  Lucky for them Texas has no offense close to the capabilities of TCU.  Stoops doesn't lose back to back games, and he loves running up the score on Texas when he has the chance.  Look for a statement from OU in this one.

Northwestern +4 @ Minnesota
Northwestern doesn't like playing easy games against non-conference foes it seems.  The last few weeks against Big Ten opponents they have looked like the team expected this year.  Minnesota is coming off a bye and are home, but this will be a close game, as both teams like to control the clock and have stout defenses.  Look for a close low scoring affair.

West Virginia -5.5 @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech is another team that can't stop the ball.  West Virginia has been up and down this year, but look for them to take advantage of the poor defense to bounce back.  WVU by 7.

Notre Dame -16.5 vs North Carolina
UNC can't stop the ball, and UND has a potent offense.  That's the recipe for a blow out.  Notre Dame will be looking to put up big numbers on offense this week after being held to lowest point total this year against Stanford.  That game shouldn't have been that close as the Irish had the yard and first down advantage.

Notre Dame/UNC over 62
Notre Dame can score a lot of points, and they won't have to play in the poor weather this week.  UNC can't stop the ball at all, so look for UND to put up a lot of points and dominate this one.

Arizona +3 vs USC
Arizona could be in for a let down game after pulling the big upset on the road in Oregon last week, but I doubt that.  They are home this week, and had a few extra days to prepare as they played last Thursday.  USC is coming off a let down game at home where they were upset by Arizona State as a double digit favorite.  Look for them to be 0-2 against teams from Arizona after this week.

NFL Thursday Night Football Indianapolis at Houston free pick

Thursday night football at its finest tonight with this AFC South battle.  Houston is much improved over last year, as expected, but Indianapolis is flying high on offense.  Andrew Luck is coming into his own as a QB in the NFL, and keeps putting up big numbers.  This will be his biggest test of the season so far as he is traveling on a short week, and going up against a tough Houston defense at home. 
Houston doesn't have very high rankings in defense yards allowed per game or passing yards allowed, but they haven't kept points off the board, bending but never breaking.  They have a tendency to stay calm, and happy to keep the games close and hope to pull them out in the end.  They've been a rushing team this year behind Arian Foster, and Deandre Hopkins has become a legit threat on the outside in his 2nd year.  The biggest reason for the turnaround in 2014 for Houston has been because of the run game.  They are averaging almost 32 rushing attempts per game, allowing them to control the clock and the flow of the game.  Also, they aren't playing from behind as much, and aren't forced to air it out in hopes of getting back in games, but I didn't watch a lot of Houston last year so maybe they fell behind because they were throwing the ball and not completing passes. 

Indianapolis defense hasn't faced much rushing this year as the offense has gotten out and put points up on the board and forced other teams to throw to try to get back in the game quickly.  The colts defense is giving up nearly 5 yards per carry as they are still allowing 102 ypg on the ground on only 22 attempts.  That's not good against a team that is rushing the ball 32 times a game and averaging 127 yards per game.  Indianapolis has controlled the ball in it's first 5 games averaging nearly 75 plays per game, which is 18 more per game than their opponents.  Houston is running a lot less plays on offense, averaging almost 60 plays per game while facing 64 plays per game.  I don't believe the play differential will be as large in this game as in prior Colts games.

Final thought on this game is turnovers.  So far this year Indianapolis has 3 fumbles and 6 interceptions on offense and 4 fumble recoveries and 6 interceptions on defense leaving them with a -1 turnover ratio.  Houston has only fumbled the ball twice while recovery 7 and has thrown 6 interceptions while picking off 5 leaving them with +4 in the turnover department.

As long as Houston keeps control of the game and ball they will keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset.  Take the home team and the points in this one.

NFL week 5 Monday Night Football free pick

Well the 3 games I wrote about yesterday went 2-1, not bad.  But there is still one game left in the week and it represents a chance to get another win.  Here are my thoughts on tonight's game.

Of the 5 systems that I maintain one of them is what I call game expectations.  A brief explanation of what I do is; enter the number of rush attempts, rush yards, pass attempts, pass yards, int's (both off and def), fumbles (both off and def) and missed field goals.  Each of those categories has a point total assigned to it, once all is added up and home field advantage is added in the difference is the line.  Any variance between that difference and the line is the value.  

It's not that complicated once I see what average stats are for those with the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined and also the 2014 season alone.  It's a little time consuming and I should spend more time with it, but it's been my most successful system so far this year.  In weeks 1-3 the teams it said had value on them were 10-6 ATS in each week.  In week 4 that record dropped to 7-6, but so far this week the results are 10-4.  

In drilling into those results some more I see there are 3 key value numbers: 1 (5-0 ATS), 2 (6-2 ATS), 3 (7-2 ATS) and 8 (7-2 ATS).  All of those are 75% or greater ATS.  Oh and that counts pushes as being incorrect, so those games like Cleveland on Sunday (also a GE 3) get counted in the loss column instead of wins because it was a push and the system was incorrect in predicting value.  We got our money back at least with that one, so the percentages could be even better!!

So what does this have to do with anything?  Well it just so happens that the Redskins are on one of those key numbers.  My game expectations line is Seattle -4, but since the line is Seattle -7 then we have 3 points of value with the Redskins.  And 3 has been covering 78% so for this season.  This is the 3rd game this week with a GE value of 3, the others were Cleveland (pushed the bet but counted as incorrect), and Houston which covered.

When I look at my 4 other systems 3 of them agree with my GE system and show value on Washington.  The only outlier of the 5 systems is the one I call Value Rating, and when it is the lone outlier the ATS record is 3-1.

So if you need some action tonight take the Redskins.  I'd keep it small though.  

Thanks for stopping by, check back later for next weeks picks.  And as always be kind and follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak 

NFL week 5 free game picks

Earlier in the week I posted some games that represented 2.5 points or more of value compared to my vegas line, and since some of those lines have move and now only 3 of those original games are left.  Those weren't my weekly picks though, as they were just the results of one system.  Here are my 3 picks for the week.

New Orleans -10 vs Tampa Bay
You'll need to buy this down from -10.5, but I prefer the key number.  New Orleans has struggled on the road so far this season, but have covered and won the only home game they played.  They still have 7 home games left and only 5 road games, so they can still turn season around, and they need to do that with a big win this week.  Tampa Bay is coming off a road upset of Pittsburgh, and New Orleans was blown out by Dallas.  People are over reacting to that, and staying away from New Orleans.  I think that is a mistake.  The Super dome is one of the hardest places for road teams to play, and New Orleans will want to make a statement.  Look for them to win big here.

San Diego -6.5 vs NY Jets
The Chargers are playing extremely well right now, while the Jets have somethings that still need to be figured out, and now they have to travel across the country to play the Chargers.  Doesn't sound like a great recipe for success.  The chargers passing game is doing extremely well right now, and Rivers has lots of weapons at his disposal.  The Jets, who were my sleeper pick for the year, have been disappointing on defense, especially in stopping the pass.  The Chargers pull out a great one here.

Buffalo +7 @ Detroit
Yes Detroit has a very stout defense, especially against the run.  Last week was the first time this season the lions allowed 100+ rushing yards.  Buffalo is a run first team and they are actually averaging 28 rushing attempts and 122 yards rushing per game, which is almost identical to what the lions gave up last week to the jets.  Looking deeper into this, the lions offensive statistics nearly match the bills defense statistics in yards and attempts for both rushing and passing.  If both teams hit season averages, then I think the Bills can keep it close or pull the upset.  The line hasn't moved off the key number of 7, I was hoping to get a few more points out of this, but doesn't seem likely.  The move at QB for the Bills doesn't frighten me as I actually think it makes them slightly better.  Look for the Bills to continue to pound the ball on the ground, and then take advantage of the Lions sucking in the secondary to stop it and going over the top.  Buffalo and the points.

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College Football week 6 free picks

Last week was a nice bounce back week, finishing in the black for the day.  There are a lot of good lines out there, so I won't waste any time.

Georgia -33.5 vs Vanderbilt
Yes, again against Vandy.  Last week they barely moved the ball on offense and the only score they got was on an interception return.  Kentucky looked like they were content to coast to the win as they didn't take any chances in the 2nd half.  Georgia is coming off a disappointing game last week, and last time they disappointed they came out with a statement win against a lesser opponent.  Vandy is also a lesser opponent and I expect Georgia to treat them the same way.

East Carolina -40.5 vs SMU
SMU is quite possibly the worst team in FBS, them and Eastern Michigan are definitely battling for that title.  East Carolina offense has been running on all cylinders this year.  SMU can't stop anybody.  SMU is losing by an average of 47 points per game.  They are hitting the road after back to back rough home games against Texas A&M and TCU.  I don't expect ECU to be any gentler on them and the SMU average point loss gets larger after this game.

Virginia -5 vs Pittsburgh
Virginia is playing well above expectations this year, and they keep getting better each week.  Pittsburgh on the other hand has been heading in the opposite direction, and last week were upset at home against Akron.  Pittsburgh seems to have trouble stopping the ball, while Virginia's defense is one of it's strengths.  Look for Virginia to handle Pittsburgh at home.

West Virginia -28 vs Kansas
Kansas is bad, really bad.  They just fired Charlie Weis, and now have to travel to West Virginia.  WVU's offense is flying on all cylinders, and the Jayhawks can't stop anybody.  Look for WVU to take advantage of a sloppy Kansas program.

Mississippi State -3 vs Texas A&M
Texas A&M got lucky last week to squeak by with the win against Arkansas, and now have to travel to a dangerous Mississippi State.  This will be TA&M hardest game of the season.  Dak Prescott is in complete control of this offense, as he lead the dismantling of LSU in Death Valley last week.  I don't expect a let down game here, and the crowd will make it difficult on TA&M.

Notre Dame+2.5 vs Stanford
Notre Dame plus points at home this season, thank you Vegas for an early christmas gift.  Stanford's defense has been good this year, limiting opponents all year.  But the offense has left something to be desired.  Notre Dame is playing well on both sides of the ball.  Look for them to pull the upset at home this week.

Auburn -7 vs LSU
Need to buy this down from -7.5, but it's money well spent.  LSU has been susceptible to the run all season, and that works in Auburn's favor as they love to run the ball.  The magnificent ATS streak Auburn was on came to an end at Kansas State, but they are starting a fresh one after a big win last week.  Look for that streak to be 2 after this week.

USC -11.5 vs Arizona State
ASU is coming off a had and disappointing loss to UCLA at home last week.  They expected to play better and be competitive in the whole game, but that wasn't the case.  USC had it's eye opener when they traveled to Boston College and was upset.  They won't overlook any opponents for the rest of the season.  Look for them to take care of ASU and get some revenge for the loss last year on the road.

Ball State +2.5 vs Army
Ball State hasn't been that impressive this year, but they had guys out with injuries and are starting to get healthy.  Army has not been good all year and last week lost to lowly Yale.  Ball State offense will be to much for the black knights this week, and they pull the upset.

Kansas State -14 vs Texas Tech
You'll need to buy this down from the current line of -14.5, but again a little extra security is good.  Texas Tech has trouble stopping other teams from moving the ball and putting up points.  They haven't faced a defense as good as Kansas State yet this year.  KSU is coming off a bounce back win after the disappointing loss at home to Auburn.  Auburn was lucky to win that game, Texas Tech won't be so lucky.

Mississippi +6 vs Alabama
This is the game Ole Miss wanted and this is the one its got.  College Game Day will be there, and all eyes will be on this 3:30 game.  Look for the home team to feed off the crowd, and keep this game close all game.  I'm not quite ready to say that Ole Miss will get the upset, but they will have the chance to.

Michigan State -6.5 vs Nebraska
Nebraska hasn't seen a defense like this, and will probably have some trouble running the ball as successfully as they have all year.  Michigan State is playing like a team possessed, and will seek to make amends for the let down game in Oregon in week 2 with a statement win against a ranked opponent at home.

Nebraska @ Michigan State over 59 points
Both offenses have been playing good, and while this will be the best defense that Nebraska has faced this year I still expect them to score some points.

Air force +3.5 vs Navy
Air Force is getting points at home in a rivalry game, and they have the better offense.  I'm either missing something or this is the 2nd early xmas gift from Vegas this week.

UCLA -13.5 vs Utah
Uh-oh someone woke the dragon.  And in this case the dragon is the UCLA offense.  I expect them to continue the success that they started last week on the road in a route of Arizona State.

Rutgers -1.5 vs Michigan
Big Ten surprise of the year, Rutgers is good and Michigan is bad.  Michigan can't defend it's own turf.  The student body and alumni are calling for the head coaches head and the AD's as well.  It's not a good time to be a wolverine.  They will be getting away from it all with a trip out east, but with Hoke coaching for his job, I think he comes up short because as the pressure has been at it's highest he is at his lowest.  Hoke gets fired after this loss.

Nevada +4.5 vs Boise State
Boise State is struggling a little bit this year and isn't the BSU teams of old.  Nevada has been exceeding expectations all year, and will want to have some revenge for all the time BSU beat them.  Look for a late night cover, and possible SU upset.

That's a lot of games.  You don't have to play them all, pick your favorites, there is enough to go around.  Good luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 5 Vegas bets

One of the systems that I maintain is what I call the Vegas line.  It's basically a power rating system, but one that uses much smaller point values assigned to each team than my other power rating system.  In reviewing this ranking results from the first 4 weeks of the NFL season, something spectacular jumped out at me.  It is all based on the value the Vegas line calculated compared to the spread.  Teams with 2.5 or more points of value, according to the Vegas line, are 11-4 against the spread through week 4.  That's a 73% winning margin, and 20% higher than what you need to win to break even.

I've compiled the data for week 5 and I've found 5 teams that have 2.5 points or more value ATS.  Now I'm not sure that the 73% winning margin will continue, but it won't hurt to track for a few weeks and see how it progresses.  Here are the teams with 2.5 points of value or more for week 5.

Tennessee +1.5 vs Cleveland.
According to the Vegas line this should be a pick em game on a neutral field, but adjusting for home field and Tennessee should be -2.5 point favorite.  Since they are an underdog we are getting 4 points of value.

Atlanta +4 at NY Giants
Even after adjusting for home field, Atlanta should only be a 1 point underdog according to the Vegas line.  That leaves 3 points of value.  And who doesn't need an extra field goal every now and then.

Houston +6 @ Dallas
The Vegas line has 3 points of value for Houston, and is saying that on a neutral site this would be a pick em game.

Buffalo +7 @ Detroit
This game is also showing 3 points of value for Buffalo as they should only be a 4 point underdog on the road.

New England +1.5 vs Cincinnati
I know this seems like a tough pill to swallow based on year to date results for both teams, but the Vegas line is showing 2.5 points of value with New England.  Which makes sense because I don't remember the last time the Patriots were underdogs at home with Bellicheck and Brady together.

That's the Vegas line results.  I'm still compiling the data for my other 4 systems, but wanted to pass this note along.  Check back later for my official week 5 picks, and as always follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 4 picks best bets

As covered in the NFL recap, since the disastrous 0-4 week 1 the best bets picks posted have been doing well, getting us back to 9-8 on the season, YAY!!  We laid a dud on Thursday night football, and I even spoke to a buddy about how Cousins performed too well against the Eagles last week and a lot of pressure would be on him to play that way ever week.  Cousins got down, then he pressed and forced passes and threw interceptions.  Even though all 5 systems agreed on Washington, I had a hard time pulling the trigger, regretfully I did anyways, and now the record is at 9-9.  That was short lived.
Here are the rest of the games for this weekend that stand out.

Chicago +1.5 vs Green Bay
As we learned last week, wait for the line to move before grabbing the points.  Green Bay is a public team, and will get a lot of money from the public to back them.  That will move the line and then we get even better value with the Bears.  Four of the five systems used all agree that the value in this game is with Chicago, and actually all but 1 of those 4 think they should be favored (that is due to the Bears being at home and being adjusted for home field, on a neutral field Green Bay would be favored slightly), and 1 thinks they should be 0.5 point underdog.  This will probably move to +2 or maybe even +2.5 and that's when we strike, but realistically any points here with the home team is a good play.

Philadelphia +5 @ San Francisco
The Eagles are playing well despite slow starts to all 3 games so far this season needing to come from behind to win in all 3.  San Francisco is a disaster in disguise, needed 2 defensive touchdowns against the Cowboys to get their only win this season.  The 49ers have been turnover prone, and throwing the ball to much.  They dominated last year utilizing the run.  Hopefully the late afternoon start means the Eagles offense shows up for 4 quarters, and if it does the 49ers could be in a lot of trouble, and Jim Harbaugh will be thinking about taking over for Brady Hoke at Michigan next year.  Eagles pull the upset!

Dallas +3 vs New Orleans
Just like Chicago we are going to be patient and let this line move a little bit hoping to get more value with this play.  4 of the 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Cowboys for this game, and that they should only be a 1 point underdog at the most.  The Cowboys only loss this year was to San Francisco, as discussed above.  Sure the defense hasn't been stellar, but they have been better than what people think.  New Orleans finally got a win last week, but that was against Minnesota without AP and at home.  New Orleans is 0-2 on the road this year, and both games have been settled by a field goal or less.  Until NO starts to win big on the road, we aren't laying any chalk with them, as the allegedly improved defense continues to give up plays and points.  Be patient and let the line move, as I'm sure 75% of the public will be on the Saints.

NY Jets +2 vs Detroit
This has an opportunity to get to +3, and so take a patient approach and see if you get a better line.  This is another game where the public is all over the Lions and while occasionally the public get's it right, the majority of the time they are wrong.  Detroit is coming off a big win against Green Bay, but it was because of the defense that they won the game and nothing to do with the offense.  The Jets defense is way better than the Packers, and the Lion have to go on the road to play this game, so I expect them to struggle slightly.  Plus think about it this way, each week there are a few games that you look and are like, whoa I can get __________ -2, I'm in.  It looks to good to be true to be backing the Lions this week.  Add in the fact that all 5 systems agree that the value lies with the Jets, and that the 2 most accurate of the 5 so far this season call for them to be favorites, and I'm backing the J-E-T-S, Jets!, Jets!, Jets!

Take those 4, add in Thursday night and you get 5 games for the week.  Two other games that the systems liked that I couldn't pull the trigger on were Carolina +3.5 (Baltimore has great run defense, Carolina has struggled to run) and Miami -3.5 (who knows what Miami team will show up in London).  We know we're starting 0-1 this week do to the flop of Thursday, but we will be ending 4-1.  Good luck this weekend, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

College football week 5 picks part 2

Well a garbage touchdown with 5 minutes left in the game kept us from starting the week on a good foot.  It has been a tricky year so far on Thursday night.  Here are the rest of this weeks picks.

Virginia -27.5 vs Kent State
Virginia has proven week in and week out that it can play with the big boys this year.  After a close loss to UCLA and back to back wins, including an upset of Louisville, Virginia ran out of luck at BYU last week, but even that should've been a win as they led at halftime and out gained BYU.  Kent State is not good this year with losses to Ohio, Southern Alabama and a blow out loss in week 3 on the road at Ohio State.

Temple -6 @ UConn
The lack of ability to move the ball on offense was on full display last week for UConn against USF, but that is a trend not an outlier.  Last year Temple blew a 21 point lead to lose 28-21, but this UConn offense doesn't have any capability like last year.  Temple goes on the road and takes care of business.

Rutgers -11.5 vs Tulane
Tulane is not good, and Rutgers has made believers out of us.  The only game that Tulane was really competitive in this year was against SE Louisiana, which they won.  This is the 2nd of back to back road games for the green wave.  Rutgers returns home after an upset win over Navy on the road last week.  While you could worry that Rutgers could get caught looking ahead to Michigan next week, I don't think that will be a problem as the Scarlet Knights should take advantage of a porous run defense of Tulane.

Kentucky -17 vs Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is a team to bet against each week, and with this being the first road game of the season I see no reason to lay heavy chalk against them this week.  Kentucky is much improved, and can score in bunches.  Vanderbilt is coming off a tough home loss against South Carolina, which was the toughest team they have played this year.  With 31 freshmen playing for Vanderbilt this year, and it being there first game on the road, we continue to fade Vandy.

Notre Dame -9 neutral field vs Syracuse
The Syracuse offense relies heavy on the run, but Notre Dames strength on defense is stopping the run.  The ND offense looks completely different this year with the return of Golson, who has 11 total touchdowns and 0 turnovers.  Last week Syracuse suffered a horrible loss at home to Maryland, even though the had a 220 total yard advantage, it was 2 extra turnovers that did them in.  Notre Dame travels extremely well, especially to the east coast, and are on a current 10-1 mark on regular season neutral site games.  Notre Dame is also winning it's games by a 26 ppg average, although it was against inferior opponents who have a combined 4-7 record.  In the end though, the Irish ability to stop the run will determine this outcome, and I don't expect the offense to falter.

Arkansas +9 neutral field Texas A&M
Normally we are backers of the Texas A&M team and the unstoppable offense.  However, this week we need to go with the other unstoppable offense in Arkansas run game.  This will be the best offense that Texas A&M has faced all season, and they did allow 240 rushing yards to Rice.  In the end look for this one to come down to the wire, as we see which offense can outlast the other.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M over 71 points
Speaking of Arkansas and Texas A&M, while locking in the Arkansas plus the points, take the over in this game too.  As we just discussed, these teams have dominating offenses, and I don't expect there to be lack of scoring in this game.  The points total is high, but a score of 42-35 is a cover, and totally capable of happening as last year the score was 45-33.

Washington +8 vs Stanford
Last week Washington got caught in the first half looking ahead to Stanford and trailed Georgia State at home 14-0 at halftime.  The 2nd half was a different story as the Huskies took over and scored 45 straight unanswered to win 45-14.  This is the first road game for Stanford, and while they haven't had any problems winning at home against non-conference foes, when they battled USC, it was a different story.  They do come in with the number 1 defense in the country in yards allowed and points scored, but Washington isn't lacking for offense either.  Look for Washington to keep it close to the end.

Georgia -17 vs Tennessee
I imagine this game will play out similar to the Tennessee @ Oklahoma game.  That was the first road game for this young Tennessee team, and they played tough, but it wasn't close.  This is the first road conference game for this young team, and while they'll benefit from having a bye last week, I don't expect it will sway the outcome of this game.  Georgia bounced back well from the upset loss @ South Carolina 2 weeks ago with a 66-0 win over Troy.  The run game for Georgia is dominating, and allows Mason to get more comfortable in the pocket.  In the end though, the home crowd will be to much for the young Tennessee team, and Georgia runs away with it.

Duke +7 at Miami (FL)
Duke is playing solid football, and have a bye on deck, so they will be coming out guns blazing in the game.  Miami has played well at home, but against inferior opponents, while facing stiffer competition on the road hasn't gone so well for this team.  Duke is still trying to earn respect and will use this game as a spring board to get that respect.  Look for this one to stay closer than the experts think.

Louisiana-Monroe -14 vs Troy
Troy is in the second game of back to back that saw them get destroyed against Georgia 66-0.  ULM is coming off a bye and is fully fresh.  Troy enters with the #122 ranked rush defense and the #120 pass efficiency defense.  ULM has won the last 3 games between these 2 teams at home, and nothing I've seen leads me to believe that it will be different, as Troy defense is very similar to Idaho, and ULM put 38 up on Idaho.  Troy is also banged up after the Georgia game, and I expect eager to get to their bye next week.

Nebraska -21 vs Illinois
Here is what you need to know.  Illinois has the 90th ranked rush defense allowing 172 yards per game.  Nebraska running back Abdullah has already rushed for 200+ yards twice the season, and this will be the 3rd time.  Playing at home, Illinois barely beat Youngstown state, Western Kentucky and were losing last week 21-6 to Texas state before rallying for a 42-35 win.  The one road game this year they played was a 44-19 blow out loss to Washington.  While some might be worried that Nebraska could get caught looking ahead to Michigan State next week, I believe the wake up call that McNeese State gave them in week 2 will keep them grounded and focused on the game at hand.  Look for Abdullah to lead the way in another blowout win.

That enough games for you to choose from?  Good luck this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL Thursday Night Football NY Giants at Washington Redskins

It was another good week in week 3, with the 8 teams that matched on 4 of our 5 systems or better going 5-3 ATS.  The one team that matched in all 5 systems actually was one of the losses.  Also, depending on when you took the Browns and the points did it depend on your outcome of a loss, push or win, as all 3 were possibilities.  Out of the 8 teams, 7 were suggested with the Saints being left off because of uncertainties with team personnel, turns out the Vikings were without Peterson so this was a better play that initially thought.  So the 7 gave us a record of 4-3, bringing our season total to 8-9, and still improving on that initial 0-4 start to the season.

But all of that is in the past, and now it's time to talk about the future.  The future starts tonight with the NY Giants at Washington Redskins with the Redskins currently a -3.5 point favorite.  All 5 of the systems used match on Redskins getting value at -3.5, as they indicate that it should be somewhere between -4 and -5.5, which would agree with the line opening of -5.  In looking at the season stats through 3 weeks we see that this game will be decided on the ground.  Both teams are averaging around 30 carries per game, and while they are both also averaging over 100 yards per game (NY Giants 109, Redskins 135), the Giants average has greatly benefited from last week against Houston when they rushed for 192 yards.  The Redskins defense is only allowing 65 rushing yards per game, while the Giants are allowing 106.  This indicates that the Redskins would have an easier time to get to their season average than the Giants, allowing them to control the ball and the tempo of the game.  The run will also set up the pass, and give Cousins (second start this year) a better opportunity to succeed.
Also this year the Redskins are averaging 71 plays per game, which is quite high.  The Giants are averaging 64 plays a game.  Surely the Redskins average is given a boost from last weeks shoot out with the Eagles, but a 7 play difference is a touchdown drive.  Look for the Redskins to control the possession of time, and get the easy win.  Just to be on the safe side, pay the extra juice and buy the hook.
Washington Redskins -3

Good luck tonight, and check back tomorrow for the rest of the weekends action.  Oh and be kind, follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak.

college football week 5 game picks part 1

Last week was not a good week, as I covered in the week 4 recap.  However, this is a new week, we're all picked back up, shoulders are dusted off and we're ready to go.  Starting out this week is one game on Thursday night.  Look for another post on Friday for the weekend action.

Oklahoma State -14 vs Texas Tech
Texas Tech can't stop the run on defense, and Arkansas exploited that 2 weeks ago, before TT had the bye last week.  After the Arkansas game the TT defensive coordinator resigned.  Oklahoma State is running the ball on an average of 43 times per game, and with the porous rush D of TT, look for them to put up some big rushing stats.  In recent against the spread results TT is 0-4 last 4 on the road, 0-5 last 5 conference games and 1-8 in their last 9 overall.  OKSU is 12-3 in last 15 at home and 6-1 in last 7 conference games.  In the series TT is 0-4 in last 4 at OKSU, TT is 0-5 in last 5 meetings overall, and the favorite is 5-1 in last 6 meetings.  All signs point to all trends continuing this year.

Good luck Thursday night, and check back Friday for the weekend games.  Oh and follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominak

college football week 4 best bets recap

Well we didn’t want to get juiced in week 4, and that we certainly didn’t posting a losing record of 4-8-1, just a dreadful week.  In looking at what happened, it was a bunch of bad bounces, and the tale of 2 halves in some games that kept us from a winning week.  It could’ve just as easily been an 8-4-1 or 7-5-1 week, but that wasn’t the case and we’re holding losing tickets.  Let’s have a recap

Virginia Tech -8 vs Georgia Tech

This one looked good at half time and then again at the end of the third quarter with VT leading 16-10 and only needing a fg to cover.  Well in the 4^th quarter they collapse and get outscored 17-8, costing us the game and themselves the win.  Looks like VT is to young this year.

Pittsburgh -7 vs Iowa

Another game looking good heading into the half with a 17-7 lead.  Pitt was dominating the game, and controlling the line.  They looked like they were on there way.  Then in the second half Iowa just stopped letting Pitt run the ball, and Iowa outscored Pitt in the second half 17-3, again costing us the cover and Pitt the win

Duke -17 vs Tulane

This game went our way, and after 2 second half collapses to start the day, we thought this was the game to send us on our way to a winning week.  Duke offense continues to roll along, and Tulane struggled again on the road.  Duke with the huge win.

North Carolina +3 at East Carolina

This was a disaster from the word go.  Sure UNC was only down a point at the end of the 1^st quarter, but after that it was all ECU football.  UNC couldn’t get a stop to save there lives.

Texas A&M -33.5 at SMU

This game was over at half time.  Texas A&M looked like a team trying to make a point, and they did winning big on the road.

Navy -6.5 vs Rutgers

We thought Rutgers would be let down after loss at home to Penn State, but they weren’t, they were pissed off.  Navy was caught with it’s pants down.

Missouri -13.5 vs Indiana

Missouri defense finally found an offense it couldn’t stop, and Indiana was able to put forth best defensive effort all year and limited the Missouri offense.  Football is a weird game.

Washington -34.5 vs Georgia State

We have Georgia State as a team to bet against each week.  This should’ve been an easy cover, but Washington was asleep at the wheel in the first half, and was actually trailing by 14 at halftime.  They scored 45 in the second half and won by 31 points, but we needed that 4^th score in the 4^th quarter to be a touchdown and not a field goal to get the cover.  Unbelievable.

Arkansas -13.5 vs Northern Illinois

We thought the hogs would be to much up front for NIU and they were.  They started strong scoring 21 in the 1^st and ended strong score 17 in the 4^th.

LSU-9.5 vs Mississippi State

This was the first loss at home at night for LSU since Les Miles became the head coach.  We didn’t see it coming, but we didn’t see a lot of shit coming at us on Saturday.

South Carolina -21 at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is the other school we have to bet against each week, and they cover this wee against South Carolina.  I didn’t think Vandy was capable of scoring more than 17 on USC, but they put up twice that.

New Mexico -3 at New Mexico State

We took the push on the game, and was lucky to get it.  After leading 21-14 at halftime, New Mexico was outscored 14-3 in the 3^rd and needed 2 touchdowns in the 4^th to get us the push, if this was a loss this week would’ve been worse

Boise State -17 vs Louisiana Lafayette

BSU dominates at home on the blue turf and they didn’t let us down.  BSU ran all over Louisiana, closing the night out with a win.

college football week 4 best bets

After having back to back .500 weeks, we decided to keep it to an odd number of games this week to avoid that happening again.  We really hate getting juiced, it’s all about winning and losing.  Anyways, here are our 13 best bets for week 4 of college football.

Virginia Tech -8 vs Georgia Tech

Last week we recommended VT at home vs East Carolina, thinking that they’d be flying high at home with a loud crowd backing them after the upset at Ohio State.  Well we were wrong.  This week is a revenge/statement week.  Last week was a wake up call for VT.  VT had trouble getting anything going on offense until the 4Q.  Georgia Tech is coming off a near disaster of its own at home against Georgia Southern, needing a last second touchdown to get the win after blowing an early 35-10 lead.  VT are 6-1 in this series, and I have no reason to go against that, VT wins big.

Pittsburgh -7 home vs Iowa

Pittsburgh was another recommendation last week that came up short.  They got off to a slow start putting themselves in an early 16-0 deficit before mounting the come back and winning 45-25, missing the cover by a touchdown.  This is Iowa’s first road game of the season, while Pittsburgh is returning home after back to back road games.  Pittsburgh has been dominate in the run game this year and have a 1,033 to 232 rush yard advantage through 3 games.  Iowa hasn’t allowed many rushing yards this year limiting opponents to just 66 rushing yards a game, but I think the Pittsburgh offensive line changes that this week and they run all over Iowa. 

Duke -17 vs Tulane

Last week we were backers of Duke, and we told you of all there wonderful stats ATS, well they covered big, and improved on those stats, so we’re not going to cover those again here.  Tulane won for the first time last week at home against Southeast Louisiana in a pick em game by Vegas.  Tulane played on the road in week 1, and lost by 7 to Tulsa as a 4.5 point dog.  Duke is just to dominate on offense, including a break out performance last week by Wilson who ran for a school record of 245 yards.  Duke keeps it home streak going with another big win.

North Carolina +3 at East Carolina

Last week East Carolina went into Blacksburg and pulled off the upset in a trap game for Virginia Tech.  Like VT last week, this is a trap game for ECU, coming home after a big road upset, and they get to face North Carolina, oh and be favored in the game.  NCU is 6-2 in this series, and I fully expect that trend to continue this year, the fact that you’re getting points is icing on the cake, and a bit of a security blanket.  NCU is also coming off a buy, and the 2 campuses are only 110 miles apart, so I feel that NCU will have plenty of support in the stands. 

Texas A&M -33.5 at SMU

Last week we were supporters of Texas A&M and due to a lackluster start we were 1 score away from covering.  This week they go up against a worse team in SMU, whose HC recently resigned.  In this series TA&M is 4-0 with an average of 51-10.  So far this year SMU lost by 45 to Baylor and 37 points to North Texas.  Granted both of those games were on the road, but this is a very good TA&M team, and will want to make a statement after a not so great performance at home.  After the game last week, Sumlin said, “Guys weren’t very happy with how they played tonight.  In the locker room our guys were ho hum and pretty hard on themselves…..and that’s good.”  That’s how his players felt after a 25 point win.  Look for them to roll on the road.

Navy -6.5 vs Rutgers

Rutgers is coming off a depressing loss at home against Penn State, there new ‘rival’ in the Big Ten.  Rutgers was winning late, but came up short as Penn State went home with the win.  Navy is returning home after back to back road wins where they dominated the line of scrimmage.  Rutgers offense has been stagnate all year, and the defense gave up 269 rushing yards to Howard.  Howard!  And that was at home.  In this series the home team is 5-2 ATS, and we have no reason to go against that trend this year.  Navy runs over Rutgers.

Missouri -13.5 vs Indiana

Last week we were backers of Indiana.  We were under the impression that Indiana State was much improved from last season and that is why the game with them was so close.  It appears we might have been wrong.  Last week Indiana couldn’t stop BGSU, and when they were driving with a chance to put the game away and go up 10 they fumbled on the 12.  BGSU went on to score a touchdown on the next drive and Indiana was never able to regain the momentum.  Missouri on the other hand keeps exceeding everyones expectations each week.  Last year Missouri went into Indiana and won 45-28.  On top of that Indiana is 1-6 in last 7 road games, and are only 2-6-1 in last 9 overall.  Meanwhile Missouri is 4-1 in last 5 home games and 6-1-1 in last 8 non-conference.  Look for Missouri to keep exceeding expectations this week.

Washington -34.5 vs Georgia State

In our recap of week 3 we talked about finding teams that you can go against each week is just as valuable as finding teams you can back week to week.  Georgia State is a team that you should go against each week.  We had Georgia State in our final round of picks to bet against last week, but we couldn’t convince ourselves to back Air Force on the road by double digits.  We were right with that pick, but this is a week to go against Georgia State.  It’s the first road game of the year for them, and they have proven that they can’t stop anybody on defense at home, so we don’t believe they will drastically be able to stop someone on the road for the first time all season.  Washington shook off 2 bad games to start the season to blow out Illinois last week at home.  Washington starting QB was suspended for week 1 vs Hawaii, but since his return they have averaged 52 points per game and 500 yards per game, the offense continues to roll this week and the Huskies win BIG!

LSU -9.5 vs Mississippi State

LSU is 13-3 in last 16 and the favorite is 4-0 in last 4.  LSU posted back to back shutouts the past 2 weeks, and the defense hasn’t allowed a point for 31 straight possessions.  Mississippi State’s defense is allowing almost 400 yards of offense per game this year, and have yet to face a defense as good as LSU.  Les Miles teams at home at night are nearly unstoppable, and we don’t expect anything different in this game.

Arkansas -13.5 vs Northern Illinois

Last week Arkansas went on the road to Texas Tech and pulled out a huge 21 point victory, and has the best backfield in the SEC.  Arkansas HC is 3-0 against Northern Illinois during his time at Wisconsin, and this Arkansas team is built similar to those Wisconsin teams.  Arkansas will over power Northern Illinois in this game and control the line of scrimmage on both sides.  Arkansas runs all over them

South Carolina -21.5 at Vanderbilt

Remember earlier when we talked about the week 2 recap and finding teams to go against, well Vanderbilt is the other team we have selected to go against, but didn’t have faith in UMass last week.  We were wrong in that instance, and are regretting it.  Vanderbilt has proven that it is horrible.  The lines were incorrect in all 3 games they’ve played this week.  Even with an over adjusted line this isn’t enough points for Vanderbilt at home.  Go against Vanderbilt this week and every week for the rest of the season.

New Mexico -3.5 at New Mexico State

The visitor has won 4 of the last 6 in this meeting.  Last year New Mexico won 66-17.  New Mexico is coming off a bye, while NMSU is coming home after back to back road games.  New Mexico is 6-3-1 in last 10 in this series and 3-0-1 in last 4 on the road.  These 2 teams are competing for the worst rushing defense in FBS, but New Mexico can actually run the ball, averaging 300 yards per game.  They will use that to there advantage and run away with the victory and the cover.

Boise State -17 Louisiana-Lafayette

Louisiana is 2-6 in last 8 road games and 2-7 overall ATS.  This is also the second of back to back road trips for Louisiana after getting destroyed my Mississippi last week.  This is a much harder road trip with the long distance out west and playing in the elevation.  Boise State have won 28 straight non-conference home games.  Louisiana is allowing 544 yards per game against FBS opponents this year.  Look for Boise State to keep that home streak going, and to take advantage of the worst defense in college. 

Good luck this week and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 3 best bets

Last week our picks went 4-2 ATS, giving us a 4-6 mark on the season, as we are still digging out of that week 1 0-4 bomb.

Before I get into our week 3 picks I want to provide a little explanation on what we’re looking for.  We manage 5 different systems, 2 based on power ratings, and 3 based on score sheets.  Last week we had 2 systems go 8-8 ATS, 2 go 9-7 ATS and the 5^th went 10-6 ATS.  That last one was extra special because it was a score sheet based on what we expected each team to do with running/passing and turnovers/missed field goals.  We were pleasantly surprised at how simple it is to make the correct assumptions once you have a formidable backlog of stats to help make those decisions.  Anyways, last week we had 5 games where all 5 of our system agreed on who would cover the spread, and those 5 games went 4-1 ATS.  We had 3 more games where 4 of our 5 systems agreed, and those 3 games went 2-1 ATS, so of the 8 games that at least 4 of our 5 systems agreed on the ATS record was 6-2, which would be a phenomenal day. 

For week 3 we have 1 game in which all 5 of our systems agree, and 7 games in which 4 of our 5 systems agree.  Below are our picks based on those systems results.

Atlanta -6.5 vs Tampa Bay

Atlanta struggled on the road last week at Cincinnati, but that was a game outdoors, and against a better defense than New Orleans.  Tampa Bay has a better defense than Atlanta’s, but they are racking up the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, and are going on the road for the first time this year after losing 2 games at home.  Atlanta returning home, coming off a loss and laying less than a touchdown against an inferior opponent is the type of play we’re looking for.  4 of our 5 systems agree on this game with the lone outlier being the 13/14 score sheet, which is weighted down by the poor performances Atlanta put forth last year.

Green Bay +1.5 @ Detroit

In one power rating we have GB as a -7.5 favorite, in the other they are a -1.5 favorite.  The game expectations score sheet (went 10-6 last week) has them as a -7 point favorite.  Finally the 13/14 average score sheet has Green Bay as a pick em, with a line variance of 2.  This score sheet has had a line variance of 2 shows up 10 times since the start of the 2013 season, and has a record of 8-2 ATS, and cover the spread by an average of 6 points per.  Green Bay wins on the road.

Denver +5 @ Seattle

Nevermind the super bowl rematch, and that Denver wants revenge or that Seattle is out to prove the SB wasn’t a fluke.  Just don’t think about that stuff.  One of our power ratings has Denver as +6, which is the one system that doesn’t agree with the other 4.  The other power rating has Denver as +3, which is due to Seattle having home field.  That rating system actually has these 2 teams as a pick em right now on a neutral field.  Our 13/14 score sheet has Denver as a -1 point favorite, with a line variance of 6, which in the 6 occurrences since 2013 is 5-1 with an average cover mark of 3 points per.  The 14 and GE score sheets both have this game graded as pick em.

Carolina -3.5 vs Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is a public team, so you should be able to get better value with Carolina as the week goes on, but if you want to get them -3 and buy the hook now, I think that is a smart play.  One of the power ratings systems has Carolina as -8.5 point favorite, while the other has them as -4.5 point favorite.  The 13/14 score sheet has Carolina as a -5 favorite and a line variance of 1, which is 12-6 in it’s last 18 and average cover of 3 points per. 

San Diego 2.5 @ Buffalo

San Diego should be favored in this game, plain and simple.  Perhaps the early start on the east coast for a west coast team is in play here, but that didn’t affect Arizona last week, and I don’t expect it to hurt SD this week.  The 2 power ratings systems have the Chargers as -2.5 and -1.5 point favorites.  The GE score sheet has them as a -5 point favorite

Cleveland 1.5 vs Baltimore

The 1 outlier in all of my systems is a power rating that says the Browns should be +2 instead of +1.5.  That’s it, 1 outlier over a half a point.  Cleveland is good, better than most expected.  Baltimore shook the drama of Ray Rice off for a 3 hour period to beat Pittsburgh, and have the extra rest, but they must go to the hostile environment that is Cleveland, which is never an easy thing to do, but they are no longer escaping from anything, nor are they facing a team that is going to throw the ball 40+ times a game.  Cleveland will pound the ball on the ground, and that will cause the Ravens problems.  Browns get back to back home wins

Arizona +3 vs San Francisco

Similar to the Cleveland game, I have 1 outlier in my 5 systems, and it calls for Arizona to be +3.5, so only a 0.5 point difference.  The other 4 systems have Arizona rated as a favorite.  They did play well on the east coast in an early game with a backup QB none the less.  San Francisco has a better offense and defense than the Giants do, but I don’t believe the offense is as good as San Diego, which Arizona was able to hold to 18 points.  The defense leads the way again.

Wait, that’s only 7 games selected, and we had 8 that met all 4 systems or better.  So which team are we leaving off?  Why New Orleans of course.  While it’s tempting to lay 9 points on the Saints at home against Minnesota that just got destroyed at home, that would be a trap.  Peterson is playing this week, and I don’t think the New Orleans defense will get 4 picks.  New Orleans is good at home, but they just aren’t playing like a championship team yet, and are stuck in shoot outs.  You don’t cover a 9 point spread in a shoot out, so we’ll sit this game out.

Thanks for checking in this week, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

NFL week 2 best bets recap

Week 2 was much better than week 1.  The proper adjustments were made, and we marched to a 4-2 record on the week.  That brings our total NFL record to 4-6 through the first 2 weeks.  Here is a breakdown on what went right/wrong this week.

Pittsburgh +3 @ Baltimore

This was a bit of a disaster, and not the way I was hoping to start the week.  Baltimore looked like it was relieved to finally play and avoid the off field distractions that was the Ray Rice circus.  They focused that energy and executed.  They also ran the ball well, and didn’t make Flacco throw 40+ times.  Pittsburgh never got it going on offense.

Detroit +3 @ Carolina

What happens when you have 2 missed field goals, 2 fumbles and an interception?  You lose the game and don’t cover the spread.  That is exactly what happened here.  You have to protect the ball to win games, and the Lions just failed to do that.

Cincinnati -5 vs Atlanta

Cincy ran all over Atlanta.  It did cost them AJ Green.  As expected the New Orleans defense was overrated to start the year, and made the ATL offense look great instead of good. 

Houston -3 @ Oakland

This game was over at kickoff.  Houston defense showed up and shut down Oakland offense.  Take away the garbage time touchdown at the end of the game, and this was a clear blow out. 

St. Louis +5.5 @ Tampa Bay

I hated this game the whole time I had it played, but it worked out in the end.  The Rams defense finally looked like it should, and did benefit from Tampa trying to run the ball.  The offense stuck to the run, and was able to control the game, and they made just enough plays to come out with the victory.

Philadelphia +3 @ Indianapolis

Philly did it again, falling behind by 14 points going into half time only to come back and steal a win from Indy.  I couldn’t figure out why Philly wasn’t favored in this game, it must’ve been a pick em game and home field moved the needle to Indy.  Anyways the offense came through for Philly and Sproles/McCoy 2 headed backfield monster is going to be fun to watch all season.

That was week 2, come back in a couple of days for week 3 picks.  Again, week 2 was educational, and adjustments have been made.  Looking for an even better week in week 3.  As always, follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

college football week 3 best bets recap

Ugh, what a frustrating Saturday.  Our released picks ended up going 6-6 on Saturday, which put us at 7-7 for week 3.  That is back to back weeks of .500 selections, and that isn’t good enough.  I hate getting juiced, I’d rather lose, well not really but I really hate getting juiced on the day.

Along with finding a few teams that we believe are undervalued and riding through the season, we also like to look for teams that are over rated and play against them each week.  The 2 teams that we targeted for that this year was Georgia State and Vanderbilt.  This week we didn’t feel confident in Air Force laying double digits or UMass traveling to Nashville.  But we should have stuck to our manifesto as both Air Force and UMass went on the road and covered.  That was frustrating to watch.

In week 2 we had Maryland laying the points on the road at South Florida.  USF played them hard and had a decent running game, so thinking a below average NC State team coming to town this past weekend was a great opportunity to ride this Bull.  However, we were initially concerned about USF as they forced 6 Maryland turnovers, and still couldn’t get the win.  In the end, we didn’t put enough weight on that factor and backed the Bulls this week anyways.  It was the wrong decision.  Maryland isn’t that good, and USF is even worse.  We’ve decided to add USF to the list of Georgia State and Vanderbilt of schools to go against each week.

Indiana had so many chances to put away an inferior Bowling Green team, but they couldn’t.  Every time they got close they would suffer a self-inflicted wound and it cost them in the end as they weren’t able to overcome all of their mistakes. 

Pittsburgh got off to such a slow start that I swear I saw the training staff checking pulses on the sidelines to make sure the team was still alive.  They overcame the sluggish start to win by 17 but that wasn’t enough to get us to where we wanted to go.

Central Michigan looked nothing like the team that went into Purdue and pulled off the road upset last week.  This looked like the normal CMU team that we see each year.  This was a classic let down game.  Big road win, then going home versus a lesser opponent.  This was a trap and we should’ve laid off this game. 

Speaking of letdown games, Virginia Tech let East Carolina own them the whole game.  The offense couldn’t get anything going.  It looked to me like ECU was sitting in a zone defense, and didn’t let VT playmakers get past them.  This was another trap game, coming off the big upset victory of Ohio State the week before on the road.  We thought that there was no way Frank Beamer would ever let one of his teams get caught with their pants down after he just caught a team with its pants down.  We were wrong.

Late night Texas A&M looked solid, but we just laid to many points with them.  Don’t get us wrong, we still believe it was the right play, and they were close to covering a few times, but we unable to get that final touchdown that was needed.  A slow start, and a stalled drive at the end cost us this game. 

Georgia Southern and Virginia played tough, just like we thought they would.  Georgia Southern’s head coach must be one hell of a half time speaker, cause his boys came out a different team in the second half.  Meanwhile, Virginia won in a heavy weight battle home against Louisville.  They pulled off the upset, and continue to look like a solid team this year.  Remember Virginia going forward each week.

Duke, Ole Miss and Oklahoma all performed as expected.  Duke exceeded our expectations, and Ole Miss looks like a team to be reckoned with come SEC conference play.  We thought Oklahoma would run the score up on Tennessee, and they tried but couldn’t get it past 24. 

Finally we almost had the over in the Arkansas/Texas Tech game at halftime.  Half way through the 3^rd we were able to mark this one a win, as both teams couldn’t play defense.

So it was a frustrating week, but again another educational one.  Remember it’s not always about finding the hot teams and riding them, sometimes you need to find the bad teams and go against them, even when you’re concerned about their opponents.  Well that’s week 3 in the books, again we finished the week 7-7, bringing our season record to 21-18 or 53.8%, which means that we can’t keep having .500 weeks.  Another .500 week and we aren’t winning money anymore.  Turn in next week for our week 4 picks, and remember to follow me on twitter @Dustin_Dominiak

college football week 3 best bets part 2

Welcome to part 2 of college football week 3 best bets.  Last night wasn't a good start to the weekend, with North Texas acting like they weren't interested in playing for the first 2 1/2 quarters.  We have 12 more games that are solid plays for Saturday.

Indiana -7.5 @ Bowling Green

Indiana’s offense is legit, and can put up big numbers in a hurry.  BGSU has struggled on the defensive side of the ball this year, allowing 569 yds passing to Western Kentucky and 321 to VMI.  Last year Indiana won 42-10 at home, and covered the -2.5 point spread easily.  Last week BGSU lost it’s starting qb for the year with a hip injury.  Look for Indiana to get another big win

South Florida +1.5 vs North Carolina St

South Florida is coming off a home loss to Maryland, where there defense forced 6 turnovers.  NC State barely beat Georgia Southern at home in week 1, and last week trailed Old Dominion at home 21-10 before coming back to win.  Against the spread NC State is 0-7 in last 7, 2-9-1 in last 12 on road, 1-4 last 5 versus non-conference and 2-13 in last 15 as road favorites. 

Virginia Tech -10 vs East Carolina

VT is coming off a huge road upset of Ohio State, while East Carolina is coming off a hard fought loss at South Carolina.  These 2 teams are familiar with each other as they’ve played every year for the past 4 years.  In the past 5 meetings the home team is 4-1 against the spread.  Virginia Tech defense is playing aggressive and was able to force 3 turnovers last week.  The home crowd will be pumped up for this game, and Virginia Tech rides that energy to another big victory.

Central Michigan +6.5 vs Syracuse

Syracuse struggled in it’s season opener at home against Villanova, a game that went into 2 overtimes.  Central Michigan is coming off a big road upset of Purdue on the road.  Syracuse is 2-12 in last 14 in road openers.  Syracuse defense allowed 190 yds rushing to Villanova and the CMU run game is averaging 155 yds rushing per game.  Look for CMU to run over Syracuse this weekend and pull off the upset.

Pittsburgh -25.5 @ Florida International

Pittsburgh is coming off a big road victor at Boston College, while FIU is coming off back to back FCS opponents, one of which they lost.  FIU is 0-4 in last 4 versus the ACC and 2-5 in last 7 non-conference games.  Pitt is 4-0 in last 4 road games, 4-1 last 5 overall and 9-4 last 13 non-conference games. 

Georgia Southern +17 @ Georgia Tech

This is a much bigger game for Georgia Southern than it is for Georgia Tech.  Georgia Southern almost pulled off the upset at NC State in week 1, and then won big against an FCS opponent last week.  This game opened at Georgia Tech -20, so we left some points there, but it won’t matter.  Georgia Southern is 6-0 in last 6 non-conference games, 5-0 last 5 road games and 6-0 last 6 overall.  Meanwhile Georgia Tech is just 3-8-1 in last 12 overall and 1-4 last 5 at home.  I’ll take the points in this one.

Virginia +6.5 vs Louisville

This is Louisville first road game of the year.  Virginia is playing very good at home.  They opened the season versus ranked UCLA and nearly pulled off the upset with the defense completely shutting down the UCLA offense.  UCLA had 3 defensive touchdowns in that game, and those were the difference maker.  Virginia is 4-0 in last 4 overall and 3-1-1 at home in last 5.  Look for Virginia to keep it close

Duke -14 vs Kansas

Duke is on a roll since the start of last season, and are coming off a big 17 point victory on the road last week.  Kanas squeaked out a win versus Southeast Missouri State.  Kansas is 3-14 in road openers, 0-7-1 in last 8 non-conference, 1-4 last 5 overall and 7-18-1 last 26 on the road.  Duke is 3-0-1 in last 4 at home and 8-2-1 in last 11 overall. 

Arkansas at Texas Tech over 64 points

2 high flying offenses here, and not much defense.  The over for Arkansas is 8-2-1 in last 11 overall and 16-4-1 in last 21 road games.  The over in Texas Tech games is 4-1 last 5 at home and 14-5 in last 19 overall.  Arkansas games are averaging 73 points so far this year while Texas Tech games are averaging 66.

Mississippi -27.5 vs Louisiana

Louisiana is coming off a devastating upset at home against Louisiana Tech last week.  Mississippi is playing at home for the first time this year after opening on a neutral site and then playing on the road at Vanderbilt last week.  Mississippi is scoring points at will since the 4^th quarter of the 1^st game.  Ole Miss is 20-6 in last 26 non-conference, 5-2 last 7 at home and 7-3 last 10 overall.  Louisiana is 2-5 last 7 on the road and 2-6 last 8 overall.  Mississippi wins big in front of a rowdy home crowd.

Oklahoma -21 vs Tennessee

Last week we were backing Tennessee thinking the young team would continue to feed off the home crowd, and if it weren’t for 2 missed field goals we would’ve got the cover.  This is the first road game for a team that plays 20 freshman, and that game is in Norman against a #4 ranked team in the nation.  Oh and that team has won it’s first 2 games by an average of 38 points.  Also, don’t underscore the fact that Bob Stoops hates the SEC and every school in it.  If he gets a chance to run up the score against one, I believe he will.

Texas A&M -31.5 vs Rice

Kenny Hill is lighting up the college football scene, and leading one of the top offenses in the nation.  Texas A&M is averaging 458 passing yds a game and Rice gave up 295 yds passing to ND.  Texas A&M of course has the big upset win at South Carolina in Kenny Hill’s coming out party.  Rice opened at Notre Dame where they got blown out 48-17.  If Notre Dame can score 48 on Rice, Texas A&M can score 70.